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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Update!!!! Under 3m - Predict: Xbox One will sell more in the US than WiiU will Worldwide

Seece on 23 August 2014
summon said:
Seece said:

Oh, I should add. At the current rate, we will have WiiU at 7.3m end of September (Q3) This means Nintendo need to ship at least 620k this Q JUST to reach 7.3m. At the current rate (60k a week) it should have at least 400k in the channel.

Basically Nintendo needs to ship 1m+ for VGC figures to be correct.

It shipped 510k last Q with 4/5 weeks of Mario Kart. (So about 8/9 weeks of shipping consoles)

try again. at the current rate, it will have 7.1m by the START of september. depending on what you consider end of september (week ending sep 27 or oct 4th), it will be between 7.4 - 7.6.

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.



 

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OfficerRaichu15 on 23 August 2014

i agree with this but I'm thinking more on the lines of 25 million US
10 million europe 5 million ww so 40 million at the end :P



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

OfficerRaichu15 on 23 August 2014
Seece said:
summon said:
Seece said:

Oh, I should add. At the current rate, we will have WiiU at 7.3m end of September (Q3) This means Nintendo need to ship at least 620k this Q JUST to reach 7.3m. At the current rate (60k a week) it should have at least 400k in the channel.

Basically Nintendo needs to ship 1m+ for VGC figures to be correct.

It shipped 510k last Q with 4/5 weeks of Mario Kart. (So about 8/9 weeks of shipping consoles)

try again. at the current rate, it will have 7.1m by the START of september. depending on what you consider end of september (week ending sep 27 or oct 4th), it will be between 7.4 - 7.6.

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

well they are both overtracked(germany/ussales prove this)



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

summon on 23 August 2014
Seece said:
summon said:

try again. at the current rate, it will have 7.1m by the START of september. depending on what you consider end of september (week ending sep 27 or oct 4th), it will be between 7.4 - 7.6.

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

you saying wii u is overtracked is nothing but wishfull thinking.



Seece on 23 August 2014
summon said:
Seece said:
summon said:

try again. at the current rate, it will have 7.1m by the START of september. depending on what you consider end of september (week ending sep 27 or oct 4th), it will be between 7.4 - 7.6.

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

you saying wii u is overtracked is nothing but wishfull thinking.

Nah it's realistic thinking, as it has been previously. WiiU isn't shooting up to 1m+ shipments this Q when it barely managed 500k with 8 weeks of shipping Mario Kart bundles.



 

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Alby_da_Wolf on 23 August 2014
Seece said:
summon said:
Seece said:

Oh, I should add. At the current rate, we will have WiiU at 7.3m end of September (Q3) This means Nintendo need to ship at least 620k this Q JUST to reach 7.3m. At the current rate (60k a week) it should have at least 400k in the channel.

Basically Nintendo needs to ship 1m+ for VGC figures to be correct.

It shipped 510k last Q with 4/5 weeks of Mario Kart. (So about 8/9 weeks of shipping consoles)

try again. at the current rate, it will have 7.1m by the START of september. depending on what you consider end of september (week ending sep 27 or oct 4th), it will be between 7.4 - 7.6.

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

The latest confirmed data I could find are these: http://www.neowin.net/news/nintendos-wii-u-falls-short-of-already-reduced-shipment-predictions
If it's currently overtracked on VGC, it won't be by a horribly huge amount, maybe a 100k adjustment would be a little squeezed, but even just a 200k one would fit quite comfortably.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


Seece on 23 August 2014
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

The latest confirmed data I could find are these: http://www.neowin.net/news/nintendos-wii-u-falls-short-of-already-reduced-shipment-predictions
If it's currently overtracked on VGC, it won't be by a horribly huge amount, maybe a 100k adjustment would be a little squeezed, but even just a 200k one would fit quite comfortably.

Look at the above 10~ posts. Unless you think Nintendo are shipping 1m this Q (up 100% QoQ) then yes, it's overtracked a lot.



 

PwerlvlAmy on 23 August 2014

Funny how its always Wii U over tracked but everything else is cool and correct. Nintendo can never win xD



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DevilRising on 23 August 2014

Sorry, but if current trends continue, I kind of doubt that.

I know Xbox is a popular brand most especially where's it's from, in America, but that was the 360. The Xbone isn't as popular, and many former 360 owners went with PS4 or PC or/and Wii U this gen.



Alby_da_Wolf on 23 August 2014
Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

The latest confirmed data I could find are these: http://www.neowin.net/news/nintendos-wii-u-falls-short-of-already-reduced-shipment-predictions
If it's currently overtracked on VGC, it won't be by a horribly huge amount, maybe a 100k adjustment would be a little squeezed, but even just a 200k one would fit quite comfortably.

Look at the above 10~ posts. Unless you think Nintendo are shipping 1m this Q (up 100% QoQ) then yes, it's overtracked a lot.

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!