Difficult to say, really. Nintendo may be migrating towards convergence of the handheld and home console anyway. The relative lethargy with which they've pushed the Wii U even going into the critical holiday season (although their 2014 lineup seems more yearlong and robust) while continuing to hammer away at 3DS promotion suggests that they themselves may be looking to write the Wii U off.

At the same time, it could simply lead to them focusing on more profitable (read: less ambitious) software for the Wii U while they wait out the 3DS's lifespan and then move to combine the platforms in, perhaps, 2016?

I'm not sure what you know, but "didn't say", logical and sensible seem to be concepts you're struggling with.  You are clearly not a Vulcan investor.

Our friend Joora is contemplating selling his Nintendo shares as we approach the quarterly report.  You said it depends on when he bought them and started talking about things like "losses" and "profit".  These are meaningless terms and rooted in emotion and passion, things you want to get rid of when investing.  What Joora has right now are Nintendo shares.  He doesn't have  $13.09 shares or $14.75 shares or $18.10 shares or $32.50 shares.  He has shares.  What he bought them at is irrelevent.  That transaction is over, and today he has Nintendo shares worth $14.76 as of the minute I wrote this - the same as the ones I bought a month ago.  Today, Joora and I have the exact same shares and are facing the exact same decision as anyone else who owns them.  It doesn't matter how we acquired them.  This is fundamental concept that a good investor should adopt.  One must let go of the idea that these are shares that were purchased at a certain price as it's meaningless now.

The one thing that Joora and I need to think about is are these shares going to go up or down in value, and when.  That's it.  If they are going up, you hold, down you sell.  Personally, I'm debating whether these shares will see a high before earnings or if the earnings will drive them further up and I'm not sure yet.

However, just to use an example of why your advice is terrible, let's say Joora bought the shares at either $14 or $18.  You are anticapating a drop from the current $14.75.  For specifics lets say the drop will be to $12.  According to your logicless logic Jorra should sell if he bought at $14 but keep if he bought at $18 and sit on it.  Let's assume that you think sitting on it is a good idea because you figure it will go higher down the road and maybe get up to $17 or so.  So, if we assume we know what is going to happen with the stock (the "gamble" as you say) the best thing to do with the current $14.75 shares is sell now, buy again at $12 and then sell again at $17.  Under this scenario these 3 trades will make Joora money no matter what the irrelevant previous purchase price is.  It has no impact whatsoever.  However, if he took your advice he would miss that trade because he had previously bought higher and take advantage of it if he bought lower.  There is no logic there.  This train of thought leads to greater losses if you are loosing and greater gains if you are winning but almost always poorly thought out decisions.

Thats true. But just printing money basically has that effect. ;)

It clearly is, because even now you don't understand the concepts.

I think they already have console/portable hybrid machines in their R&D up and running, it probably just won't be feasible to sell them at a sub $250 price point until 2015 or so, which is fine, it will give the 3DS a few more years to squeeze profit.

I also get the sense they are going to look back at getting into the animation feature film business. It's something Yamauchi proposed in 2004, but the DS/Wii took off in such a way that I think Nintendo basically opted against it. But now with Nintendo also dropping a comment about a feature length Legend of Zelda movie ... I think they're going to look to diversify into Japanese animated films that can be marketed worldwide and live action films too. 

There's also Miyamoto's comments that he worked heavily on the Pikmin 3 animated short films, so I think Nintendo will revisit that to give their company a new outlet if their game business is whittled down to one primary console/portable platform. 

Not only to make animated films of existing video game franchises, but if they can create new IP through animation which becomes a hit, then they would have exclusive rights to games based on such an IP, so that could be lucrative also and perhaps is a "safer" way to launch a big IP ... build an audience first through animation then make a game based around it which has an established fanbase already. 

Yup, that is my dilemma nicely put in written text :)

To be worse, there are few rankings (like Zacks) that have put the stocks to buy or even strong buy reccomendation. While I honestly don't kow about/believe those rankings, I'm wondering on what are they basing their rank data.

I'm not even going to pretend that I'm a serious invester, my investment in Ninty was not based on much research, but on belief that there is still future for hanhelds with dedicated physical controls and good library of games. Also, it is based on belief in long line of cash-cow IP's that Nintendo owns and that won't die overnight. Company is healthy, has lots of money in the bank, and regularly posts profits (untill recently). I'm confident that they will manage to get out of current slump with the WiiU sales or atleast minimize the damage by killing it early.

I'm also confident that they will post a profit in the report, but It's almost a given that they will severely cut sales projection for WiiU  for the FY. The million dollar question is how the stock will react, or as TheLastStarFighter put It - to sell now and to buy in again during the fall, or to hold because it won't fall.

I'm not sure about the idea of a hybrid console - N is already a one horse pony (as in, primarly and only a gaming company), and putting all the eggs in only one basket (hybrid console) is taking a huge risk (because that new console could easily become the next WiiU, and there will be no buffer as 3DS is being now).

I think they will have to expand a bit - the animation is a good idea, and on top of that they could get more into video distribution, since it's not dependant on physical media anymore - and they seem to be pretty good in compression department.

My idea of the next generation hanheld would be to keep the same (or similar) concept, as in featuring dual screens - but two variations: one in the shell form, but with all the processing put behind the top screen, which would be detachable and possible to act as a smartphone, featuring a custom version of android (a la amazon) - enabling them total control of the mobile app market. Of course, one could run "serious" games only with the shell extension attached (which would feature an additional battery).

Second version would be a more dedicatied, 2DS-like device, with one large screen, which is separated in two by software when playing games, but can act as a single large screen (tablet) when browsing and similar tasks. 

The key is that the hybrid console would be both handheld and console. It would be its own buffer, in effect. Handheld mainstays like Pokemon and the Japanese affinity for handhelds (and Japanese third parties proclivity to work on Nintendo handhelds) help the platform, while at the same time a plug-and-play function allows for the key Nintendo local multiplayer experience and it has the juice to run Western third party games (if Nintendo successfully entices them next time around)

So long as they didn't take an unnecessary risk with its first iteration, it's a surefire win (also fits Nintendo's philosophy in that it would abandon the direct race against other competitors, so winning without having to win). The only limitation, at the moment, is technology, and given what we're seeing in mobile graphics technology, not that much longer.

I'm very unsure.  In the recent past there is a pattern of a high before the quarter report and a low about one month after.  If you can exploit these waves you can rapidly enlarge your investment.  The problem is the pattern may not repeat, and if the quarter report is good the share price may go on a steady rise through the big selling Christmas period right through to the big 3rd quarter report which will likely show a large profit.  Personally, I think I'm going to watch the market price closely.  If it gets close to or exceeds $16 I will give a good hard thought to selling, but even then I may not - the strong buy ratings may push the pice up.  I won't sell at the current price as I don't think it's much above the potential bottom.

BUMP :)

October 30th 3:00 AM - More than 24 hours left