Looking at Nintendo's shipment figures for the 3rd quarter, the distribution of sales during that time (Oct-Dec), in the regions the 2DS launched in ("The Americas" and "Other"), appears to be thus:

3DS : 370,000 units sold

3DS XL : 2,820,000 units sold

2DS : 2,110,000 units sold

So, the 2DS outsold the 3DS quite handily by a wide margin, but couldn't usurp the 3DS XL as the best-selling model this past quarter.

On the one hand, I want to say this doesn't look terribly good for the 2DS. Despite the lower price tag and the new design of the 2DS, it was still outsold by the 3DS XL, and the total sales of all 3DS models fell compared against last year. Compared to the 3DS XL, which outsold the 3DS ~2:1 its first quarter, it doesn't compare as favorably.

On the other hand, there are some points to consider. The 3DS XL didn't face nearly the same level of competition with other models as the 2DS does now. Also, I'm not ruling out the possibility that the odd naming of the system led to some consumer apprehension. And finally, there could easily have been some bundling with the 3DS XL that I'm not aware of that accounted for a higher-than-expected share of sales, given the first-party releases on the system in the latter half of the year.

In conclusion, while I'm hoping the picture will be clearer by the end of the fiscal year, at this point the 2DS does not seem to be pushing the system enough to prevent a decline in yearly sales. At this point, Nintendo has released three models for the 3DS in as many years, and at best they seem only able to maintain the same level of sales, something the 2DS very well might fail to do.

Then again, it's entirely possible I'm missing something here. Thoughts?

It has done quite well.
Has sold 3M+ in Q3. Taking in count is not available in Japan, thats a pretty good figure. In fact it has clearly replaced the original 3DS as the second choice.

I remember the days when we questioned wtf was Nintendo doing with the 2ds... Now we know that what they were doing was indeed the right thing even if it was a bit wonky at first

As far as I'm aware, it hasn't sold near that many.

As far as Japan goes, that's true, though I limited the scope of my analysis to regions where it had been released.

it sold 2.1M i Q3 in America

it sold 1.1M in EU and other regions

2.1 + 1.1 = 3.2M in Q3

I believe you're mistaken. According to the hardware totals attached to their Q3 earnings release, the 2DS sold 1.11M in the Americas and 1.0M in EU and other regions. That only adds up to 2.11M.

This pretty much signs the death warrant on future glasses-less 3D screen portables from Nintendo.

Yes becourse 40 mill sold 3ds at this point.. means that people don't wont glasses-free 3D

Not surprised, in Australia you can buy a 2DS and 3DS' are scarce. Not everyone will want 3DS XL, especially younger kids. Assume most of the world is similar

The 2DS model looks ugly as hell, but I understand it. That specific model was meant for kids, because 3D is bad for little kids' eyes (honestly it's bad for everybody's eyes), and the system is shaped that way to make it less easy for a kid to break. I do wish, however, they'd release an XL model 2DS that simply doesn't have the 3D.