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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

I was going through the January 31st, 2018 posts thinking they were from today...



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ZhugeEX said:
I like how this was written by Nintendo corporate.

What about now? 



Mbolibombo said:
Thread is hilarious.

U nailed it, u nailed it friend.



My eyes are open.



We need another update.



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RolStoppable said:
OTBWY said:
We need another update.

The next update will come at the end of July with Nintendo's latest financial report.

While Switch Lite got announced today and the 18m forecast seems to be easy to meet now, I don't expect an upwards revision with the next financial report because revisions are very rare to occur after Q1 of a given fiscal year.

Previously I thought the 18m forecast was conservative, and perhaps that forecast was only including shipments of the currently released model and that a new model launch wasn't included. But 18m for just the normal switch seems too high with a $199 lite on the market.

I now expect them to ship 22m or even more this fiscal year. Last years forecast was obviously way too high from the offset, and this years forecast seems too low. They don't seem very good at forecasting.

According to VGC switch is up 23% YoY, which if maintained would end the calendar year with 20m sold, and now with the lite they may even go beyond that. The only way I see them shipping less than 20m is if they woefully under-produce the Switch Lite.



Prediction:Switch will go past 100 million and max out at 110



So we got another eye opening report.

The most surprising thing to look back to, is how I didn't expect many of the franchises would sell as well as they did. I mean, BotW is easily the best selling title of the franchise. I can see the same thing happening with Fire Emblem Three Houses.



OTBWY said:
So we got another eye opening report.

The most surprising thing to look back to, is how I didn't expect many of the franchises would sell as well as they did. I mean, BotW is easily the best selling title of the franchise. I can see the same thing happening with Fire Emblem Three Houses.

and Animal Crossing!



Best selling zelda, best selling 3d mario, best selling super smash, best selling mario party is nailed on, best selling xenoblade and switch will have the best selling fire emblem by a country mile. I also wouldn't be surprised if luigi's mansion 3 became the best selling luigi's mansion within one year ( 6m sales of dark moon to beat). If you discount the pack in sales of wii sports then nintendo software sales are as strong as ever, one single game may not sell mario kart wii numbers (37.7m) but so many other franchises are beating their wii era iterations.

Last edited by Metroid33slayer - on 30 July 2019