I agree, but that still leaves us with a ??? as to how popular H5 will be on XBO.

Will it have a very high attach rate? Almost definitely imho, to think otherwise would be silly. I think Halo MCC will come about even with Titanfall for XBO sales, and that's just a remaster pack.

OTOH, how many players that played Halo 1 and 2 on OG Xbox, and maybe 3 and 4 on 360 have moved on? COD seems to have picked up the mantle of top-level FPS easily from Halo, which explains a lot (both the decline in Halo sales as well as the later Halo entries starting to ape COD-like features).

We honestly have no idea one way or the other. 343i isn't exactly proven, but in some ways Bungie is a bit overrated as well.

A lot of Halo's success was the newness to most of the players. You find that most PC FPS veterans who played Halo thought it was okay at best, while console-only players were blown away as it was a huge step up from previous console FPS titles. But Halo 5 definitely won't be releasing into a vacuum of FPS franchises.

In the end I predict it will sell extremely well amongst XBO owners, and higher than Titanfall or MCC by a decent amount (due to both higher % of XBO owners buying it, as well as the install base will obviously be larger by the time H5 drops AND it's extremely likely that the console will be $349 or less by that time as well). A ton of factors support that being a probable outcome.

Less likely? Selling as much as a COD will (unless COD:AW falls on its face, one could argue that COD is contracting as well). Hell, even Destiny should handily outsell Halo 5, and I think that Destiny is in many regards a bit overhyped just like Bungie and Halo are overhyped.

People have strong nostalgia goggles, Halo 1, 2, and 3 were big because they came at the right time with the right mojo. They were events. It's like Goldeneye on N64 or COD4:MW, sudden booms that really reverbrated throughout the industry. But for every earth-shaking title like that (regardless of the actual quality), there are dozens of wannabes, and more often than not, even major installments in a franchise are seen as also-rans. COD is seen as fundamentally the leader in FPS, right? But would anyone say that COD Ghosts is the top COD title of all time? How about Killzone? The new one sold very well for a while (drought, anyone?), but not many people would attempt to say that it's a landmark title or a smashing success.

So if XBO has a ~15M install base by the time Halo 5 drops, and then H5 boosts numbers a bit, I could see Halo 5 going on to sell maybe 6-8M copies, and pushing up the XBO baseline for a little while. But the main problem Halo has is the XBO itself, even more so than the series fatigue described above. The install gap will be gargantuan by that time.

Watch July, August, and especially September NPDs to know what I'm talking about. Even if BOTH PS4 and XBO have near-ties for Oct-Nov-Dec (which is doubtful honestly), that gap will be 1M+ in the US before that even begins, and globally, well. No sense beating that dead horse.

If Halo 5 was coming this November with a $349 XBO 1TB bundle, I could see it REALLY shaking things up. That's not the case. In the end I think it will be another incremental decline in the franchise.

I agree that the attach rate for Halo 5 will be very high. As for the MCC, I expect it to sell more than 3m copies. 

We'll have to wait and see how many have moved on. Its a question brought up all the time for Halo cause there are so many FPSs. I think Halo 4 proved that people aren't tired of the series, but it also showed that its popularity isn't increasing anymore. Even with a large install base on the 360, Halo 4 failed to overtake Halo 3s sales. Of course Halo 3 is older but it released when the 360 had a much smaller install base. So that could mean that Halo has already peaked. 

I don't think Halo has to worry too much about COD. Halo 4 and Reach still sold well and COD was huge when they released. I think Halo's biggest competition this gen will come from Destiny. 

As for sales, I expect Halo 5 to sell around 8.5m. It certainly won't outsell COD AW or Destiny, but will probably be X1s highest selling game. 

I think MS is relying too much on Halo and I agree that series fatigue will kick in. I agree that the main problem is the X1. Nothing MS is doing is really helping it sales, and that could hurt Halo 

Overall I agree with most of what you said. In the end, Halo 5s success will depend on the X1, and if the X1 continues to struggle, then that will hurt Halo 5s sales and possibly the franchise. 

bump. ..even if not so timely of a bump.

yes i was wrong but how could i have predicted ms would have bundled in a free game and then drop the price $50 and then drop the price another $20 and then bundle in another game and then yet one more bundled game at select stores.

i failed but i feel good even in failure. ms certainly earned their win.

Bumping your own failed prediction.. I'm impressed.

Your honor is preserved. You bumped your own failed prediction.

A manly thing to do and for that I will respect you forever.

eh.  it's not like i'm going to get punched in the face over it so it's not that manly.  still surprised at how fast i lost.