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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch has become the fastest selling video game system of all time in the US

flashfire926 on 07 January 2018
Hustensaft said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Mario and Zelda have extremely high attachment rates. If you compare them between Europe and US, in EU they're signficantly higher. That could be looked at that in EU, mostly Zelda/Mario/Nintendo fans bought a Switch, whereas in the US the Switch got through to a larger crowd (although the contrary to that is, that they didn't buy Zelda/Mario, but want other games). Additionaly, this can also mean that, as games are tied to physical discs, sharing them is very simple, and therefore limits software sales.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

 

smash is more popular than zelda too. So they have Smash and Pokemon (and even mariokart 9) left as their biggest sellers.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Dgc1808 on 07 January 2018

Awesome. I hope 3rd parties take the system seriously going forward.



4 ≈ One

Miyamotoo on 07 January 2018
Hustensaft said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

 

-Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Smash Bros are all bigger than Zelda. Also MK8D is port of Wii U MK game, we will probably have MK9 on Switch also, same like onother 3D Mario, 2D Mario, other Nintendo IPs, new IPs, 3rd party exclusives..

-Actually Switch is already selling to people that are not only Nintendo fans, we have people that are buying Switch also to play 3rd party games in full handheld model, and we can expect that will increase because stronger and bigger 3rd party will come to Switch.

-US is traditionally strongest market for Nintendo, like Europe is for Sony.

-Switch in US and Japan is around $300, only in Europe is 330e, so maybe Nintendo stealthy lower price to be on same level like in US and Japan. I wouldnt expect lower price than that any time soon (before official price cut that will probably be earliest around holiday 2018.).



Alkibiádēs on 07 January 2018
Trumpstyle said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough
I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Chances that Switch will outsell Ps4 WW is just slim. First it's very unlikely it will even outsell the ps4 in US (lifetime). The console in it's third year will likely start to fizzle out because of no third-party support. It will probably get some japanese support but basically 0 % from western developers (maybe some indie support and a AAA game). The console hardware performance is just to low to get support. 

Even if it beat the ps4 in US it will be with a small margin and won't make up for the big loss in Europe.

Third Switch aren't beating the Wii in sales and PS4 will easily beat it. Will sell at a minimun 110+ million but will probably reach 130+ million.

You must have missed the fact that the Switch is an indie gold mine and this will continue for years to come. Indie games are becoming more and more important to the industry... Minecraft started out as an indie game, Sonic Mania was developed by indie developers, Rocket League, PUBG, Cuphead, etc. 

Just this year I bought Steamworld Dig 2, Sonic Mania, Steamworld Heist: Ultimate Edition, Enter the Gungeon, Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove and Stardew Valley. All highly rated games that were very successful on the Switch. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

fatslob-:O on 07 January 2018
tbone51 said:

Only wanted to point out Japan. Its under 3ds but only because switch is still

Supply restraint and it'll have a stronger year 2 than 3ds. Hell switch has a chance to do 6mil next year if supply and other factorscome in. Its not guaranteed though but don't look at switch sales lifetime like it'll be under 3ds because 3ds is winning. Don't forget 3ds peak year was year1

Switch's supply issue in Japan was sorted out when it's MSRP reached towards within 5% near the end of December so immediate demand was met ... 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Well first, PS4 is going to have to make up two gaps: US and Japan. That's the reason PS4 won't beat out Switch. Because consoles are momentum driven and the Switch has stronger momentum than the PS4, Switch will outsell it in those regions. Regardless, let's look at Japan.

In about the systems's 4th year, PS4 has sold about 5 million systems in Japan. The system won't be able to break 10 million LTD. The Switch has already sold at least half of that in a single year. Right now, the 3DS has sold 23 million in Japan. If we assume that the Switch sells less (which is dumb and I'll say why in a minute), then the Switch will sell about 20 million LTD in that region. This means, at a minimum, PS4's European sales will have to make up a gap of 10 million plus any gap that comes out of the US. But this is assuming the Switch is closer to 3DS sales than it is to DS sales. The PS2 sold about 23 million units. So Switch could easily sell 25 million units if the pace continues (and given the shortages of even games, I don't see it slowing). The reason the 3DS is selling faster is that it was the successor to the most successful system in Japan. The Switch didn't take off for a few months in Japan like it did in the US because Zelda is less popular there. Once Mario Kart and Splatoon came out, the system became sold out. So when you compare those two systems, a life to date tracking is going to be off because the Switch started slower and ramped up while the 3DS started strong and then fizzled out (which is why the price cut). 

The idea that PS4 will still outsell Switch is a lack of understanding of simple arithmetic and wishful thinking. In order for PS4 to outsell Switch, the difference in European sales needs to be greater than the difference in both US sales and Japan sales. And Switch isn't doing too bad in Europe as its selling about the same as it is in the US (based on Nintendo earnings releases). Moreover, Europe is not this magical sales region. If you look at historical sales, the best selling systems sold about the same in Europe and the US. PS4 is selling about the same in the US as it is in Europe (only about 3 million off). So no, it's not going to happen.

That assumes that the Switch will end up with a gap in it's favour or let alone a significant one and consoles are momentum driven but the 3DS with it's price cut has beaten the Switch every month in their first year since August aside from October and December will the 3DS's largest margin of victory yet if Nintendo's own preliminary figures are to be believed ... (~10M as of December 10th and on that same date in the 3DS's first year it was ~9.5M units according VGC in which the 3DS has just reduced the gap to a measly 500K!) 

Momentum driven indeed but not in the way you think that the Switch when it's clearly more front loaded than the other systems including the 3DS itself ... 

PS4 won't be able to break 10M units even though it's been tracking ahead of the PS3 in Japan for 4 years now in which the PS3 was able to sell 10M units during it's lifetime in Japan ? 

You say Switch will outsell PS4 in the US based off of 10 months of data yet I can't use those same 10 months of data against it in Japan compared to the 3DS ? Double standards much ?  

Furthermore you over implicate PS4 surmounting difficulties against building a sizable lead against the Switch in Europe when PS4 in it's lifetime will probably reach having over a 2x advantage against the Switch's predecessor while the Switch itself only has a 4% lead (?!) against the 3DS in Europe during similar point in their lifetimes according to VGC (3DS was at 2.28M units sold in Europe, December 10th 2011 while the Switch totals ~2.37M units at December 9th 2017) plus it's ironic that you describe the 3DS as being "fizzled out" even though it still outsold the Switch in Japan by a comfortable margin during the holidays and will go to do similar numbers with the Switch WW once we have all of the data for the end of last year ... 

@Bold This must be what people call "satire" when the so called "VideoGameAccountant" ignores the numbers at hand and the logic that comes with it since it doesn't suit his argument ...  

Also I beg to differ that Europe is not this "magical sales region", maybe not to either Microsoft or Nintendo anymore but it accounts for nearly 40% of Sony's total PS4 hardware sales. It's Japan who is not this magical sales region since PS4 will probably nearly double the deficit it has in Japan with the Switch with the surplus it has in Europe if VGC's numbers are to be believed ... 



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duduspace1 on 07 January 2018
StreaK said:
duduspace1 said:

https://nintendosoup.com/japan-fifa-18-switch-sees-sudden-increase-sales-may-overtake-ps4-version/

Or how does that explain the below when the stereotype is that Nintendo guys generally do not play FIFA sports games:

 

"A FIFA game selling more on Nintendo hardware than Sony may soon become reality in Japan.

According to stats provided by Dengeki Online, FIFA 18 sold 16,006 copies on Nintendo Switch in Japan last week. The huge bump in sales surprised many Japanese commentators as the Switch version has been consistently selling between 2000 to 6000 copies a week.

As of last week, the PS4 version of FIFA 18 has sold 77,892 copies lifetime, while the Switch version moved 64,379 copies. Since the PS4 version has slipped below Dengeki Online’s sales charts from Week 8 (latest week is Week 14), it’s safe to assume FIFA 18 Switch will overtake FIFA 18 PS4 in the weeks to come as long as it continues to maintain its sales momentum."

 

OMG, do you think I care if a FIFA game sells more in Japan on the switch than the PS4??? Who buys FIFA games there anyway??? Irrelevant. I ONLY care about worldwide numbers. Who freaking cares about individual territories??? If the PS4 would be a total flop in my country but was a total success elsewhere I'd still be playing on it. The PS3 was a European favoured console and to me, was a success over the 360 because of those European numbers. It sold enough in NA and Japan to make the overall worldwide numbers a success.

The point of the post eludes you........I am not really interested in what you care or don't care about. The post is pointing out a data trend that should make you reexamine your claim that only Nintendo fanboys are buying the switch. If a game that typically doesn't do well on Nintendo systems suddenly starts doing so well on the switch as to be selling more than it does on the PS4, that is certain confirmation that those who typically do not buy Nintendo systems are buying the switch. Furthermore, if you see this trend being repeated in Europe (and I suspect this might happen soon in France), it is a sure sign that the switch is selling well to those who typically would not buy it.



peachbuggy on 07 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

I bought the Zombie U bundle at 390€ back in 2012 in Europe, i thought the price was similar to that in USA, my bad.

But yeah, i don't see PS4 selling 40 million in USA. The 35 million range looks more likely, even with a 2020 release. Current PS4 sales are a bit over 23 million, i don't see PS4 almost double that.

For Switch, after almost 5m in 2017, i see at least 2 years in the 7/8m range, and then a steadily drop to 4-6m years.

PS4 reaching 35M in USA would already be quite good, but yes Switch outselling PS4 in USA is possible outcome.

peachbuggy said:

Even in the days the Wii and DS were dominating in the U.K., the stores still had far more shelf space for Ps360. When the 3DS was doing pretty well and the ps4/xbone were out, the older models (Ps360) still had more shelf space than it. I've often thought there was something fishy going on. (Backhanders?) Nintendo really ought to have more presence here, particularly in regards to store shelf space. A dedicated office and proper  sales reps to ensure shelf space would be a start.

So do you think stores tried to have less profits by not giving Nintendo shelf space? Odd.

SpokenTruth said:

I laughed a lot at this =]

Probelas said:

Fake News made up by Nintendo , I really doubt that

Companies can't publically lie like that... They may as much narrow the point to its most favorable portion.

duduspace1 said:

Beware......of the 'Hybrid Effect'. This console is unlike anything you've ever seen Bruv and weird things are happening. For example.....FIFA 18 on the switch sold more than FIFA 18 on the PS4 in Japan this past week according to Famitsu. Don't be too surprised if you see that happen soon in a European country like France in the very near future.

And in UK Fifa18 marketshare for Switch was 1%, so Switch will be a flop?

VideoGameAccountant said:

Quick reply but from reading through the thread, there are two things I want to point out.

Switch's Early Success Means Future Success
The console business is momentum based. Usually, if you get out the door running, you'll have a successful console. Even in situations where the manufacturer turns it around, it's mostly negligible. The 3DS is a good example of that. After a lackluster launch, Nintendo cut the price by $80 which saved the system. Even still, after 7 years it's only sold about 70 million. The GBA sold 80 million despite only getting about 4 years on the market.

Because the Switch is selling so well in Japan and the US, major publishers are going to be rushing to get games on it. We are already seeing this in Japan and it will likely happen very soon in the US. With news that Switch is the fastest selling console, don't be surprised if the next earnings releases from major US publishers mention that they are making games for the Switch.

This is the momentum. A strong selling console builds an install base. The big install base attracts developers who make more games. More games drive the install base. Even though everyone clamors that the Wii didn't have a lot of third party support, it did get a lot of third party games. It was just that developers often treated them as side projects due to "third party games don't sell on Wii." This isn't the case on Switch with DOOM, Skyrim and Sonic Mania (among others) selling well on the Switch. It will get tons of games that will drive the install base. This is the big takeaway that no one is talking about.

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough
I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

No man, PS4 is not only winning in Europe, it also wins on RotW, in case you may not remember they still count.

Case in point, PS4 reached 10M 1 week faster than Switch.

Yes it is indeed odd and i have no idea why they did it. So my only explanation was there could be some backhand "murky" deals going on.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

kazuyamishima on 08 January 2018

Nintendo made A right move by doing the switch hybrid (well mostly handled)

All home console's after the ps2 made only decent numbers in Japan:
- Wii almost made 13 millions
- PS3 almost made 11 millions
- PS4 could end in the same range of the PS3.



DonFerrari on 08 January 2018
peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

PS4 reaching 35M in USA would already be quite good, but yes Switch outselling PS4 in USA is possible outcome.

So do you think stores tried to have less profits by not giving Nintendo shelf space? Odd.

I laughed a lot at this =]

Companies can't publically lie like that... They may as much narrow the point to its most favorable portion.

And in UK Fifa18 marketshare for Switch was 1%, so Switch will be a flop?

No man, PS4 is not only winning in Europe, it also wins on RotW, in case you may not remember they still count.

Case in point, PS4 reached 10M 1 week faster than Switch.

Yes it is indeed odd and i have no idea why they did it. So my only explanation was there could be some backhand "murky" deals going on.

It is also possible that for the stores around where you go, the sales for Nintendo is lower than in other regions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

peachbuggy on 10 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Yes it is indeed odd and i have no idea why they did it. So my only explanation was there could be some backhand "murky" deals going on.

It is also possible that for the stores around where you go, the sales for Nintendo is lower than in other regions.

It seems to be the case practically wherever i go and the U.K. is a fairly small country. 



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!