| sperrico87 said: Looking to the future, Nintendo's only real concerns are broadening the market of the 3DS in US/Europe where it is soft, and making sure they keep Wii U sales at a sustainable level where there isn't need for a markdown. |
That is the heart of the matter, for sure.
| sperrico87 said: Animal Crossing's explosion in sales should be enough to alleviate people's concerns that Nintendo's business model can still succeed in today's market. The game is selling at a 60% rate to women, many of whom already own smartphones. Women typically account for less than 30% of Nintendo platform owners, so it is indeed a broad market success story and Nintendo should be congratulated as such. Looking to the future, Nintendo's only real concerns are broadening the market of the 3DS in US/Europe where it is soft, and making sure they keep Wii U sales at a sustainable level where there isn't need for a markdown. The answer to both of these concerns is of course software. Software, software, software. |
The Wii U will need a price cut by spring, though Nintendo may hold until summer. But it will become extremely evident by March, just watch.
I don't see Animal Crossing having the same success, women in Europe and North America with smartphones are not going to give a crap.
The 3DS works so well in Japan because people use their DS/3DS/PSP as their primary/only game machine period, the console market is going away there.
If they pay out like they have that would be a 7% yield for me. I can live with that, we shall see.
| sperrico87 said: Animal Crossing's explosion in sales should be enough to alleviate people's concerns that Nintendo's business model can still succeed in today's market. The game is selling at a 60% rate to women, many of whom already own smartphones. Great point. Looking to the future, Nintendo's only real concerns are broadening the market of the 3DS in US/Europe where it is soft, and making sure they keep Wii U sales at a sustainable level where there isn't need for a markdown. The answer to both of these concerns is make a mobile phone, and pay for third party support NOW, and before the other companies release their new consoles. |
notes added
“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.
I am a bit worried overall; however, the yen being in their favor will hopefully propel them to profitably. Nintendo has a 8 months window before the competition starts arriving, it needs to release compelling software every month to get fans entertained and new buyers alike to keep this system in the public eye
megaman79 said:
|
A Nintendo Phone is a great idea. Provides: Phone, Gaming, Social Networking, Internet Browsing, Mapping. An ultimate gamers phone.
It wouldn't take market share significantly from Apple or Samsung or Nokia, but it would be the biggest Nintendo Handheld ever if it came with a good phone plan and was subsidized.
Years down the line I can see this as a likelihood. More likely than Nintendo selling Mario Apps for your iPhone.
Is there a sense of expectations regarding the 52 week range of 2013?
Mine would be 11-17, does that seem fair?
Copying this info here that I posted on another thread, for Reference:
| Year | Nintendo Net Sales as of end Sept. | Nintendo Net Sales as of end March | March divided by Sept |
| 2006 | 298,817 | 966,534 | 3.23 |
| 2007 | 694,803 | 1,672,423 | 2.4 |
| 2008 | 836,879 | 1,838,622 | 2.19 |
| 2009 | 548,058 | 1,434,365 | 2.62 |
| 2010 | 363,160 | 1,014,345 | 2.79 |
| 2011 | 215,738 | 647,652 | 3 |
2012 Projected 800 Billion Yen Sept. - 200,000 Billion March - ???
Based on the above it's safe to bet that Nintendo will fall well short of their projected 800 Billion in Net Sales, especially given the 3DS & Wii U hardware misses. Better than expected Wii & DS Software, and slightly better Wii & DS hardware will not be enough to make up for them.
| Augen said: Is there a sense of expectations regarding the 52 week range of 2013? Mine would be 11-17, does that seem fair? |
That range is fairly pessimistic actually.
One thing's for certain: 2013 is the year that the Wii U and 3DS officially take the torch, and carry it forward for Nintendo.
If Nintendo can begin to announce and launch big Wii U games, and market & sell the Wii U successfully in 2013 such that sales track consistently to do even 50% - 80% of Wii's numbers, then we should see the stock break over $17 and I'd put the 52-Week high for Calendar 2013 closer to $20 if everything goes right.
There is a serious rain-cloud over Nintendo's stock. It is dramatically out of favor with investors. The reason, Nintendo has to prove profitability, and they have to prove the value of their new systems. The negativity surrounding Wii U is tremendous, and all the bad hype hits Investors desks. And when Nintendo can't defend itself against the bad hype, by missing their own sales projections - the stock gets pummeled.
An optimistic view for Nintendo shares hits a high of around $20 this year, a 66% gain from today's levels. If somehow, some way - Nintendo manages to pull a rabbit out of their hat, and the Wii U catches fire, I mean Wii like fire...there's no telling how high the stock will go.
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