I like typing, so that's OK.

I'll save some space though and delete the rest of the combined post.

Thanks for taking the time to read and reply. I apologise for being rather uncharitable about some absent data, typing faster than the brain was self-censoring I'm afraid.

We are talking at cross purposes it seems. But I stand by my 30 June observation for relative position. Let us see.

One thing though: "Based on the type of reasoning I criticize in the OP, an observer in 2007 or early 2008 would conclude that the 360 was destined for failure in the region [Europe]." Only an especially unintelligent observer would, and even the sort of straw man observer you cite in the OP wouldn't see Xb360 headed for failure. A smart observer would see that by 1 Jan 2008 Xb360 had sold 4.3 Million units, and had achieved 10% year on year growth depite Wii being a phenomenon and PS3 outselling it by 1.4 million units. Xbox lifetime in Europe was only 7.17 million units. A smart observer would say that Xbox360 was headed towards substantial growth over the previous Xbox. So not likely to be a failure in the region. But a smart observer would also have said Xbox360 is going to come 3rd in the region, and probably by a substantial margin. Which is what has happened. If asked for a number a smart observer would say, for a 5 year console cycle, Xbox360 would probablly sell between 10 and 11 million consoles in Europe. They would have been wrong of course, by about 5 million consoles, but they would have predicted almost 50% growth over Xbox and that would be accounted as far from being a failure.

It may be too early to call Wii U doomed. But it's not too early to say Wii U is a disappointment and it will fail at one thing, guaranteed: it will fail to live up to Wii sales. Another revolutionary piece of peripheral hardware could turn things around though. But what? VR? It will be interesting to see. Funny that the console that has gone almost back to basics with controls (though still offering motion control as an optional extra) has had the best launch.

Hey i though it was cool.

I also have a real world viewof stores and whats happening.  This gen has been decided, all depands just how great the lions share PS4 gets.  

appreciate the work!

One of the best post I have seen on VGC recently. You nailed everything perfectly, and sadly many many users will ignore this thread.

When one sales more in a month then its competition in a year, id say it quite decided but thats just me.

Retailers are betting on PS4, prime shelf space and more of it then the competition, was not like that everywhere around xmas.  it is now.  And im in Na, cant even imagine how one sided its become in Europe.

We know well what games are coming whos getting then and who is not, cuts are not happening any time soon not that it greatly help some.  Seeing a major retailer drop a wiiu bundle to 220 just to get rid of it.  Call me crazy even if MS were to cut the price by 100, they have already lost Europe though they possibly could beat out PS4 in NA.   If they coincide a 100 cut with Halo5 release they take NA for the time.  

So whast the estimate on the time ill take PS4 to pass Wiiu in Japan ? 

I have no idea what more proof more some of you need, maybe retailers refusing to stock a console ? or some one giving up ceasing production ? 

Thank god people bumped this, I failed to catch this thread. Brilliant analysis shadow! You already know I really like your posts, but hell, I'll tell you again. Excellent work man, I read through all your post and agree with you. We can't judge a system so early, we can speculate but we can't know for sure what it's going to happen.

Sadly this thread will be blatantly ignored.

No i didnt.  I just dont care nor hope so i will not overly champion something just becasue it gives those crowds some hope.  I just see it how it is, i got all 3 under my tv and one is a clear winner.   13m in sales, clearly has started.

Its the clear choice to game on, all 3rd party games ill play on PS4 and its the one i want the most exclusives on.  Its building up a nice indi game list also, and free with psn + i really really like.  If i as forced to choose one, there would be a clear defenite anwser - PS4

Given PS adwantage in most of the world and Wiiu irrelevence, it quite does guarantee it.  Nin is in a place its been most gens, not first and they do fine there.  Whiel MS some how managed to piss away every single advantage they had last gen, and its shows in sales everywhere especially losing a key stronghold like the UK.  

I wish both MS and Nin would spend billions fighting Sony for domminance this gen, casue ill be the one to benefit from it all the most.  But im realistic.

Nothing i see Nintendo is doing in the next year will change anything.  Whiel MS has to many disadvntages to turn around to beat PS world wide, no matter how well they do in NA they lost the rest and in the end ill be PS4 with X1 behind it and wiiu holding up the rear.  You can quote me on this.

So much this, it has been a long time before actual PS3 games became my main go to for gaming, for a while I only had Wipeout HD to play on it! (I really like Wipout, but still...)

It was not until I saw God of War 3 that I reuly appreciated the console for what it was (I primarily bought it to stream movies, etc. from my computer).

and question, when is it not too early to call it? if the ps4 and wii u continue to sell this way then why would it have been too early now but not in the future? We dont need to know everything that will happen to be able to say the outcome. We do that on a daily basis.