The problem here is not based on 'favorites'. The problem is somebody seems to be over or under estimating demand. Patcher is saying either Nintendo fibbed (over estimating), or NPD came up with numbers that are not random - leading to statistical errors (under estimating). For the record, it is not unprecedented for NPD to change their numbers.
I was actually in Japan and in Califronia, NJ, PA, NY, Chicago, Il, De, Md, VA in the month of December visiting friends and family but my observations support the claim made in the article that the Wii is not (usually) available.
So Nintendo either shipped less
NPD is wrong.
It is also worth noting that PS2 software is less than he expected..perhaps suggesting a bias in down sales across the board by the NPD.
It also seems strange that Wii Zelda would have a nearly 1:1 sale ratio at launch when the Wii appeals to casuals and Nintendo loyalists...I do believe the system is no where near universal appeal yet, but a 2/3 or 7/10 ratio of Zelda/Wii makes more sense than a 8.5/10 or a 9/10 ratio. Even brain traning and pokemon in Japan don't have that kind of attach rate on the DS (granted the userbase for the DS is much larger)
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter tells Next-Gen that he âdoesnât getâ the gap between Nintendoâs stated 2006 Wii shipment target and NPDâs annual figures.
Shortly after Wii's launch in mid-November, Nintendo of America boss Reggie Fils-Aime told Reuters that the company would have 1 million units in the US by early December and 2 million shipped by the second week of January.
According to US retail videogame sales stats released by research firm NPD Group last night, the Wii sold just 1.1 million units in 2006.
This leaves a considerable gap between NPDâs and Nintendoâs numbers.
In an e-mail to Next-Gen, Pachter said the difference doesnât make sense to him, even when taking into account Canadian estimates. He explained, âFour million [Wiis] manufactured globally, the majority (2 million) going to the US, but only 1.1 million in the hands of consumers. Okay, probably 90,000 in Canadian consumers' hands, and probably 250,000 figure floating on barges. That leaves 560,000 unaccounted for. Every time I checked, there were NONE at retail during December, so there is no inventory rotting on the shelf.
âI really don't get it,â he wrote.
Nintendoâs goal was to ship 4 million Wiis worldwide by 2006.
Pachter said that there could be an explanation for the difference, claiming itâs possible that NPD underestimated Wii sales. He also said that Nintendo may have âstretched their numberâ by rounding the global target up to 4 million or by actually shipping less than the proposed 2 million to the US.
"It's not clear to me which is true," he added.
The NPD Groupâs total US numbers are based on reports from around 60 percent of US retailers.
Pachter also noted that the Wii sold-through 1 million consoles in Japan in December, while it sold just 604.2K in the US for the month. âIt doesn't make sense that Japan would get more units than the US. Possible, but a bad business decision if true.â
Sonyâs PlayStation 3 numbers have also been scrutinized as of late. SCEA said recently that it reached its target of shipping 1 million to North America in 2006, although NPDâs life-to-date US sales data only exhibits sales of 687.3K units. The console also shipped in mid-November.
Pachter stated, âI think that the Sony numbers actually make sense. One million manufactured, 690,000 sold to consumers, so the âdiscrepancyâ is only 310,000. Canadian consumers probably bought around 60,000 of those, so there were 250,000 floating on barges on their way to retail. That's probably pretty close, since we all know that a ton of them showed up on January 2.â