A corollary to my last thread on software sales (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=156943).

Lots of people have said they're waiting for more first party offerings before buying a Wii U. How do you think the system will sell once games like Mario Kart, Smash Bros. and Zelda are out?

hmm 50-6o thousand on an average week.

I think we will see a slow, gradual increase starting next week when MH3, Lego and so forth come out. When DQX hits Japan I think the system will start to gain some traction there. Then with Pikmin, WiiFit and others in the summer more growth. E3 could potentially create buzz and drive sales. I think at that stage we should be seeing sales averaging at least 50k per week, maybe more if some real awesome stuff is announced. As we move into fall with WindWaker at that stage sales should jump considerably, and if MarioU, MarioKart or both hit - massive jumps up to 6 figures sales and of course, huge weeks around Christmas. But as I said in the other thread, we need to know a little more about the titles. Super Mario Universe could have a huge impact. Super Mario Sunshine 2 could be a dud. Also, we need to know if there is going to be a price cut. If there is, I would expect sales to be 20-50% more with the same titles.

When Mario Kart is released it will sell about 800,000 that week.

You really don't think a Sunshine 2 could sell well? Didn't it sell over 6 million on Gamecube?

I don't expect a price cut anytime soon. It'd be one thing if that was what pushed them into taking losses per unit, but it already is. I think they're gonna wait and see how more software pushes sales before they take that risk.

Through Spring and Summer, I don't see anything that's going to provide a sustained push to hardware. It would surprise me to see the Wii U climb above 50k on any given week. There is just nothing really compelling releasing in the short-term. When does Pikmin 4 release, by the way? I keep reading different things.

Post E3, I don't know. It's going to depend on how the major releases stack up.

I think Sunshine 2 would sell well. I just don't think it would have the same impact as Super Mario Universe.  Just like Toon Link, there is a significant portion of the fringe Nintendo lovers who are put off when Nintendo gets too kiddie.  3D Mario needs to be a flagship title, a game that can make an audience go "wow!".  Mario flying through the galaxy jumping from planet to planet does that.  Mario on vacation with a water gun does not.  Where this title goes, so does the system.

As of today, I would be 99% certain that not only is Nintendo not losing money on Wii U's in the US and Europe, but they are making money.  Nintendo projected a small loss on the system (less than the revenue of 1-2 games) when there was an 80 yen dollar.  As of this morning it is 95.73 yen dollar.  Every WiiU sold now is bringing 18% more revenue back to NHQ in Japan.  So in simple terms, it's not a stretch to say that Nintendo could drop WiiU pricing by $50 and maintain the same or better margains.  If we see a 100yen dollar I think it becomes not only possible, but likely.  It also depends greatly on PS4 pricing though. A $500 Sony would likely mean no need to drop pricing on Wii U.

Of course there is no point in dropping price without games, but I could see a very likely scenario where this fall Nintendo loses the basic set, drops deluxe to $299 and hits the market with Wind Waker HD and later Super Mario Universe and/or MarioKartU and possibly X and Retro's game. I expect Nintendo to be preparing an all-out market blitz to battle other system launches.

40k global... up by 10k a week..

Why is this only for Nintendo fans? We should be a big tent. Sony and MS fans are just as capable of making objective predictions about hardware sales.

Depends on what you mean by heavy-hitters, though.  I don't think Game & Wario qualifies as a system-seller, nor do I think Wii Fit U will have much of impact this time around.

Pikmin will help move some units, as will LEGO City and Monster Hunter. 

Beyond that, maybe W101 will move some decent numbers and help system sales in the summer.  But really, Wind Waker HD, 3D Mario, and Mario Kart are needed this holiday season to make it competitive with other systems.

I think once the big games are out sales should rise to about GC levels (not sure what that is). I don't see it ever doing better than that, unless they produce another Wii Sports type hit.