Hi everybody!

As some of you may know, I have been following the rise of consumer VR pretty closely for the last couple of years. In particular, Playstation VR (formerly Project Morpheus) since I am primarily a Playstation gamer. There has been a lot of discussion lately about the viability of consumer VR and what kind of effect it will have on gaming and I've been actively involved in many of those discussions. So I've decided it's time to buckle down and make this thread, which will go over what Sony needs to do with PSVR in order for it to be succesful, as well as what success in the VR space really means.

I will warn everyone that this will likely go quite long, but I'll be sure to add a TL:DR at the bottom.

I want to start off by talking about a VR headset would have to do for it to be considered a success. This is an interesting question because there really isn't a frame of refrence for VR. When a new console launches success is often measured using sales compared to both it's competition, and it's predecessors. Playstation VR especially, doesn't really have predecessors or competition. This is Sonys first attempt and nobody else is doing console VR.

Sales numbers don't really seem like the proper way to meassure success in this case. Im sure Sony has its own numbers as to how many it would like to sell, but it's very unlikely that we see or hear about those numbers anytime soon, if ever. To explain what I think will be the final meassure of success for VR, lets turn to the Kinect.

As of February 2013 Microsoft had sold 24 million Kinect sensors. That's nearly 1 for every 3 Xboxes sold up to that point. So sales wise, it looks like the Kinect was a big success and yet when people look back at it now, many consider the Kinect a faliure. I believe this is because those sales never really turned into consistent support for the peripheral and that's because it didn't really work as a gaming device. Evidence of this can be seen in the way Microsoft promoted the second generation Kinect, much of which centered around it's value as a new way to interact with the UI, rather than the games it provided.

Just to clarify, I am aware that Kinect got some good games and a handful of those games did see critical and commercial success. But much of the Kinect library was smaller, more casually focused games that failed to resonate (or...Kinect...teehee) with Microsofts core fanbase.

So whenever I mention success, both in this thread and in others, I'll be talking simply about Sony being able to sell enough headsets to provide consistent, and worthwhile support to the platform.

With that out of the way, lets look at what PSVR is going to need to acheive that goal.

In my mind, there are two major questions that need answering when looking at the viability of PSVR. Lets get the big one out of the way first.

Price.

Probably the most talked about aspect of VR here on VGC is just what it's going to cost. There have been those who have said that the only way they see VR working is if it costs between $99 and $199. I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty that those are pipe dream numbers. The consumer version of the Gear VR is little more than a housing for your phone, and that costs $99. Though I will say that there is likely at least a little bit of profit built into that price.

Not long ago Andrew House came out and said that PSVR will be priced as a new gaming platform. Let me repeat that, "Priced as a new gaming platform." Since he said that, websites have been claiming that it will cost anywhere from the $400 launch price of the PS4, to the $600 launch price of the PS3, and pretty much everywhere in between. In my opinion, that is click-bait nonsensical garbage.

I think that for a few reasons. 

1. I don't think PSVR will cost Sony enough to have to charge $399 for it.

2. The PS4 likely won't cost $399 when PSVR launches.

3. Sony isn't dumb enough to charge more for PSVR than the current (as of PSVR launch) price of the PS4.

4. He said gaming platform, not console.

I expect that Andrew House was talking more about he Vita than the was the PS4.

As far as what I actually think it will cost, and if I think it can be successful at that price...This is how I think the prices break down.

Base unit: $279-$299. Comes with nothing, just the headset and the proccessing unit. Designed for the people that already own the Camera (over 900k had been sold as of March 2014) and so Sony can advertise a price below the $300 mental barrier. May come with a small collection of games or demos ala Wii Sports.

Primary bundle: $329-$349. Comes with PSVR and the Camera. Will be the main unit people buy and see in stores. Should also come with a collection of demos or little games.

Move bundle: $379-$399. Comes will PSVR, the Camera, and two move controllers. Will likely come with a small collection of move compatible demos or little games.

At those prices I think Sony can make a decent case for PSVR. It likely won't be a mainstream hit, but shouldn't have too much trouble justifying its existence.

Of course a reasonable selling price is only reasonable if they give you a reason to buy it, which moves us on to our second major point.

Support:

In my opinion early support for PSVR will be split into two categories.

Smaller VR only games that showcase the tech and get people excited for the potential that VR has to offer, and larger games that can be played without VR, but are made better by it's inclusion.

So far we only have a fairly small list of games for each of those two catagories, but they help us gather a better understanding as to what types of games we can expect.

a sample of the smaller games we have so far:

The Assembly: A story based game that revolves around a secretive research facility that has the player completing puzzles and solving mysteries.

Rigs: Mechanized Combat League: A mech based FPS designed with high speed E-sports in mind.

EVE: Valkyrie: A first person space combat game based in the EVE: Online universe.

I imagine that this type of game will make up the bulk of PSVR support for at least the first year, though we already know some larger games will support the headset.

We already know that games like Project Cars, and Ark: Survival Evolved will support PSVR along with a few others, but I think real success for PSVR hinges largely on 3 games.

No Mans Sky: I've often heard that peoples favorite thing about VR is going somewhere new and looking around and no game that embodies this idea better than NMS. Giving players a beautiful and nearly infinite universe to explore would provide PSVR users a wow factor that few other experiences could provide. Hints have been dropped that VR support is on the way and there has even been speculation that VR support is the cause of the devs silence and apparent delay of the game.

Dreams: I see two possible ways that Dreams could support VR. The first, is just allowing people to create in VR. the ability to create using VR and Move alone would provide a huge boost to the experience of modeling and building worlds over simply using the DS4 and your TV. The second (and admittedly less likely) scenario is full VR support. Allowing players to create there own VR experiences would allow players to make the experiences they've always wanted to see (where is my VR lightsaber game!?!?) and would give them a nearly infinite amount of early content. Media Mollecule have hinted at VR support before and one of the men behind PSVR now works at the studio.

GT7: This one is so obvious I will be stunned if it doesn't end up supporting the headset. GT is a giant franchise in a genre that not only fits VR perfectley, but also has a fanbase known for throwing down lots of money on accessories. Yoshida himself has stated that he'd like to see VR support come to GT7.

Besides games I also expect things like the recentley announced Netflix and Hulu apps to come to PSVR, along with some other non-gaming content.

That's it! You made it! Thanks for reading (all 1500ish words of it) and please let me know what you think down below! Do you think if PSVR follows the path I've laid out above that it could be a success? Would you think of buying one if my expectations/predictions come true?

Here's the TL:DR version I promised earlier.

PSVR success needs:

*Success for PSVR means selling enough to get consistent, worthwhile support*

Decent price ($299 base price, $399 full Move bundle)

Large number of VR only games (Rigs, The Assembly, EVE: Valkyrie)

VR support from larger games (Dreams. NMS, GT7)

Netflix, Hulu, ect. non gaming support.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. I'm thinking $299 will be a minimum. They will need good and consistent software support as well.

I don't think it will be a huge success at the beginning but rather a slow build up through word of mouth. I'm sitting on the fence myself until I see what titles it will offer and how much it will actually cost, but I am intrigued.

For me it´s all about the price.

$199-$249 = ideal
$299 = what it´s probably going to be
>$299 = DOA

I don´t know about the games. Right know I haven´t seen anything I care about. No Man´s Sky would be nice as a launch title tough.

As people already said the only way they can make a hit out of it if it's cheap, graphics doesn't matter as Wii taught, even if this time people will need to own a PS4. Knowing that PS4 won't go under 300/250$ in a loooooong time I really can't see Sony's VR sell a lot, that said it seems that the Oculus needs a 1000$ specs PC to give a proper experience so who knows...

Imho the best price they could realistically make would be 299 but I think it will be higher

right now i have a lot of curiosity but that isn't the same thing as interest. i need something announced that makes me say i want to play that. probably a few somethings,.. like 5-10 games. ..or one porn game. yeah, i know but it's the truth.

Yeah, I expect the PS4 to be 349.99 by the time PSVR comes out. So I think we're looking at 649 all in. Which isn't bad for VR. Though I think most of the market will come from people who already have a PS4.

I'll certainly buy it. Any racing game in VR has me sold. It's too bad Wipeout won't be a launch title for psvr yet GT7 is a given. Also can't wait to play something like Dead space in VR. And maybe it will revive Myst type adventure games. Datura was quite a nice little experiment with move. VR support for the Witness, I can dream.
Edit: Ah already happening http://vrfocus.com/archives/21974/jonathan-blow-reveals-experimental-vr-support-for-the-witness/ Maybe Sony can convince him to support psvr too.

I don't know if Netflix etc will come to VR just yet. The resolution is quite low for watching video. You're already down to 960x1080 per eye, spread out over 100 degrees. Although I guess DVD quality at IMAX size can be fun too. Maybe they'll even make it compatible with 3D blu-ray. I have one of those, never watched it in 3D.

I agree with your points. Price and support are key. Also the games need to sell well enough that devs want to invest into making games that support the tech.

If they have GT7 support I pretty much have to buy it. I'm one of those fans that has spent an obscene amount of money on a wheel and pedals.

I have to be honest though and say I know nothing about The Witness other than it's going to have VR support.

Edit: Just remembered what The Witness was and I would totally buy that for PSVR.

Oh, and the Gear VR Netflix app doesn't support HD video. So the experience would likely be pretty much the same.

It has to be cheap and support from beginning