Not only surpass, it'll leave it in the distance, simply put even with supply constrints its still outpacing it in Japan and NA, only in others is it undertracking the PS2, and that will change once Wii fit hits

As for length, I can only see Nintendo replacing the Wii, if it goes into final decline or a competitor threatens to disrupt them

SO you see a wii2 in the near future.

I believe yes.  The wii hasn't even dropped in price yet and it is still being sold out.  Once sales start slowing down a price drop will happen, which will then cause the inventory to remain sold out.   I think it is a no brainer that it will surpass PS2 sales.  

Personally I own an XBOX 360 and a Wii if anyone cares. 

I may buy a PS3 in the future when there are some games I am interested in that I can't buy on the 360 or the Wii.

-Paul

No. Wii won't be on the market long enough to accomplish this. If Wii had released when 360 had and had a similar first year, then I'd say yes, but given current circumstances it won't. Wii lifetime sales will probably be between 80-100 million. With a possibility of as high as 110 million and as low as 70 million seeing that everything is unpredictable.

Simple Answer...No Chance...

Let's see... They've made about 20 million so far, and are likely to up production again once the fiscal year ends in March, so let's calculate this out...

To date: ~20mil (highest: 1.8mil/month)
Feb 2008 to Feb 2009: ~60mil (+40mil) (highest: 3.5mil/month)
Feb 2009 to Feb 2010: ~102mil (+42mil) (highest: 3.5mil/month)
Feb 2010 to Feb 2011: ~134mil (+32mil) (highest: 2.7mil/month)
Feb 2011 to Feb 2012: ~155mil (+21mil) (highest: 1.8mil/month)

This is based off of standard production trends of top-selling consoles, adjusted for the fact that a price drop has not yet happened. Said price drop will likely occur in 2009 at earliest (based off of continued supply shortages in spite of heightened production), hence why that's basically their banner year by my prediction. This is also assuming that they work along the same trends as the PS2 did, which seems... marginally unlikely. The Wii's target market is substantially bigger. So take this as a more or less "worst-case scenario" prediction, if you will.

Yes, but only if it keeps up its pace and I think it will.

Market trends tend to be fairly reliable. For the most part, you see a bell curve of sales for successful consoles: sales are lowest near the start, then pick up gradually over the course of a few years until supply meets demand, and then the sales slowly taper off, roughly at the same pace that they went up by (though generally speaking, the tapering off is a bit faster than the build-up).

Consoles which don't take off generally hit their sales peak within their first two years, and then taper off drastically, usually with only brief recoveries during the holidays. Also noteworthy is that the number of units sold by this two-year mark is almost always 33% to 66% lower than whichever console is "winning", after curve adjustments to align the launches. It's not a constant, but it does happen most generations. There simply is no such thing as a three-way tie. The closest you get is the battle for second/third/fourth/whatever places.

Yes. Wii will surpass the PS2 if Nintendo supports it long enough.

 Nope, since no body is close to disrupting them