Shadow1980 said:
Aielyn said:
Based on the way that the other gens were defined in that graph, 9th gen should start right where 7th gen ends. That is, when 7th gen is no longer supported significantly.
MS have just announced that they're ceasing production of the 360. It is likely that Sony will discontinue the PS3 soon. And the Wii of course has been discontinued for a little while now. So as I see it, NX is going to come just as the 7th gen is finished. Which makes it 9th gen, by that reasoning.
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Last generation was a bit protracted, though, because of how late in their lives the 360 & PS3 peaked. There was an 8-year gap between when the 360 was released and when the PS4 & XBO were released. Also, that 2020 start date for the 9th generation could easily be 2019, though probably not 2018. It'll depend on when the PS4 & XBO peak in sales and how fast they decline post-peak.
Also, that alignment in those bars denoting the gens could easily just be a coincidence. It doesn't apply to Japan, for instance. Also, I just noticed that the PS2 was discontinued in the U.S. in early 2013, not late 2012 (that was Japan), so that's a slight error on my part.
Again, the NX's generational classification should depend on what systems it will mostly be competing with. If the rumors are true and it's releasing this year, then it will almost certainly spend its prime years competing with the PS4 & XBO and not the PS5 & Xbox 4. The NX could be 3 or even 4 years old by time the next PlayStation & Xbox come out, which makes it an ambiguous case that will hopefully be resolved come E3 this June.
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By that reasoning, Dreamcast was a 5th gen system against the N64 and PS1, as for most of its life, it was up against those platforms.
I really don't see why the length of the Wii/PS3/360 primacy should mean the 9th gen is going to be delayed further. On the other hand, the pattern of generations starting around the time that the generation two prior to it ended has endured through everything... so why should it change now?
Incidentally, there's really no reason to think that the XBT and PS5 will be released as late as 2020, right now. It's based on the assumption that this generation will go somewhere near as long as the last one did, despite the last generation being a far stronger generation in terms of sales of all platforms. The general pattern is a 5 year gap between generations. This would see the next systems coming out in 2018, which is right about where we'd expect it to happen, if the only thing that happens with the rumoured "upgrades" is a resolution increase.
And if I'm right, and the NX (console) doesn't release until 2017, then there'll be a 1 year gap. But even if it's a 3 year gap, that really doesn't mean much on its own. The Wii U was in the same generation as the XBO and PS4. The NX is the successor of the Wii U. Therefore, the NX is 9th gen. If both Sony and MS wait until around the time that NX is being replaced by its successor to release their successors, then they will have kept the same systems for both the 8th and 9th generation of consoles. Because that's how generations work.