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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Is Donkey Kong tropical freeze going to not break a million in sales lifetime?

Mummelmann on 11 February 2014
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.


I think even 2 million is selling this game short. Look at the how well Donkey Kong games did on Gamecube.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat-1.34 million

Donkey Konga-1.15 million

These were spinoff titles that used Bongo controllers. Also consider that Mario Sunshine, Mario Kart, Smash Bros all sold around 6-7 million and Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing all sold 3-5 million.

Donkey Kong Country sold 9.3 million on an install base of 49.10 million, Donkey Kong 64 sold 5.27 million on an install base of 32.93 million. Both of those 15-20% attach ratio. If that trend remained on Gamecube, it would have sold at least 3 million.

Also the flagship Mario game on SNES/N64 sold a little over double of DK on those consoles. 20.61 vs 9.30 on SNES and 11.89 vs 5.27 on N64. Sunshine sold 6.31 million on GC, so again following this trend DK would have sold about 3 million.

Now with all that said, Wii U is not Gamecube and is currently doing worse in the same time frame. Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million at the rate its going or about 2/3 of Gamecube lifetime sales. If we assume that a traditional DK sells over 3 million on Gamecube than it should sell over 2 million on Wii U.

That's the thing though; I think many of these franchises are losing their hold after all these years. Selling the same mascots and concepts to an ever changing audience in challenging. Donkey Kong isn't a household name today, only nerds like us and aging gamers really know much what it's all about and I can't jelp but think that this will be yet another hardcore Nintendo fan hit and not much else. But, as I said in my post; it might climb to 2 million as well, who knows?

Regardless of that though; this will be an amazing game.



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eyeofcore on 11 February 2014
spurgeonryan said:

Did not even register on the Japanese pre-order chart.

Pre-orders does not equal how sales will turn out, specially on Nintendo's platforms.



_crazy_man_ on 11 February 2014
eyeofcore said:
spurgeonryan said:

Did not even register on the Japanese pre-order chart.

Pre-orders does not equal how sales will turn out, specially on Nintendo's platforms.

And its only one store chain in Japan.



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curl-6 on 11 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.

Careful, you underestimated Pikmin 3. ;)



Mummelmann on 11 February 2014
curl-6 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.

Careful, you underestimated Pikmin 3. ;)


Careful? What will happen if I botch my numbers? Will you murder me in my sleep?

Pikmin 3 has me beat for sure; I said it wouldn't cross 750k and was wrong, by how much remains to be seen. I also screwed up most of my year end 2013 hardware predictions, but still kept them in my sig up until a couple of weeks ago.
I also feel like I say a lot of things that make sense (I've made some fairly well reasoned posts in the UNITY thread, among others), but it's all fun and games on an internet forum!

Anyway; I'm open to the idea that DK might sell in excess of 2 million, the 1.4-1.6 is just my most likely scenario, based mostly on my belief that the franchise has lost traction and relevance, not unlike Kirby, which dropped massively between the GB version and the DS version, despite the DS' superior momentum and installed base. Anything can happen, Donkey Kong could light up charts (or be a good long distance runner) and sell 3 million or it could be a "dud" and sell 1.2 million. Who knows?

I still stand by the 1.4-1.6 scenario as the most probable though and that the sheer mascot and franchise power of Mario releasing during the holidays somewhat blunts DK's efforts on the market in comparison.



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zorg1000 on 11 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.


I think even 2 million is selling this game short. Look at the how well Donkey Kong games did on Gamecube.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat-1.34 million

Donkey Konga-1.15 million

These were spinoff titles that used Bongo controllers. Also consider that Mario Sunshine, Mario Kart, Smash Bros all sold around 6-7 million and Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing all sold 3-5 million.

Donkey Kong Country sold 9.3 million on an install base of 49.10 million, Donkey Kong 64 sold 5.27 million on an install base of 32.93 million. Both of those 15-20% attach ratio. If that trend remained on Gamecube, it would have sold at least 3 million.

Also the flagship Mario game on SNES/N64 sold a little over double of DK on those consoles. 20.61 vs 9.30 on SNES and 11.89 vs 5.27 on N64. Sunshine sold 6.31 million on GC, so again following this trend DK would have sold about 3 million.

Now with all that said, Wii U is not Gamecube and is currently doing worse in the same time frame. Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million at the rate its going or about 2/3 of Gamecube lifetime sales. If we assume that a traditional DK sells over 3 million on Gamecube than it should sell over 2 million on Wii U.

That's the thing though; I think many of these franchises are losing their hold after all these years. Selling the same mascots and concepts to an ever changing audience in challenging. Donkey Kong isn't a household name today, only nerds like us and aging gamers really know much what it's all about and I can't jelp but think that this will be yet another hardcore Nintendo fan hit and not much else. But, as I said in my post; it might climb to 2 million as well, who knows?

Regardless of that though; this will be an amazing game.


How does that go against anything I said? My post shows that from SNES to N64 to GC hardware fell and so did the Mario & Donkey Kong franchises.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LiquorandGunFun on 11 February 2014

I believe the ps4 is launching around the same time over there, I think it will be short of a million in japan sales.



 

Mummelmann on 11 February 2014
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.


I think even 2 million is selling this game short. Look at the how well Donkey Kong games did on Gamecube.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat-1.34 million

Donkey Konga-1.15 million

These were spinoff titles that used Bongo controllers. Also consider that Mario Sunshine, Mario Kart, Smash Bros all sold around 6-7 million and Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing all sold 3-5 million.

Donkey Kong Country sold 9.3 million on an install base of 49.10 million, Donkey Kong 64 sold 5.27 million on an install base of 32.93 million. Both of those 15-20% attach ratio. If that trend remained on Gamecube, it would have sold at least 3 million.

Also the flagship Mario game on SNES/N64 sold a little over double of DK on those consoles. 20.61 vs 9.30 on SNES and 11.89 vs 5.27 on N64. Sunshine sold 6.31 million on GC, so again following this trend DK would have sold about 3 million.

Now with all that said, Wii U is not Gamecube and is currently doing worse in the same time frame. Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million at the rate its going or about 2/3 of Gamecube lifetime sales. If we assume that a traditional DK sells over 3 million on Gamecube than it should sell over 2 million on Wii U.

That's the thing though; I think many of these franchises are losing their hold after all these years. Selling the same mascots and concepts to an ever changing audience in challenging. Donkey Kong isn't a household name today, only nerds like us and aging gamers really know much what it's all about and I can't jelp but think that this will be yet another hardcore Nintendo fan hit and not much else. But, as I said in my post; it might climb to 2 million as well, who knows?

Regardless of that though; this will be an amazing game.


How does that go against anything I said? My post shows that from SNES to N64 to GC hardware fell and so did the Mario & Donkey Kong franchises.

There is a distinct possibility that DK will sell less than 2 million; I think it will. I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here, you seem to agree that the franchise is in a decline yet assume (?) that it will maintain its attach rate? I don't think it will maintain its attach rate, same with a few other franchises.



zorg1000 on 11 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.


I think even 2 million is selling this game short. Look at the how well Donkey Kong games did on Gamecube.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat-1.34 million

Donkey Konga-1.15 million

These were spinoff titles that used Bongo controllers. Also consider that Mario Sunshine, Mario Kart, Smash Bros all sold around 6-7 million and Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing all sold 3-5 million.

Donkey Kong Country sold 9.3 million on an install base of 49.10 million, Donkey Kong 64 sold 5.27 million on an install base of 32.93 million. Both of those 15-20% attach ratio. If that trend remained on Gamecube, it would have sold at least 3 million.

Also the flagship Mario game on SNES/N64 sold a little over double of DK on those consoles. 20.61 vs 9.30 on SNES and 11.89 vs 5.27 on N64. Sunshine sold 6.31 million on GC, so again following this trend DK would have sold about 3 million.

Now with all that said, Wii U is not Gamecube and is currently doing worse in the same time frame. Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million at the rate its going or about 2/3 of Gamecube lifetime sales. If we assume that a traditional DK sells over 3 million on Gamecube than it should sell over 2 million on Wii U.

That's the thing though; I think many of these franchises are losing their hold after all these years. Selling the same mascots and concepts to an ever changing audience in challenging. Donkey Kong isn't a household name today, only nerds like us and aging gamers really know much what it's all about and I can't jelp but think that this will be yet another hardcore Nintendo fan hit and not much else. But, as I said in my post; it might climb to 2 million as well, who knows?

Regardless of that though; this will be an amazing game.


How does that go against anything I said? My post shows that from SNES to N64 to GC hardware fell and so did the Mario & Donkey Kong franchises.

There is a distinct possibility that DK will sell less than 2 million; I think it will. I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here, you seem to agree that the franchise is in a decline yet assume (?) that it will maintain its attach rate? I don't think it will maintain its attach rate, same with a few other franchises.

Is it odd to think Nintendo franchises fall at the same rate as Nintendo hardware? Currently Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million lifetime, with it being a console primarily for Nintendo fans so one of Nintendo's biggest franchises is likely to have a solid attach rate 



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mummelmann on 11 February 2014
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
zorg1000 said:
Mummelmann said:
Japan only? No, not 1 million, perhaps 500-600k or so. Globally though? Shouldn't be a problem at all, wouldn't be surprised if it sold over 1.5 million either, or even close to 1.8-2 million with the severe thirst for good titles on the system. Most likely though; 1.4-1.6 million.


I think even 2 million is selling this game short. Look at the how well Donkey Kong games did on Gamecube.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat-1.34 million

Donkey Konga-1.15 million

These were spinoff titles that used Bongo controllers. Also consider that Mario Sunshine, Mario Kart, Smash Bros all sold around 6-7 million and Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing all sold 3-5 million.

Donkey Kong Country sold 9.3 million on an install base of 49.10 million, Donkey Kong 64 sold 5.27 million on an install base of 32.93 million. Both of those 15-20% attach ratio. If that trend remained on Gamecube, it would have sold at least 3 million.

Also the flagship Mario game on SNES/N64 sold a little over double of DK on those consoles. 20.61 vs 9.30 on SNES and 11.89 vs 5.27 on N64. Sunshine sold 6.31 million on GC, so again following this trend DK would have sold about 3 million.

Now with all that said, Wii U is not Gamecube and is currently doing worse in the same time frame. Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million at the rate its going or about 2/3 of Gamecube lifetime sales. If we assume that a traditional DK sells over 3 million on Gamecube than it should sell over 2 million on Wii U.

That's the thing though; I think many of these franchises are losing their hold after all these years. Selling the same mascots and concepts to an ever changing audience in challenging. Donkey Kong isn't a household name today, only nerds like us and aging gamers really know much what it's all about and I can't jelp but think that this will be yet another hardcore Nintendo fan hit and not much else. But, as I said in my post; it might climb to 2 million as well, who knows?

Regardless of that though; this will be an amazing game.


How does that go against anything I said? My post shows that from SNES to N64 to GC hardware fell and so did the Mario & Donkey Kong franchises.

There is a distinct possibility that DK will sell less than 2 million; I think it will. I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here, you seem to agree that the franchise is in a decline yet assume (?) that it will maintain its attach rate? I don't think it will maintain its attach rate, same with a few other franchises.

Is it odd to think Nintendo franchises fall at the same rate as Nintendo hardware? Currently Wii U is on track to sell about 15 million lifetime, with it being a console primarily for Nintendo fans so one of Nintendo's biggest franchises is likely to have a solid attach rate 


No, that's not odd at all. Donkey Kong is a joker right now; it could go either way. I think Mario Kart will maintain its incredible attach rate, Smash will increase, but I honestly don't know about DK, it was always a more outlying franchise.

I think the Wii U will sell more than 15 million lifetime though; it should manage about 10 million by year's end.