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Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

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More than 3 years later and the prediction is still standing. I think it will still be true in 5 years.

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bubblegamer said:
More than 3 years later and the prediction is still standing. I think it will still be true in 5 years.

It's not like there could have been something in between that time that sold from 0 to 80 though.



S.Peelman said:
bubblegamer said:
More than 3 years later and the prediction is still standing. I think it will still be true in 5 years.

It's not like there could have been something in between that time that sold from 0 to 80 though.

3DS was still relevant back then.



3 years is literally nothing when it comes to this type of prediction. There has one new console launched since then, which is already looking to surpass 80 million.


Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out.

Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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Heh, I know old prediction threads like this are funny, but the OP makes the same basic mistake that I still see a lot of people making today. Namely, he thinks generation 8 will determine generation 9. Nope. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Every new set of consoles is a huge reset in the market place. Did the best selling console of all time, the PS2, lead to the PS3's success? Nope. Did the PS3's massive financial failure hinder the PS4? Nope. Did the Gamecube hinder the Wii? Nope. Did the Wii help the Wii U? Nope.

Every generation is different. Every time a console launches it's a huge reset in the marketplace. The only thing we know for sure about generation 9 is that the Switch is already successful. That already puts PS5 and Scarlett at a disadvantage. I am sure they would rather be competing against another Wii U. Instead it is more like they are competing against another Wii.


Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out.

Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement.

35 is going to be a bit tough but I think it can come close.  Like 33.5 to 34 million.  I would fully expect a much bigger December this year through March.  Releasing a big title like Smash in December i think is going to make Switch sales go crazy in December and that will push through until early next year.  Mario Oddysey came out in October last year so it wasn't as powerful come February as Smash will be this January/February.  



Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out.

Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement.

35m might be a bit too high. According to this site it did 7.25m from Nov 19, 2017-Mar 3, 2018 so it think it can do 10m+ this year putting it right around 33m by that point.

~35m at the end of March however I believe is possible.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Heh, I know old prediction threads like this are funny, but the OP makes the same basic mistake that I still see a lot of people making today. Namely, he thinks generation 8 will determine generation 9. Nope. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Every new set of consoles is a huge reset in the market place. Did the best selling console of all time, the PS2, lead to the PS3's success? Nope. Did the PS3's massive financial failure hinder the PS4? Nope. Did the Gamecube hinder the Wii? Nope. Did the Wii help the Wii U? Nope.

Every generation is different. Every time a console launches it's a huge reset in the marketplace. The only thing we know for sure about generation 9 is that the Switch is already successful. That already puts PS5 and Scarlett at a disadvantage. I am sure they would rather be competing against another Wii U. Instead it is more like they are competing against another Wii.

People have a habit of basing firm predictions on the exceptionally small sample size of generations that we've had thus far. The NA market is notoriously resistant to brand loyalty, for instance, seeming to hop from platform to platform be it Atari, Nintendo, sega, Sony, or Microsoft. The only consistent trend I've ever really noticed is that Nintendo tends to dominate handhelds, and I think much of that can be attributed straight to Pokémon.

Who could have predicted that Microsoft, with all the momentum they'd accrued from the previous gen, would absolutely face plant out of the gate this time around? It's just hard to predict these things as something as simple as a bad price point can derail a console.



Faelco said:
Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

Yes, but let's wait to see the impact of PS5 and Xbox Next on Switch sales. The sales could get lower faster than usual once it appears like "older gen".

 

And let's not forget than even the Wii had an intense but short life. I'm curious about how long the Switch will live before we talk about the next one. 

Ugh ? Did the Switch made the PS4 sales go lower ? No cause the PS4 had an established library, was cheaper and had way more flexibility on advertisement and deals. Switch will have a huge library once the new consoles are out, will be cheaper and maybe we might see a revision.

Also, it's literally 2 way different systems. I don't think the PS5 will be handheld and there will still be that argument of it being the only one on the market and once the price drop, it won't be the new hightech device but the one you can go crazy and buy in a heartbeat or for your kids.