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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

Burek on 19 August 2014
Ka-pi96 said:

Yeah I get what you mean. Although physical prices are usually pretty good in the UK and EU PS+ is also very good, so it isn't needed unless going all digital.

Exactly. But that was my point about this type of tracking method.

If you live in an  EU country, you probably have your country's account and maybe EU PS+. You can still use those. But when you go to purchase a game, you create a US account. And for every game you buy, you create another US account. (This is good, because then you can just resell accounts, and in effect make most of your purchase money back).

Thus, for someone who buys only 1 game a month, we have 1 EU and 12 US accounts. Then the percentages get all out of whack, because as we already know US console sales, it statistically appears that EU/RotW sales (from untrackable territories) are much lower because a disproportionately lower number of new accounts has been created.



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overman1 on 19 August 2014
Fusioncode said:
Wait are people actually accusing Sony of lying about the numbers? Oh God we're reaching new levels of delusion.


Suprises me too....

All of a sudden VGChartz has become the most accurate console tracking site according to some users here....



DonFerrari on 19 August 2014
ioi said:
DonFerrari said:
We complain a lot because we want Always better numbers but the site is good as is and ioi will keep adjusting the methodology.
For anyone with half a brain we know that right now vgc tracking is quite equivalent for USA+JP+Some of Europe and 30% of WW so just do as you should. Ioi can't correct without knowing where (but could have a tab of cumulative error that when discovered where to put could be zeroed), we can Just assume weekly sales around 30% more for Ps4 and stop bitching at ioi.
But I was under the impression that the leaked numbers for Germany were all current my bad on this. And on psn account, a lot of countries don't have theirs and some users have several accounts elsewhere (I have Canadá, Usa, Uk and Brazil) and I know several people have multiple accounts for Jp, Eu and Usa because of psnstore.

Yeah as I've said the PSN account methodology isn't a perfect way but we do try to account for users with multiple accounts and adjust for published internet-connected rates by country (so if a country has a lower connect rate then their numbers will get scaled up accordingly) but even so I know it isn't perfect. As I have said, it is the best we have at the moment though.

The most constructive thing that users can do is post as much data as possible from these developing regions - that way we can compare and improve.



I agree that you have a hard time making assumptions based on psn accounts(altough psn+ may Help a little since people won't make multiple + acc. And it would be hell tracking 100-500 units sold weekly across 10's of small countries. I always assumed you used it as correction factor. Let's say your good data gave 100k for the 20 reliable countries but based on shipments figures and psn acc you see the rate should be 20% over 100k so you made RoTW 20k. Cool to know you go the extra mile and try to chart small countries that just sony have hard data on (shipments and reposition rate) congrats for the effort and to put with so much criticism from us entitled gamers.

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

kitler53 on 19 August 2014
Conegamer said:

You know, I have to say that I'm a little embarrassed by some users in this thread. VGC has never claimed to be 100% accurate, ioi has stated on multiple occasions that his methods are based on extrapolation and identifying trends, and now he comes into this thread to try and reason and be transparent (something he didn't need to do, but he's making us aware that he knows the problem and is working towards fixing it), with reasoning which makes sense, and all you guys can do are attack him for that? That's a little shameful. If you can't appreciate the way the site works or the site owner, in my opinion perhaps you need to find a new site to visit.


This is the way VGC has always done it. We know it isn't 100% accurate, but it gives us a vague idea. Also, for the regions which people actually seem to care about (Japan, US and Europe), we know that two of those three are almost perfect, so where's the issue here? I just appreciate getting the numbers, knowing they aren't completely accurate, rather than getting nothing at all. Maybe that's just me.

we all know vgcz isn't 100% accurate.   ..but in this very thread ioi said:

"Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k."

which we all know to be highly laughable.  he's been off more than that in a single month's NPD on most occasion.



joeorc on 19 August 2014
Ka-pi96 said:

Well it is isn't it? The only other one I can think of is insiderp... and yeah... not accurate...

Do you think that is , Quite a bit of Arrogance in making that claim though? I am all for support of the site, but to be dismissive of other sites or "Companies" tracking Methods shows more toward being Bias than willing to listen to other impute , that maybe just maybe they may have access to data that you do not?



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

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COX on 19 August 2014
Conegamer said:

It's not being kind, it's more being reasonable. If you aren't willing to listen to ioi's reasoning, then there's not an awful lot more you can do.

Hopefully when it's the 360 we don't need all this time for "corrections". Recently ioi was so reasonable after the last statement of Microsoft about the numbers 360 sold in the world. I guess this kind of reasoning can't be apply with every console. ;)



Silver.eyes on 19 August 2014

Alt Removed, Carl



Silver.eyes on 19 August 2014

Alt Removed, Carl



COX on 19 August 2014
Silver.eyes said:

yeah, I just can't see how sony could know about numbers sould to consumers, two days after. sure, they have a lock on shipped numbers but not sold through.

Maybe because Sony don't know the exact amount but they are sure that it's more than 10 millions. They reached 10 millions probably sooner. 



bubblegamer on 19 August 2014
Silver.eyes said:
bubblegamer said:
ioi said:

On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

If Sony's numbers are to be believed as being accurate sell-through then clearly they have sold an enormously disproportional amount in one of those regions and once we know which one we can make the necessary adjustments. We can't just add 600k units to the total - we need to know which regions to adjust so we can ensure that we are on track moving forwards. This is why adjustments don't always happen straight away or sometimes not at all - we can't just randomly add sales here and there to make things add up!

The same goes for complaints about PS3 and 360 sales - until we can get hard data for regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, China and so on then the best we can do is extrapolate based on general market trends and make best estimates for specific platform sales in those regions. If you wish to help and know of any reports or research in those regions then let me know and we can compare to our estimates and make adjustments as necessary.

I can't belive you said that! You're trying to suggest they don't know how much they have sold and you are doing a better job! We all understand the difficulties you're facing to track everything correctly, but when i read stuff like this i'm reminded of the reputation of the website.

sony knows how much they shipped. shipped =/= sold to consumers.

Except they went out of their way in explaining how they meant sold by it. And it also was over 10 million units.