So far everything is going as I predicted. It just goes to give us a preview of what the West is going to do when Beijing inexorably marches on Taipei (and perhaps Pyongyang): nothing.

Seems like the shift in geopolitical dominance will be faster than expected and will mostly follow GDP trends. The EU is only going to fragment politically and stagnate economically from now on, and the US won't get in another war because of budget issues and corporate interests.

So what is your stance on Kosovo referendum then? Its basically the same situation, except that the glorious western Justice league annexed part of a nation to carve it out instead of evil Putin.

Congrats to the Crimeans. If it hadn't been for Kruschev's idiocy in giving away Crimea from Russia to Ukraine this would never have even been an issue.

When it comes to the legality of the referendum and respecting international law people gotta stop being naive. International law is there for the weak nations to follow and for the strong to interpret and enforce as they see fit.

I just find the sheer scale of hypocrisy by many western states to be comical. Where was the respect for international law and sovereignty when it came to the dismantling of Yugoslavia or the invasion of Iraq?
Bottom line is Ukraine is Russia's red line and they will do whatever they need to do to maintain their influence there and no matter how much the western nations complain they will never risk a war with Russia over Ukraine.

Of course it's not strictly ethnic, but it is exceedingly unlikely that a minority like the Tatars are going to be more divided over the issue than are Russians (the local majority) or Ukrainians (the national majority). Particularly given their traditional hostility to Russia and more recent reasons for unease, like Chechnya. On a side note, here's hoping that this talk from disgruntled Tatars about linking up with Chechen groups is just hot air and there is no sort of Crimean jihad.

Surveys as recent as last year show that Crimean Russians and Crimean Ukrainians are about as divided on their first identities as you'd expect, but there is no similar division among the Tatars. Like most true minorities - particularly ones who have a recent history of displacement - they are a very compact community. So I strongly doubt they are more divided on the issue of reverting to Russia than are the Crimean Russians. RT's claim is ludicrous, and your pointing out an pro-Russian individual here or there is akin to pointing out an individual black Republican to disprove that American blacks are a monolithic voting bloc.

As for me being usually reasonable, well, I think it's pretty unreasonable to assume that Putin is so much of a dedicated democrat that he'd roll the dice on this referendum by actually leaving it up to the voters. Not that the outcome was ever really in doubt, but getting a bare majority of 55-60% would have been a pretty big embarrassment and hardly the mandate that this sort of thing calls for.

Kind of a lame comparison. I don't think that the west should have intervened in Yugoslavia, but Crimea is hardly the site of a genocide, now, is it?

It's no skin off my nose if Crimea wants to join Russia. More power to them. I'm always for self-determination. But this referendum was held under incredibly dubious circumstances, and the reported returns are a complete and utter joke.

1) Do not bring anything from IRI, NED or Freedom House into the discussion, ever.

2) Didn't I just imply exactly that? How does that changes the fact of majority of Crimenians voted yes?

I'm not sure what you mean by "dedicated democrat", at least he has been elected for presidency by majority of voters. There's no need in setting up the referendum and cheating for Putin, when it's plain obvious for everyone who have minimal understanding of the situation that majority would vote yes. There's only one way your 55-60% claim could have been true -- if entire Tatar and Ukrainian population votes no -- that's far-fetched and ridiculous claim. As I've said it already I have no doubt that sizeable amount of Tatars either voted no or ignored the referendum whatsoever*, but I repeat there's no way Crimenian Ukrainians en masse voted any different than Crimenian Russians.

Here's an idea for you. There're international observers from multiple parties, government and non-government organizations etc. who have been there, it is their duty to check for violations, -- either you give me a report with references that states that violations are bad enought to consider the refrendum has failed, or you have no facts to confirm your opinion.

*scrath that, I've checked the voters percentage by region, there's no significant drop in Tatar regions of Crimea.

It could have been without intervention. As I've said Ukraine has been following a Yugolsavian scenario before the Crimea happened.

omg man. thank goodness I wasn't drinking anything or else my key board would be in a mess now.

OT: Anyways, does this mean Ukrain is going to be part of Russia?

Year, that picture is golden!
Also did you heard of a sanctions to Russia proposed by Obama? Since yesterday Russia is laughning its shit out after such a strong USA response to the Crimean problem.

On the Ukraine - my vision changed a bit lately. It seems to me that so called 'new authorities' in less then a month destroyed Ukraine as a state.

Just look: they almost disbanded police, army isn't exist too (when a country with 50 million population says that thay have 6000 troops out of 40 000 ready to fight - this isn't even funny). Now they started finincing their army collecting money by SMS (no joke - its on the web site of Ukraine's Ministry of Defence!)

The so called 'president' and 'government' are obvious criminals. Financial system isn't exist at all (do you know that new government now taking extra 10% from all the income of people 'for the maidan financing'?)

So it seems to me now that Ukraine is finished. And on this territory will be something else. Maybe - some parts will go to Russia/Hungary/Poland. Maybe - it will be some territory under UN mandate and peacemakers. Maybe something else. But this should be made fast or chaos will come on this land with a lot of casualties from citizens.

Hold you horses, where're talking about Crimea here, and even that process will take a while. How do you think that gonna work to incorporate a country roughly 1/3 of Russian population with budget holes size of not so tiny Russian federal subjects yearly GDP, plus failed social obligations, plus national debt, plus political instability, plus drastic difference in social wellbeing, plus -- let's nof forget that -- a sizeable part of Ukrainians who'd not want that, regardless of what I may think about them?