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Forums - Gaming Discussion - If DS was a fluke where's the "inevitable" handheld decline?

Teeqoz on 09 December 2016
Soundwave said:
Teeqoz said:

The GBA sold a lot faster than the 3DS, and would've passed 100 million easily if it had gone as long without a successor as the 3DS had. The DS launched only 3 and a half years after the GBA did. Meanwhile, the 3DS launched nearly 6 years ago and is still about 20 million behind the 3DS...

You're never going to see a video game system sell DS numbers again I don't think. Not Playstation, not XBox, not anything from Nintendo. 

Dedicated hardware will be replaced by streaming before you see a 150 million system video game system again. 

I'm not sure if you are disagreeing with me here, but I certainly don't disagree with that.



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tak13 on 09 December 2016
Teeqoz said:
tak13 said:
                               

Enough with that...

Fat ds replaced gba  in the time period you cite. It  sold only 18m in two years, the real damage was made by ds lite in gba's 5th year-6th year! Fat ds had a very slow start and didn't really have any significant effect in gba sales, plus that gba was in decline before fat ds release... GBA would have barely sold 100m if it hasn't had a successor in 2004.

The unpleasant thing is the decline in NA but 3DS will have sold 25m+ there, that's very good but in Japan where smartphon gaming is bigger, 3DS has stomped gba.

What will Nintendo do? Mobile games for Nintendo are a synergy with their core business, it won't become their focus.

Look what Pokemon go did for 3DS and Pokemon S/M!

  What? 3DS sales in its first three years are the same with gba's... Go check it! My reply to normchacho pertains to you too..

 Guys, fat ds  only sold 18m in  two  years, gba was almost unaffected by it.

 DS lite was its real successor, which came in gba's 5th-6th year ...

"Only 18 million" dude, 18 million is substantial, and even then, the DS Lite came earlier in the GBA's life than we currently are in the 3DS's life. So I don't get why you keep repeating this. It's correct but it doesn't take anything away from the point here. The GBA would've sold substantially more if it had been replaced as late as the 3DS, and the 3DS and Vita will still end up below that, and handhelds will likely decrease from this gen to the next one as well. This doesn't mean dedicated handheld gaming will die, but it won't sell as much any more.

Ah, I misunderstood you...

Sadly, with switch we cannot come into any conclusion for the handheld console market state, due to the nature of the product!

It may sell more than 3DS, and most of its userbase not being 3DS audience, or it may sell less than 3ds but without having been bought from few  handheld console/3DS  gamers...

Unless as I aforesaid, Nintendo is able to sell switch for 199$ standalone, or make a version of switch like 2ds for 3ds.

I'm not sure that it will catch 3DS audience at 250$ even if it offers all these different gaming experience for such a low price, most 3ds audience could not be interested in the hybrid thing.

Nintendo takes a  huge risk regarding their handheld console business! They may lose most of the 3ds audience and switch flop as a hybrid ( but succeed as just a Nintendo home console) , or switch succeed but without any of 3ds audience which will be left abandoned if there is no real successor. 

However they can always release a separate 3DS successor, which would still have the same games with switch.



mysteryman on 09 December 2016
twintail said:
DS was a fluke?

Lol the hell kind of opinion is that?

You've discovered the true purpose of the thread.



ktay95 on 09 December 2016

How about we come back to this topic in 5 years, at which point you will realise just how wrong you are.



Barkley on 09 December 2016

It's nice that you combine Nintendo and Sony's handhelds to compare the entire handheld market to previous singular consoles. It's also nice that your main argument is reaching GBA's hardware/software sales, a device that was replaced 3 and a half years later.

Great Thread.



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Zoombael on 09 December 2016

Who says the DS was a fluke? The Wii was a fluke, an exception. The DS was the zenith.



Hunting Season is done...

Zod95 on 09 December 2016

Handheld hardware sales by year:

2001: 20M (considering GBA sold 80M in 4 years)

2002: 20M (considering GBA sold 80M in 4 years)

2003: 20M (considering GBA sold 80M in 4 years)

2004: 20M (considering GBA sold 80M in 4 years)

2005: 21M

2006: 30M

2007: 42M

2008: 44M

2009: 47M

2010: 30M

2011: 30M

2012: 25M

2013: 21M

2014: 13M

2015: 10M

2016: 6M (will it end at 7M ?)

The market is declining for 7 consecutive years with 2 major slumps in the last 3 years.

And if it wasn't for Sony creating a new segment (with PSP), the handheld market would probably be declining for more than 10 years.

The handheld market is gone.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Normchacho on 09 December 2016
tak13 said:
Normchacho said:

Even if you ignore DS handhelds are in decline. The GBA was replaced after 3 and a half years while the 3DS has been the only Nintendo handheld since early 2011. 

But more imporantly, handhelds are going to continue to decline. Nintendo is going to start focusing more and more on the mobile market and that's going to really hurt handheld sales. If Nintendo even bothers to make another dedicated handheld.
                               

Enough with that...

Fat ds replaced gba  in the time period you cite. It  sold only 18m in two years, the real damage was made by ds lite in gba's 5th year-6th year! Fat ds had a very slow start and didn't really have any significant effect in gba sales, plus that gba was in decline before fat ds release... GBA would have barely sold 100m if it hasn't had a successor in 2004.

The unpleasant thing is the decline in NA but 3DS will have sold 25m+ there, that's very good but in Japan where smartphon gaming is bigger, 3DS has stomped gba.

What will Nintendo do? Mobile games for Nintendo are a synergy with their core business, it won't become their focus.

Look what Pokemon go did for 3DS and Pokemon S/M!

Teeqoz said:
The GBA sold a lot faster than the 3DS, and would've passed 100 million easily if it hadn't gone as long without a successor as the 3DS had. The DS launched only 3 and a half years after the GBA did. Meanwhile, the 3DS launched nearly 6 years ago and is still about 20 million behind the 3DS...

  What? 3DS sales in its first three years are the same with gba's... Go check it! My reply to normchacho pertains to you too..

 Guys, fat ds  only sold 18m in  two  years, gba was almost unaffected by it.

 DS lite was its real successor, which came in gba's 5th-6th year ...

Which means that the handheld market sold 18 million plus whatever the GBA sold in those two years.

Handheld gaming isn't going to flat out go away, but to suggest that it isn't in decline is silly.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

superchunk on 09 December 2016
vivster said:
Well Nintendo is so desperate and is combining their handheld with a home console to increase sales while Sony has dropped out completely. Sounds like a decline to me.

Will you accept the decline of handhelds if the Switch sells less hardware than the 3DS?

Nintendo is merging due to home decline and competition. With exception of Wii, only their portables have remained extremely profitable and popular, especially in Japan.

Sony is dropping (maybe) because they've tried twice and both times were decimated by Nintendo and they lost money while in home they are very strong.

NS will sell similar to 3DS or more. I'm betting more but will be confident on the prediction come April.



superchunk on 09 December 2016
twintail said:
DS was a fluke?

Lol the hell kind of opinion is that?

A logical one.

PS2 and Wii are in the same category. They had specific reasons to garner the 100MM+ sales that no other consoles can reach. Basically, specific cost+content.