I wouldn't put too much stock in the ports and multiplatform titles that launched with Wii U, or the games that were already in development for different consoles when Wii U launched. Wii U will be OK in 2012-2013 with its tremendous first-party software, some third party exclusives, and enough general third party support to stay afloat. What really matters is 2014-2016.

I really think Nintendo upgraded its console to protect it against the future, not to steal consumers from Microsoft and Playstation. What I mean is that the Wii U is designed to win over old and new consumers, and KEEP them. The Wii was a revolution but it faded in the home stretch. Many Wii owners, I'm sure, tried out new video game platforms after the Wii began to decline. All serious video game enthusiasts, if they have the money and time, will by a Wii U so they can play its exclusives. The biggest and most important audience are those who are only marginally interested in video games -- the people who are now buying 360s and PS3s. If the Wii U is the cheapest option during the eighth generation, and it gets enough of the sexy third party games, it can definitely win over consumers and keep them happy until the ninth generation.

Like I said before, the key question is how powerful will the next generation systems be, and what choices will Rockstar, Bethesda, and others make. If the 720 and PS4 have incredible horsepower and third parties decide to develop specifically for those platforms, Wii U might be left behind. But if they have incredible horsepower they will be incredibly expensive (unless sold for a huge loss) and consumers might balk.

However, if they are close in horsepower to Wii U (which I suspect they will be), then there is no reason Wii U cannot earn those high-profile third party titles. Unless the developers don't think their games would do well on Wii U, which might be true of some games. But I'd be shocked if games like Grand Theft Auto and The Elder Scrolls sold poorly on any system.

Couldn't agree more. Nintendo's one year advantage is ok, but if they can't even get all PS3/360 games on the system for that year, how good will the support be once the PS4/Nextbox come out?

Very poor is my opinion :/

@Veknoid_Outcast: although the gamecube was cheaper than the PS2 during the later half of the generation, it still sold considering worse than it, consumers saw the PS2's value compared to the PS2. The WiiU will need to be AT LEAST $150 cheaper than the PS4/Nextbox to be succesful in that respect, which I doubt is going to happen (unless Nintendo pulls another 3DS on us).

Those titles releasing now and in the next 10 months are incredibly important because they could be enough to tide people over until the other consoles are released and that would pretty much take away any advantage Nintendo might have had by releasing early.  Then it becomes a matter of what compromises Nintendo had to make to launch earlier becoming disadvantages.

I think both the next Xbox and Playstation consoles are going to be significantly more powerful than WiiU so it will all come down to people choosing between better graphics, AI, physics, etc or a controller that offers the possibility of better interaction with games.  As for third parties they will go where the core gamers go so November/December 2013 will pretty much decide the future of console gaming.

If we see a significant shift of core gamers to the next Xbox/Playstation to play Call of Duty on those platforms then the vast majority of third parties and AAA games will move to those platforms and the specs they have.  If core gamers instead opt to get a WiiU because they feel the WiiU Gamepad will make a better experience for them then WiiU will be the lead console for many AAA third party games.

It's not going to matter in 2014 and 2015 because it's all going to be decided before that.  People tend to want to play online games with their friends so it'll be a snowball effect for whichever side wins at the end of 2013.  As for those that argue about budgets, it's the same arguement that was had between Wii and 360/PS3 and what we've seen is that publishers go where the audience is regardless of the budget.

I'm unsure how you're using the term "core gamer." Do you mean video game hobbyist? Surely those people will buy all three systems.

You are definitely right about the PS2 crushing the Gamecube, indeed all competition. But I don't think it's approproate to compare the sixth and eighth generations. PS2 launched first, had DVD playback (1), built upon the incredible legacy of PS1 (2), etc., etc. Gamecube built off the diminished legacy of N64 (3), was marketed poorly (4), had no Grand Theft Auto (5), etc.

(6) Also, the $150 price difference is just way too high. Are you saying that if the Xbox 720 is priced at $400, the Wii U will have to be $250 to get traction? I don't buy it.

Do keep in mind that most video game console owners aren't like us. They don't play every game they can get their hands on. (7). They play Halo, and Mario, and Call of Duty, and GTA, and Pokemon, but they don't often invest in low-profile games. If Wii U can get GTA, Call of Duty, The Elder Scrolls, and Assassin's Creed it should do just fine. All it has to do is pump out its first-party titles, secure a few exclusive gems, and get just enough third party support to stay in the conversation.

It would be damn hard for a consumer to pass up a system that offers (8). Super Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, GTA, COD, and Assassin's Creed -- all in HD -- plus multimedia capabilities and a unique social application.

In response to your comments:

(1). I'm not so certain of the Nextbox, but with the PS4 certain to have Blu-ray, that would surely be a point worth mentioning value wise. 
(2). The PS3 and 360 are both ending the generation on a high with blockbuster games still coming out for the systems.
(3). Similar to the above, but the other way, a poor last 2/3 years has really hurt the Wii, you could argue Kinect has more momentum right now.
(4). I don't know if you saw it, but there was a thread in Vgchartz not too long along about advertisement's for the WiiU, or more importantly, how poor they are and how they weren't aimed at the target audience properly.
(5). GTA5 hasn't been announced for the WiiU yet.
(6). With the above reasons, its not that out of the question that the WiiU would have to be seriously cheaper than the competition for it to be popular, games right now aren't that much better than the PS3 and 360 versions, they aren't going to be matching the Nextbox and PS4 versions either, so its going to be a tough sell for the WiiU I think (especially since the PS3 and 360 could stay alive for a while like the PS2 for 2006/7).
(7). In regards to those multiplatform games: Call of Duty has sales because everyone plays it and so do their friends, but right now, sales aren't great for the WiiU version (sort of like an anti snow ball effect). The Elder Scrolls games only release once every 4 and a half years, its a long way from now. The WiiU version of Assassin's Creed isn't advertised, its the PS3 version that is, unless Nintendo gets Ubisoft to advertise the WiiU version, sales will be mostly on the Ps3 version (with considerable sales on 360 too of course). Also, Pokemon is great for handhelds, but the console versions are considering less popular, Nintendo needs a Pokemon MMO, THAT would be a blockbuster.
(8). 3D Mario, Zelda and Pokemon were all on the N64 and GC, I don't see being that outstanding. COD and Assassin's Creed are good steps, but Nintendo needs to build a brand affiliation with COD and Assassin's Creed for them to be successful and to stay on the system once the Nextbox and PS4 come out. GTA is key, if they announce that for the WiiU, it would help change people's mentality of the company considerably.