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Forums - Gaming Discussion - 130 million switches by 2022?! Virtually impossible.

ironmanDX on 20 September 2017
Lenny93 said:
A Sony version of the Switch will do as well as the Move did relatively to the Wii.

This may offend some so I have you covered.



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torok on 20 September 2017

Well, since it's pretty much supply constrained, any kind of prediction now is hard (that's exactly why I created the Switch vs 3DS thread).

But well, that prediction was highly optimistic because it basically depends on Switch tracking to either reach almost 200M lifetime or do less than DS/PS2 but breaking all records from the Wii. Tough mission here.

I'm quite confident Switch will be successful, but I think it's hard to predict it as THE most successful console of all time. Specially because it launched in a bad time, mid-gen. Nintendo just cancelled the Wii U and started from scratch (and it was a great call). But that also means that it will get 3 to 4 years at most before brutally more capable devices arrive.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

Jranation on 20 September 2017
Lenny93 said:
A Sony version of the Switch will do as well as the Move did relatively to the Wii.

This!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

JRPGfan on 20 September 2017
niceguygameplayer said:

http://n4g.com/news/2102650/market-analyst-firm-expects-nintendo-to-sell-130-million-switches-by-2022

I would understand if this was an April first joke, but cmon. Even the PS2 could not match that in only 5 years. The DS and Wii didn't either. Does this analyst firm have weed smoking parties? Even Pachter would not say such ridiculousness. 

After demand is met, the games start winding down (I don't think Nintendo can possibly keep up this  first party release schedule for a second or third year), the novelty of the Switch wears off, and Sony and other companies copy the Switch formula, I think Switch sales will likely not even match PS4. PS5 will come and crush it in a couple of years, most likely. It may have switch like features. Or Sony may release a portable PS4 type of system that can be "docked" like the Switch. It would have to be digital download only. 

I think the best idea to combat Switch is to make a unique system besides the PS5 or a portable PS4. PSP2 with docking would be awesome! As powerful as PS4 but with unique cartridge games just for the system. PS4 digital games could be downloaded on it for portable play. However, I don't think Sony has to copy Switch at all. The PS4 will continue to do great and when PS5 comes along, it will make Switch look archaic. 

I think Switch will do very well for two to three years and then taper off. Will it be a large success? I think it will. I think 75 million to 100 lifetime. 130 million in 5 years. Please. 

Switch will do ~10-12m this year (2017) (depending on how many they can make).

That ONLY leaves about 120m over a periode of... 5 years (2018 -> end of 2022).

120m / 5 years = 24m pr year.

Sounds Easy :p

 

Meanwhile Sony will be lucky if they do 20m this year.... which is probably the peak year for the PS4.



Qwark on 20 September 2017

The Switch obviously could sell 130 million units in 5 years. But Nintendo can't produce 130 million units in that timeframe ;).



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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Miyamotoo on 20 September 2017

This is very hard achievable, but impossible!? Never say never.



JRPGfan on 20 September 2017
Qwark said:
The Switch obviously could sell 130 million units in 5 years. But Nintendo can't produce 130 million units in that timeframe ;).

How many consoles can/have avg ~24m pr year?

This is most likely the peak year for the PS4, and most are saying 20m sold through as the max.

 

Miyamotoo said:

This is very hard achievable, but impossible!? Never say never.

Someone has to be the first to do the Impossible... however I dont think the Switch will be that.

This "goal" or prediction is too high, its unrealistic.



Miyamotoo on 20 September 2017
JRPGfan said:

 

Miyamotoo said:

This is very hard achievable, but impossible!? Never say never.

Someone has to be the first to do the Impossible... however I dont think the Switch will be that.

This "goal" or prediction is too high, its unrealistic.

Unrealistic and impossible are two different things.



EricFabian on 20 September 2017
JRPGfan said:
Qwark said:
The Switch obviously could sell 130 million units in 5 years. But Nintendo can't produce 130 million units in that timeframe ;).

How many consoles can/have avg ~24m pr year?

This is most likely the peak year for the PS4, and most are saying 20m sold through as the max.

DS had



Click HERE and be happy 

VGPolyglot on 20 September 2017

I agree that it is unlikely to happen. However, I think you could get your word across in better ways than you have.