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Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

pastro243 on 27 June 2017
Shadow1980 said:
Slarvax said:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=241501294

Best-guess estimates are apparently:

[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 102K

And with that I'll have to update my charts. I hate not having exact numbers anymore, but this'll have to do. Hopefully the margins of error for the best predictors aren't too far off. The #1 guy has the Switch beating the PS4 by 10k when the PS4 was the top system in May, so that means the margin of error is at least 2.5 to 3 percent, assuming the PS4's victory was very narrow.

wait, didn't the ps4 win? I'ts late and I'm sick so maybe I'm talking stupid things lol



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JRPGfan on 27 June 2017
pastro243 said:
Shadow1980 said:

Best-guess estimates are apparently:

[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 102K

And with that I'll have to update my charts. I hate not having exact numbers anymore, but this'll have to do. Hopefully the margins of error for the best predictors aren't too far off. The #1 guy has the Switch beating the PS4 by 10k when the PS4 was the top system in May, so that means the margin of error is at least 2.5 to 3 percent, assuming the PS4's victory was very narrow.

wait, didn't the ps4 win? I'ts late and I'm sick so maybe I'm talking stupid things lol

The "closest" means it was the least units off, of all 3.

Lets say  the real numbers where like:

200k PS4, 190k NSW, and 100k XB1.

That would mean that user guessed 15k wrong on PS4, 5k on Switch, and 2k on the XB1 = 22k off total.

That could still be the "best" / " closest" guess anyone made, even if it did have NSW>PS4, which we know isnt true.



Barkley on 27 June 2017
TheBlackNaruto said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

The sand castle comment was a typo. I meant to say "King of a Sand Castle." Basically, PS4 is top selling, but its a false victory as its sales are likely down.

Okay you still aren't  making sense....you keep saying PS4 sales are likely down when we have official numbers that say they are up year on year. 7 million in the same time frame that they did 5 million last year. So why do you keep saying you are guessing it is down when you have the actual data that says it is up?

WIth a name like that you'd think he'd be up to speed on the numbers.

7 Million sold between January 1st and June 11th, sales definitely aren't down, and considering the second half of the year sales are always bigger there's a good chance this will be PS4's best selling year yet.



Kerotan on 27 June 2017
Barkley said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Okay you still aren't  making sense....you keep saying PS4 sales are likely down when we have official numbers that say they are up year on year. 7 million in the same time frame that they did 5 million last year. So why do you keep saying you are guessing it is down when you have the actual data that says it is up?

WIth a name like that you'd think he'd be up to speed on the numbers.

7 Million sold between January 1st and June 11th, sales definitely aren't down, and considering the second half of the year sales are always bigger there's a good chance this will be PS4's best selling year yet.

Lol I was just going to say that. 

 

The narrative of ps4 having peaked needs to end. 



Train wreck on 27 June 2017
TheBlackNaruto said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

XBox+PS4 is up vs XBox360+PS3 in US. That may be what you're thinking. Keep in mind the time period you'd be comparing would be 2008 or 2009 in the height of the Great Recession

 

The comparison would only be between May of 2016 and May of 2017. If you adjust the Switch out, you would seen total hardware spending decline. This is based on A)NPD Analyst stating the cause for the increase is Nintendo Switch and B)The growth in spending was only 7% (or 9 million). If the sales trend is the same as in Japan, you could see monthly sales for Switch about 140-160K (of course, this is just a guess on my part). The reason I'm saying it would be effecting the PS4 is because outside of the 3DS, it's the only 8th Gen system that is selling well. Nintendo is projecting it to sell about the same as last year which, globally, was only a few million. It's an estimate on my part. Nevertheless, if hardware sales were down, I'd expect the PS4 to be down as well.

The sand castle comment was a typo. I meant to say "King of a Sand Castle." Basically, PS4 is top selling, but its a false victory as its sales are likely down. I don't know about Year over Year to be honest. I don't think they mentioned that in the NPD analysis (though they did say its, plus XBox One, up over 360+PS3

I do think Sony is going to see a decline this year. The company is projecting fewer shipments, but I think it will be a bit worse than they think. The PS4 success is really XBox One and Wii U's lose. Both Microsoft and Nintendo made major missteps which Sony was able to capitalize (or at least not repeat themselves). I think it will be harder with another strong selling system on the market as an alternative. Gen 8 is odd because you see lower hardware and software sales but Big Budget game sales are up. Gen 8 is the generation of consolidation. Overall, everything is down but a few key players are doing well. I think competition changes the current norm up a bit. 

Okay you still aren't  making sense....you keep saying PS4 sales are likely down when we have official numbers that say they are up year on year. 7 million in the same time frame that they did 5 million last year. So why do you keep saying you are guessing it is down when you have the actual data that says it is up?

I'm guessing its the same reason why he thinks that Sony is going to lose Japanese support to the Switch in Japan all of a sudden.



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Teeqoz on 27 June 2017
Shadow1980 said:
Slarvax said:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=241501294

Best-guess estimates are apparently:

[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 102K

And with that I'll have to update my charts. I hate not having exact numbers anymore, but this'll have to do. Hopefully the margins of error for the best predictors aren't too far off. The #1 guy has the Switch beating the PS4 by 10k when the PS4 was the top system in May, so that means the margin of error is at least 2.5 to 3 percent, assuming the PS4's victory was very narrow.

How is the NeoGAF best guess calculated? Is it based on lowest total difference (as in 10k off the Switch adds 10k, 5k off the PS4 adds 5k etc.), or best percentage difference (as in 10k off a system that sold 100k adds 10, while 10k off a system that sold 200k adds 5)? You should be able to come closer to an estimate based on that.

 

EDIT: It appears that it's the cumulative unit difference that decides, so I'll do my best to work out a definitive range based on that thread.

EDIT2: Well, it seems literally everyone in that thread overestimated the Switch, so you can't really work out where it should be except above like 140k... Not much information from that number haha.



JRPGfan on 27 June 2017
BraLoD said:

Were people expecting the PS4 to beat the Switch? Not really keeping up with Amazon anymore xP

Yes, May was close but PS4 appeared to be winning that month.

June isnt close, PS4 is handly winning that (this) one.



squibbfire on 27 June 2017

I wonder how switch sales will look this fall...especially with Scorpio coming out and price drops....used ps4 right now is 199. Black friday deals are going to be amazeballs.



squibbfire on 27 June 2017
JRPGfan said:

Btw JRPFan..

used ps4 is 199 now.



JRPGfan on 27 June 2017
squibbfire said:
I wonder how switch sales will look this fall...especially with Scorpio coming out and price drops....used ps4 right now is 199. Black friday deals are going to be amazeballs.

I think a new PS4 slim, in the holidays will be 199$..... also hopeing Sony are looking at 7nm and thinking about shrinking the chip.

Yeah Im curious to see what first year sales for switch end up looking like.