I don't get these guaranteed 90-150m for Switch comments. I love mine, but looking around I see a different picture. Maybe it will, but it's oh so early. Also next gen is likely 2 years off, which will see people buying those. Will Switch follow and give a new more powerful upgrade, or will it release a New system. So firstly I question it having the longevity to sell those numbers.
Then I look at the people in general buying Switch. Looking around the communities I belong to, a huge chunk of the core gamers and fans already have one. There might be people not on board yet, but I'm not convinced this is a huge growth area. There won't be huge growth into the fan base that mainly plays Cod, Fifa and GTA.
Lots of hipsters seem to have jumped on board too. Alongside trend following mums who owned a Wii, and see it as a safe environment. It is nice to see them come back from being lost to tablets and phone games. I think it is also this section which is distorting online versus store sales. I look at this section as the most fickle too. They could grow and explode, or move on to the next hot thing. I think I need another year to decide here.
Then onto portable gamers. This is another area that needs more watching before flippant guarantees. I didn't know many portable only people pre Switch in honesty. I'm surprised how many people only play portable and have mostly never owned mainstream consoles. To an extent I Don't feel qualified to judge it's growth.
I just don't see that level. I can see 15-20m this year and next happily. Then I can't see anything but decline. I can easily see it topping out below 80m. That's all before I See how the games shape up. If the gaming content was too front loaded into last year, I might revise that 80m estimate down too. It is just so soon to be giving a current gen gold medal to a console that has sold around 15m.
