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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To Wii U "Haters": Why Do You Think Wii U Will Sell On The Same Level Or Worse Than GameCube?

Pillow on 17 December 2013
Soundwave said:
Pillow said:
For further comparison:

GameCube Year 2 (Nov 19, 2002 - Nov 19, 2003):

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Master Quest
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
Wario World
Mario Golf: Toadstool Tour
F-Zero GX
Mario Party 5
Mario Kart: Double Dash!!


Wii U Year 2 (Nov 19, 2013 - Nov 19, 2014):
(speculative)

Super Mario 3D World
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
Mario Kart 8
Super Smash Bros.
Bayonetta 2
X
Yarn Yoshi
Steel Diver: Sub Wars (maybe)
Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem (maybe)

Wii U has the edge in terms of system sellers for its second year compared to the Gamecube. While also having more potential buyers coming from the 30M Mario Kart fanbase. Anyone who denies this will be surprised.

(credits goes to randomengine for making the game list)


This chart is kinda biased tilted towards the Wii U. If you're counting the previous November, then Metroid Prime should be on the GCN side. Resident Evil 0 also came out that November/December if I recall. 

Metroid Prime was really on the fence, thus it was put in first year, but these charts compare 1st party output, since thats the main reason people buy Nintendo hardware.



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Aerys on 17 December 2013
Soundwave said:

There's that chart too courtesy of NeoGaf. 


This.

 

Only a nintendo fanboy(since the word haters is allowed, i guess its the same for the opposite) would say that only haters could think Wi U will sell on the same level than gamecube ( less than 30M is the gamecube level )



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Eddie_Raja on 17 December 2013
Nintentacle said:

I don't exactly understand why people think that. If you think Wii U will preform like that, give a good reason why. I think Wii U will sell 30-35 million.

Also, don't use marketing and game droughts in your reasoning. We're past the game drought and Nintendo started marketing.


If you pair aligh the Wii U and Gamecube sales, the Gamecube is selling twice as well as the Wii U.  So what is your response to that?



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

Soundwave on 17 December 2013
Eddie_Raja said:
Nintentacle said:

I don't exactly understand why people think that. If you think Wii U will preform like that, give a good reason why. I think Wii U will sell 30-35 million.

Also, don't use marketing and game droughts in your reasoning. We're past the game drought and Nintendo started marketing.


If you pair aligh the Wii U and Gamecube sales, the Gamecube is selling twice as well as the Wii U.  So what is your response to that?

Yeah even if does have a better lineup for 2014 than the GCN did in 2003, it really may not matter. Nintendo dropped the GCN to $99.99 in fall 2003 and fall 2003 was the biggest Christmas season for the GCN as a result, so Wii U is probably in very tough to match that with its third Christmas numbers. 

I honestly think things like X and Bayo 2 are just list filler at this point too, that type of game is not selling a statistically significant number of consoles. Personally I'd love it if they sold 10 million copies each, but that's not the reality of the marketplace. 



oniyide on 17 December 2013
Nintentacle said:
oniyide said:
lmao. so youre a hater if you use data and common sense. People have already tore this apart using data. and no its not ahead of ps360

Pay attention. I said it USED to be ahead of the PS360. The huge sales drop on Wii U caused PS360 to eventually get ahead.

Edit: Also, there's a reason I wrote "Haters" instead of haters. It means they're not actually haters.

used to be? and how long ago was that? at launch? i dont think it was ahead of the PS3 or 360 this entire year. it should never have been behind IMHO

far enough



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Nintentacle on 17 December 2013
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.



Soundwave on 17 December 2013
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 



Nintentacle on 17 December 2013

@Everyone, again.
Most of you are making a big deal out of nothing. It's my prediction that Wii U will do better than GameCube, not yours. Plus, 30-35 million isn't that high of a number. Some of you are reacting like I'm predicting 50 million. I just think that the rest of Wii U's life will be better than GameCube, causing it to outsell GameCube. If I'm wrong, I'm fine as long as Nintendo doesn't go bankrupt (I need Zelda!)



fatslob-:O on 17 December 2013
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 

380K seems a little much. I would wager that 330K seems more realistic for december. 



Soundwave on 17 December 2013
fatslob-:O said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 

380K seems a little much. I would wager that 330K seems more realistic for december. 


It could be. I tend to be a little generous in my guesstimates.