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Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

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spurgeonryan said:
vivster said:
I'd call anything below 50m a failure. Even 50 or 60m would show that the Nintendo and handheld fanbase has massively declined. Anything above 60m I'd call a success, though I don't see that yet.

How about now? What do you see. 

60m seem quite possible now, which would mean I'd consider it a success. Still very iffy on the 100m though.

Jumpin said:
spurgeonryan said:

How about now? What do you see. 

Didn’t you read what he said? The man is blind!

Cool your jets, no need for name calling. Some people don't have their self worth attached to a certain platform so they're naturally skeptical. Not that I ever made an actual prediction on this.



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bluetoad said:

it has a real good chance at 100m. they need to sell 20+m this year, i think pokemon can give them that. Labo will attract some new users mainly younger children. i think they should dip into the wii-ds back catalog to attract older casuals.

Wii franchise but new entries, not rehashes. Yes please!



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LipeJJ said:
Nautilus said:
Oh, someone necrobumped my thread.Was planning to do that after the financial report, but I dont mind people doing it now.

When will it take place? I only know it's this month. xD

31th January



I think 100m units is certainly possible. 5 years could mean new entries of already popular franchises that came out last year or this year. A new Pokemon could be done in the 4th or 5th year depending how easy it is to reuse assets etc. What I'm trying to say is, it will be entirely possible if they keep putting out franchises that move massive amount of hardware.




It will reach 100m easily. It's already selling gangbusters while being supply constrained. When Nintendo unleash Pokemon, this will do Wii numbers.



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I think the Switch can comfortably pass 100m. It has the luxury no Nintendo home console has had in the past. All the biggest HH franchises (Pokemon, Animal Crossing etc.) plus all the biggest home console titles. Pokemon + Odyssey, Zelda, LABO, etc.= Very high sales potential. They could even try to resurrect the Wii series in some form or other to appeal to the "Wii generation" or even the parents of prospective LABO owners. Also, with portability the Switch literally advertises itself by being seen out in the wild.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

I actually agree more with RTU, the Switch won't reach 100 millions because it would need to stay on board ~8 years, and the system is already after 1 year only (or even at 0 year) completly retarded to handle any of the new big games which are currently under dev for XBOX1X and PS4 Pro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWObjSqKoqs



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
I actually agree more with RTU, the Switch won't reach 100 millions because it would need to stay on board ~8 years, and the system is already after 1 year only (or even at 0 year) completly retarded to handle any of the new big games which are currently under dev for XBOX1X and PS4 Pro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWObjSqKoqs

Why would it need to be supported for 8 years? That's 12.5M on average per year. Switch will sell much more than that for the next couple of years. 

The 3DS is still being supported despite being very weak, even for handheld standards (it's much closer to the PSP than the PS Vita in terms of power). The Switch on the other hand is quite powerful for a handheld. 

The main reason to buy Nintendo consoles has always been first party games and that will not change now. Pokémon, Animal Crossing and Super Smash Bros. will all reach new heights on the Nintendo Switch. Let's see if Level-5 can re-ignite the Yokai Watch franchise and Capcom would be stupid not to release a brand new Monster Hunter game on the Switch. 



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It will most likely live on for longer than 5 years guys. Even the 3DS which was limited af since launch is turning 7 in 2 months.

60 million would be pretty bad imo after being the best selling console of all time on its first year, that we can 80% say its happening, it would need to drop like a rock in year 3-4 or not be able to pick up yoy after its first one while having Smash, Pokemon, Labo, Mario 2D, Animal crossing, price cut, better deals and bundles and probably a revision. That's insane to me. If it is (most likely) selling around 15 millions in a launch year, without most of the big system sellers and marketing boost, there is no way it won't make it to alteast 80 millions imo.

To me, 80 millions is literally the worst case scenario of it's lifetime sales. But seeing how its outselling Wii, it will have both system seller and community of handheld and home consoles and that it has a GOOD reputation, which is REALLY important here (which is where the Wii failed hard), i dont see it not beating the Wii.

I think Nintendo will keep it alive for long until they can make a Switch 2.0 with reasons to buy it. Nintendo said they changed their marketing campain to 1 per person from 1 per house. So we can expect a similar lifetime to a handheld which is normally around 7 years.

It will most likely peak year 3... so here are my predictions :

Year 1 : 15.2 millions --> 15.2 millions
Year 2 : 23 millions --> 38.2 millions
Year 3 : 25 millions --> 63.2 millions
Year 4 : 23 millions --> 86.2 millions
Year 5 : 20 millions --> 106.2 millions
Year 6 : 15 millions --> 121.2 millions
Year 7 : 11 millions --> 132.2 millions
Year 8 : 6 millions --> 138.2 millions

So Around 140 millions LT.
It can also change depending how it is doing in China.



Yup, agreed. Switch will hit 100M, but if and only if Nintendo doesn't introduce another "handheld" during the Switch's run like some rumors have been saying. It has a wide market appeal, you don't have to buy 2 consoles to get the most out of Nintendo's current gen IP, and the software is decent and plentiful. And as long as Switch sells, 3rd parties will continue to support it. Hell, Bethesda would put Skyrim on a calculator if it was selling well enough. Because the principle is, there's money to be made.

If 3DS can hit 70+ Million, I think Switch can at least get there and beyond. Considering Nintendo hasn't begun to pull out its biggest guns yet, I think it's safe to say that when it's all said and done, Switch can hit 100M, but I'd say no more than 110M.