How can people even make predictions like this with absolutely nothing known about the ps4 or nextbox? Way too early to make predictions like this.

Also, the op seems to think japan is bigger than it is. You realize the ps3 has sold more in american then all the consoles combined in japan? And the ps3 is a pretty distant last place in america...

The Wii U might lead. Your predictions seem a little too bloated though.
It will not be like last generation when the Wii was leaving everyone in the dust, it's gonna be closer. Much, much closer this gen.

It'll either be the NextBox or the Wii U who are in the lead.
Then again, we no nothing of the PS4/NextBox.

America - MS Land
Europe - Sony Land
Japan - Nintendo Land

That's how is going to end.

I find it difficult to predict how the consoles will actually perform relative to each other without knowing things like game lineups, etc. For instance, if Sony can get more exclusive Final Fantasy, it could protect them in Japan. MS could get an exclusive FF, on the other hand, which could allow it to finally break seriously into the Japanese market.

But what interests me is the attitudes, rather than the sales numbers.

My prediction is actually one of a difference in alignment. In the 7th generation, Nintendo went its own way, while Sony and MS pretty much mirrored each other. I don't think that's going to happen again this generation.

Nintendo's path, of course, is already somewhat laid out. Their task now is to get some more exclusives and to draw more third-party multiplatform games to be best on the Wii U. But the die has already been cast, for them.

Microsoft, I think, will want to further bring PC and Xbox together. I think that their motivation for getting into the race to begin with will assert itself again, and we will see the Xbox Successor being significantly more powerful, and more expensive, with a Windows 8-like interface. I also suspect that we will see the underlying system being very similar to a PC, so much so that most Xbox Successor games will also be PC titles - MS's hope will be to make them almost synonymous, so that PC and Windows is protected.

But Sony is the interesting one. They're in an unstable financial position, meaning that they've no chance of selling their system at a huge loss as with the PS3 at the start of the 7th generation. And their experience with the high price of the PS3 at launch will force them to keep their price relatively low. As a result, I predict that the PS Successor will not be much more powerful than the Wii U - say, within a factor of 2x, comparable to the gap between the PS2 and Gamecube (but in reverse, of course). I also predict that Sony will emulate much of Nintendo's direction, with more focus on Move and other non-traditional controls.

And my main prediction is that this change in alignment in the 8th generation will result in some interesting dynamics. More games will be WiiU/PSS (Playstation Successor) or PC/XBS (Xbox Successor), rather than the 360/PS3 pairing that was most common in the 7th generation. Note that I make no prediction of which side will be more successful - that's something that is yet to be seen, although if history continues to repeat itself in this regard, the Wii U will be most successful due to its lower power (lowest-power system seems to always do best), while the XBS will struggle as developers focus more on the pair that is easier to port between. But then, it's hard to say - XBS might do best because it's the only one that developers think of as "really next-gen"... which would be sad, in my view, but I could certainly see it happening.

I don't see how Japan is going to be a big effect on the global sales. This gen, the Wii had a measly 4m lead over the PS3. At best, you can hope for a 8m lead next generation and that's being extremely optimistic.

BTW, this thread will be bookmarked for future reference.

I wouldnt say lower power systems always do the best.  Sega is your example

Great post.

lol honestly this prediction of yours is heavily based on wishful thinking. Wait to at least see the systems first and get an idea on their specific goals and such. Better way to make a proper prediction.

ps: I remember you well, so this is hardly surprising coming from you though. Let's see how your predictions go down this time around

As a massive Nintendo fan (I was one of the few people who in 2006 pre release thought the Wii would be a success and was the way forwards for Nintendo as they can't afford to compete head to head on raw power), I don't see the Wii U enjoying anywhere near the success that the Wii had.

I think MS will pretty much maintain where they are, I think Sony will improve their US performance by launching closer to the next Xbox, and promoting stuff such as Uncharted. As it is, I don't see anywhere near the market for Nintendo this time around.

However, there is a big unless in that, as Nintendo prove time and time again, all they need is the "killer app" showing off their system to it's full potential. They've not unveiled that yet, but they don't have any competition yet. I think we need to see what Nintendo show us in the next 6 months before we can make any realistic predictions on their situation this generation.

All I know is ports of PS360 games will not make for good 3rd party software sales in the long run. The system is definitely powerful enough to carve it's own market out again though.

Epic LOL won't happen