What are the chances of them loosing all or some of thier work?

I lost count on how many times nintendo said that they wont show zelda at E3....

Zero. Unless they are completely restructuring the game (say for a new console, or to change the artstyle or what have you). Either way you'd think they could get something out for E3 given we saw it around 6 months ago.

Won't stop people from still expecting the game at the conference, people always find ways to tell themselves that Nintendo (or any other company really, the same's happening every year with Sony and TLG as well for example) just lied or was misunderstood for some reason.

That violin music is utterly beautiful, it makes me think of a distant medieval world like that found in skyrim, dragon age or witcher. In fact this music would be perfect for any fantasy medieval RPG.

My brain says no but my heart says yes... ;_;

Maybe Aonuma was misunderstood.
He may have meant that Zelda would not be playable at this years E3. Perhaps they still have a trailer for it.

how many times lied nintendo about zelda before?

Skyward sword will be 100% in 2010.

zelda wii u will be 100% in 2015.

I know.And i do understand the feeling of wanting to see something you care about, but it is simply stupid being blind to the truth like this.And for me it is actually good.It means nintendo has enough things to show that will get people excited, without using one of its major franchise.Im really looking forward to the digital event