This is an ongoing investigation: Does (NCL) Nintendo HQ use sales numbers from Japan only when they decide which games that are worthy of a sequel?

So far it seems as that  (with a few curious exceptions) a console game for a Nintendo home console have to sell close to 1 million copies - IN JAPAN - to get a sequel. Games with Mario in the title can sell a little less.

This explains why we get Mario Tennis (N64 - 1060k) instead of Mario Strikers (GC - 200k) , Mario Sluggers (GC - 260k) or even Mario Golf (N64 - 650k). This explains why there are rumors of Diddy Kong Racing (N64 - 890k) and that it was so hard to get Starfox (SNES - 800k). Other sequels we probably can forget are Metroid 3D (best selling 3D Metroid in Japan is Metroid: Other M -130k), F-Zero (SNES - 890K), Wave Race (N64 - 340k), Pilotwings (SNES  - 480k), Mario Paint (SNES - 710k), 1080º (N64 - 130k), Endless Ocean (Wii - 120k). This could have been a major component in Nintendo not fighting for Rare. Except DKC Rare did not sell well in japan, not even Banjo (N64 - 550k)

If this rule is true there is a bigger chance of Rhythm Heaven U (Wii - 770k) than Metroid 3D U. Metroid 2D could happen though (NES - 1040k)! Even games like Mario Galaxy (1020k & 980k) and Luigi's Mansion (Wii -460k) could have a hard time getting a sequel. This explains why Twilight Princess (Wii - 600k, GC - 40k) is the Zelda game that will not come to Wii U (remake or VC).

Strange exceptions: Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii - 160k), Fatal Frame (Wii - 100k), Fire Emblem (SNES - 700k)

Please fill in with your own examples. I will try to come back with more numbers and "proofs".

EDIT: This also means no sequels to Splatoon (~300k), Captain Toad (150k) or Hyrule Warriors (130k).

Splatoon is going to sell 500k+ in Japan. I don't think even Zelda is going to hit that. NCL has to be thrilled with those sales.

Yes that would be the rational wiev of the situation.  I think NCL are not always (rather quite selldom) driven by rational economic factors. The people that make the decisions in Nintendo have grown up in the company and carry a lot of history with them. I think they still belive that Japan is the core business and the rest of the world is icing on the cake.

LMAO!

Will sell 1 million easy, maybe 1.5 million.

There was a thread about Zelda games doesn't have that selling power in Japan and Zelda is more of a western game.  

Maybe it was this thread?  http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=198925

Hyrule Warriors did not sell good in Japan (130k Japan - 950k Total World) despite having two "popular" franchises mixed.

LoZ WW did not sell good in Japan (130k Japan - 1350k Total World)

LoZ:aLBW (3DS) sold OK in Japan (450k Japan - 2480k Total World)

EDIT: by the way the top list of Zelda games is not the same in Japan as in the rest of the world:

1 The Legend of Zelda - NES

2 Zelda II: The Adventure of Link - NES

3 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - N64

4 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - SNES

5 The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - DS

6 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - GC

7 The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks - DS

8 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - N64

9 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - Wii

2D Zelda more popular than 3D Zelda in Japan   http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?page=1&results=1000&name=zelda&platform=&minSales=0&publisher=&genre=&sort=GL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY


thats how nintendo decides...

LOL They even use an Ocarina!

and a chicken we know nintendo hates chicken...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QackOxe64yM

Those numbers ain't right though. There just vgc numbers and not including digital.