Except year 1 for Nintendo in the past few gens has been the time when their audiences move on as far as their home platforms go because they stop full support for the old platform, both the GC and Wii were a memory in the first year of their successor, the only reason the Wii U isn't the same is the fact that the audience has moved on already since NX has been expected for 2 years now.

They got third party support, and the PS3 Xbox 360 still gets it.

Did PS3 get Uncharted 4? Killzone Shadowfall? Infamous Second Son? Did Xbox 360 get Halo 5? Gears of War 4?

360 and PS3 only got any multiplats beyond their replacement because they had userbases over 80 million. At less than 15 million, Wii U simply doesn't justify that investment, especially not from Nintendo, who need to be rid of the system as soon as possible, since their future in the marketplace depends on NX succeeding, the chances of which will be hindered by robbing it of exclusives.

The next 3D Mario will not come to Wii U. If you're holding out any hope that it will, you're only setting yourself up for disappointment.

What it didn't get doesn't change what it did, and still does get.

And I'm not holding out hope that it will, I've said when we first started this conversation that I doubted it would come to Wii U. But I also don't think it's some impossible feat that most people here seem to think it is. In some ways it would make sense if it did.

It doesn't make sense though.

It doesn't make sense to rob your new platform on which your future in the industry depends of system selling exclusives.

The building of a strong hardware base for the future s vastly more important than squeezing a few more software sales from a dead system, I have explained this several times already. 

Because the appeal will only reach to those who already have a Wii U and do not have an NX. As I said before, who is going to buy a Wi iU for the next Mario game if the NX is already out? It's what cross gen games are for (for people who haven't upgraded yet). It won't change a single thing about the NX sales potential. 

Its not about people buying a Wii U instead of an NX. It's about Wii U owners having less incentive to upgrade. 3D Mario is a system seller; they need it to sell NX consoles.

Selling a few extra software copies on Wii U = tiny benefit.

Losing a system selling exclusive for the console your future depends on = huge loss.

Huge loss outweighs tiny benefit.

You would first have to make the leap of thinking Nintendo fans who bought the Wii U (with most being sold its release year by hardware sales data) aren't going to upgrade. Then you would have to jump to the conclusion it would be because Mario is coming to Wii U. 

Also, losing a system exclusive would be different if it were coming out on PC, or other platforms such as PS4 or XBone, but having one also release for the Wii U isn't really as horrible of loss as you're making it out to seem. In reality it's a tiny loss if a loss at all. Get people on board the NX with other things. 

Say it sells 1.5 million on Wii U. That's 1.5 million potential NX hardware sales lost. If Nintendo cannot establish a strong install base for NX, they will be third party by 2019. Going crossgen is just not worth it.

I would say that's a VAST stretch of reality.

How many people just might have no interest in NX? Why don't Nintendo release other games on NX that make people want to buy it? Why don't they push for those third parties Wii U can't handle and get people on board with NX?