Possibly, but not as bad as the Wii U

I think both systems will sell better than their gen 7 counterparts. These consoles will be marketed much better than the WiiU, they will bring new features that will get the causal crowd very exited. When people see how well these consoles work with their phones, how much more multitasking they are capable of, and how much faster and smoother the whole experience they will be coming to stores money in hand.

If both consoles have a more professional design, and look like an entertainment device instead of a toy console then I am positive of this. Hopefully we will know in the next 4 weeks.

I think the problem is that this gen has gone for so long. PS3 and 360 have WAY to many good games and MORE good games coming.

There really isn't much of an incentive for lots of people to become early adopters as in previous gens. I know most of us on the forums indeed will become early adopters, but the mass market won't see it that way as they probably still got plenty to finish on last gen.

^ sums it up well

I agree with his remarks, although they will have 3rd party support that the WiiU didn't have at launch and launch window. With that said in terms of first party there won't be a system seller out at launch for either, unless 343 can churn out another Halo. As for Sony, between Killzone 3 and Infamous 2 you have 4 million copies sold; which isn't anything to tout about and neither will move too many consoles.

While you're right the casual market often looks at quantity over quality. Assuming the next gen costs roughly the same amount as an Ipad, you can buy a Ps4 and a game for the same price as an Ipad and 50 games...

I know which one I'd choose, but the average consumer most likely isn't educated enough to make the right decision. 

of course they can. i expect them to as well

Indeed. People need to remember that we on the game forums represent the minority of console consumers. While many of us were chomping at the bit to pick up the 360 and PS3 soon after launch, the majority of those consoles were sold much later as the prices came down and the game libraries became more robust. While some of that was due to the Wii at the time, that option has now been replaced by having more choices of things vying for people's time.

Most people aren't going to see the value in abandoning their current HD console that they purchased in the last few years for a new premium-priced piece of hardware with a small library... particularly when their current consoles will continue to be heavily supported by the industry for at least another couple of years.

It's not that people won't think the new systems are good, but the adoption rate is going to be a slow, timely process regarding the majority.

I think what Sony and Microsoft will have trouble with is finding the perfect cost, 400 dollars is a bit much for todays economy.

I agree with basically everything you wrote there and don't see how that contradicts what I said, except for the bolded.

I do agree that the Nintendo/Wii customer base will most likely be hit harder but I think people underestimate the casual nature of the PS360's fanbase, many of them do follow the trends, and if/when the trends in their circle of friends, etc. move away from those kinds of games they will as well in large amounts. But again I agree that the percentage is lower but still a very large amount.