Some people are calling the PS4 a fad,....lol come on people let's get serious.

What are you talking about? The PS4?

It's selling almost a million a month in the slow months in it's second year on the market at $400. It's also gonna be up YoY, how is that imploding?

I think you still don't understand what a fad is. Your premise is that "The Wii is called a fad despite being up YoY in its first year", as if you think it's not a fad because it grew YoY, right? It's actually the opposite, it wouldn't have been a fad if it had gone down YoY, since that just means it didn't catch on. For something to be qualified as a fad it have to get rapid and massive mainstream market attention first, and it's decline massive and fast as well.

For example have the PS1 declined fast and hard it would have been a fad, but it didn't, it sold over 10 years, it's success was fast and massive specially for those times, but it's decline was slow and steady. Also it established a standard in the console market, today the PS4 and XOne are evolutions of that standard, on the other hand not even the Wii U followed on the Wii steps.

I'm talking about the PS4 having similar sales to the PS3 in the same timeframe.

There are plenty of fads that barely lasted a year or less like Tamagotchi or Pet Rocks that obviously weren't up YoY. The PS4 could be one of them.

Nope. I think you are confused.

PS4 sold already over 20.4M(today is March 10), still having the 'Launch Price'; in low season it can still pull out from 170k to over 200k per week(you will see the last 2 weeks of Feb), much more than XBone and WiiU combined. This Gen Sony has a lot less competition from MS and most of all Nintendo, and when price will go down, even more games will be available, more AAA titles, the situation for PS4 will improve over an already very very healthy and dominating situation. PS4 will be the 'new PS2', just with less market share.

Wii is a fad, and it proved it; after the initial boom for the innovative and funny Motion Controller, the enthusiasm for it went down and Wii also went down, to the point it's now basicly dead.

PS4 is a standard Playstation Console, offering what PSX, PS2 and PS3 already offered, just with better graphics, sound, better OS, better on-line, and more features.   You can't speak like this, that everything can be a Fad; you need some EVIDENCE before asserting something like this.

Timeframe on its own is not that important for determining if something is a fad, of course it should be relatively short. Relative meaning compared to similar products.

Also there's no way Tamagotchis were down YoY after only their 1st year, so they certainly lasted more than a year. I don't even know what a Pet Rocks, so I've no idea if they were successful enough to even be considered a fad.

Not that it's any use to this prediction but ps4 is launching in China on March 20th. Would have been better for you if it launched in the summer.

Wii had a longer lifespan than the N64 and the Gamecube which are similar products. Just look at the data (which is missing the last year of Wii shipments).

Tamagotchis were released outside Japan in 1997 and sales were down big time in 1998. Of course going by total sales it's up, but that's a result of the staggered release, not because its worldwide popularity lasted two years.

There's even a Pet Rock pic on the wikipedia entry for fad and they have their own page so I guess they are.

After the VGChrtz adjustment, we have a week under 150,000.
The people can finally accept that PS4 is dropped under 180k???

Yeah i think the prediction is lost. That week under 150K while matching the 20.2 millions makes the margin of error not that significant to go over 180k. But it was and interesting prediction by OP.

I accept VGC's estimates, But that doesn't mean they are right.