Yep. I don't believe consoles with strong brand recognition can simply 'fail'. But I do think microsoft will come last. My guess though.

so which of these 5 reasons was not valid before the 360 started? And since then the Xbox brand grew massively.

Didn't help the original xbox, people won't buy a console just because the company who make's it is rich.

Plus these are all valid points.

Speaking as someone who prefers Sony - MS will "win" next-gen. But I think it's gonna be different gen than the others that is not only about games, one that combines console, mobile and PC space. So, although they will have another important competitor (Valve), I think their Win8/XboxLive integration into all devices will put them in unique place to come out on top.

I certainly agree that if Valve is going to damage any company with its new console, it will be Microsoft.

@OP: Thanks for the list of reasons. I don't really agree with them though. A lot of what you mentioned as liabilities could also be called assets. Microsoft wisely decided to make its console a multimedia hub, a beacon in the living room that brings together games, movies, Netflix, sports, etc. Remember that more people use Xbox LIVE for its multimedia applications than its online gaming.

I tend to agree about Kinect being a double-edged sword, but we've yet to see what Kinect 2.0 will look like. I'm still hoping Kinect 2.0 will provide a renaissance for Rare.

The two biggest warning signs are lack of exclusive software -- something Microsoft seems to be genuinely concerned with fixing -- and overreliance on North America. But these are more of long-term problems; so Microsoft has time to fix them. And hopefully it will. If it doesn't it only has itself to blame.

Who knows what the future brings for Microsoft, but I would wager that it won't fall to third place during the eighth generation.

Each of your points make the assumption Microsoft will not adapt and move with the times which isn't really backed up by evidence of their strategy this gen. They have constantly evolved throughout this generation and that will continue in the future. Obviously not much has changed this last year with the 360 but that's mainly due to a structured transition preparing people for the next Xbox experience.

If Microsoft released a more powerful Xbox with no innovative features then your points would be very relevant, I just don't see that happening if I'm honest, the Next Xbox will be the strongest hardware next generation and they'll be gambling the most I think.

Of course this is my opinion not backed up in any way by fact

I proclaim this to be folly.

Like mbp said, they have a $70B in cash, this might not make the immune to mistake, but it does provide them with the mother of all cushions to "fix" things.

Exclusives? MS has been ramping up studios like crazy.

XBL Gold? People may claim nobody's going to pay for it, but they are, plain and simple. Oh, and like I said, mother of all cushion cutting price or free is all in their reach.

All in all, any of the 3 can become 3rd place, but that console will still likely sell more than 65M.

Hard to really agree with any of those points.

1. You claim they blasted Nintendo's family approach, but I recall quite differently, that when the Wii was getting released, the Xbox spokesperson praised Nintendo's approach. I don't think this is really a valid point.

2. I don't see this as effecting many people's decision to buy a console or not.

3. This is incorrect, we know Microsoft has exclusives, and the second strongest exclusive brands, it is actually Sony who is failing here with weak brands and declining brands.

4. No different than any other generation for Microsoft. Although Japan is a territory where Sony will definitely see notable decline. Especially with the collapse of Japanese interest in titles on Sony platforms. So this primarily effects Sony.

5. You are basing this point on rumours. Not valid.

In any case, I don't see how the Xbox brand is going to really decline in the territories it is selling best in, I think they're actually the safest bet to meet/exceed this gen, primarily English speaking areas. Wii U is really an unknown at this time since Nintendo has not even revealed any of their big guns and its start still looks to be solid none-the-less; given 6 years, it could sell 40 million, it could sell 120 million; my guess is that it will be first next generation. Given Sony's clumsy strategy with the Vita - making a system with a bunch of features no one cares about at the price they're selling it at - they seem to be the ones most in danger of stumbling down the hardest.

This is a nice read. The part about Xbox Live is interesting. People pay for that now, they will pay for it next gen no doubt. Those consumers are loyal to the Xbox brand, it dosent matter what the competition offers there will always be millions of fans who will pay for Gold membership, just like they are now.

I'm not sure about games, since at the moment, Nintendo included, the best selling games, and the most popular are 3rd party games. Thats not going to change. So even if Microsoft dosent have many first party games, they have 3rd party games that will sell on the console.

The thing that I think will be the major difference next gen is the price point. Will Sony release cheaper than than Microsoft, at roughly the same time, or even before.

However I do want my new Sony console eventually, so I hope that Sony bring it out next year or 2014, this gen is nearing the end imo.

Nobody gives a shit about Japan. JRPGs are dead, thank god.

-moderated by amp316 (warning)