thats a good start!

hopefully it can be maybe 10-15% by years end would be amazing!

yeah, it will take some time, but it will eventually seep into the market, especially as more people here in the states buy more HDTV's...me included :(

More likely it has 1-2% but still that is better than nothing :)

I think a main reason your seeing such a quick adoption of blue-ray vs dvd (in terms of new releases) is it's not so much a new technology as a upgraded one. What I mean by that is people already know about discs.

But I do not think you will see the replacement of dvds like we saw with vhs. ie people buying movies they already have on dvd with a few exception.

Right now I think download is to DVD as DVD was to VHS. IMO

Exactly.  When one buys a Blu-Ray player, they can still play all their old DVDs, and they'll look better to boot.  When one bought a DVD player back in 1999, it was either keep a separate VHS player around or get rid of your VHS tapes.

The transition to between formats is much less of a hassle this time around. 

Well, the title is a little misleading, but from what I can glean BR would indeed seem to be enjoying a faster adoption that DVD did (not doubt aided by the fact that a BR player is essentially backwards compatible with DVDs and the increasing penetration of HD TVs).

Personally I'm now expected to see newer releases (some of them anyway) start to try and lure purchasers to BR by offering HD extras, BR only content, extra content only available using BR Live, etc, as the studios start to put their weight behind BR.

The fact that BD players are back compatible with SD DVD is helping alot. That was one aspect the VHS to DVD didn't enjoy. There was alot of resistance (for all that are old enough to remember) to re-buy their movie collection from VHS to DVD.

Right now, I would say it is definitely where it should be. A market like this takes a while. If you look at the HD TV market, it is finally tipping 10 years later. Now stores are finally putting away their CRT TVs. I saw this happening in Japan when I was there in 2005. It was starting to happen in the US in 2007.

Whatever the percentage is it is clear that blu ray will be a worthwhile investment for Sony and thankfully the transition is painless. With ever increasing royalties Sony will be rolling in cash. I hope that this will help in geting Sony to do some price cuts soon with the ps3.

edit- my 500th post, at this rate I should reach 1000 before Christmas :)

They need to get disc prices down. Around here its ~35Euro which is ridiculous. If 6% is sales it will be almost 2.5 times as much in revenue because a normal DVD costs 15.

 "With ever increasing royalties Sony will be rolling in cash"

 I think they will need a couple of years until they get a return on their money. They paid hundreds of millions in R&D, promoting, possibly some money for persuading studios. This will not be repaid fast. On the other hand if BluRay discs are truly the next DVD the money will keep flowing for a long time.

Actually it makes more sense to compare everything. Here's 3 assumptions why.

Assumption 1. Early adopters to Blu-ray are likely more hardcore movie buffs.

Assumption 2. Hardcore movie goers are more likely to buy movies the days they release.

Assumption 3. The top 20 are likely mostly comprised of movies that have just released.

Assumption 4. Sales the first few weeks are likely not very frontloaded. A lot less so then for example videogames.

In otherwords, they were basically cherry picking to make themselves look good. Like when microsft talks about how it's console has generated the most revenue despite being outsold by everyone in terms of pure numbers of stuff.

Don't underestimate the market of people who just walk in and end up buying movies they never intended to get... etc..