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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predicting the Next-Gen: The Future of PS4 and X3ox

 

Am I right in my analysis?

Hellz to the yeah! 39 32.23%
 
Oh, Heeeellz no! 43 35.54%
 
I think you're forgettin... 24 19.83%
 
I'm too stupid to unders... 12 9.92%
 
Total:118
KeptoKnight on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:
JEMC said:

I agree with kain_kusanagi that Msoft will go the extra mile with the nextbox. If only because they have the money for it and because that's what they did with the xbox360 and worked wonders for them. They have gone from selling 22 millions to sell 70, earning a lot of money and being the "hardcore" console of choice in the US. Why do they have to change?

Sony will also try to make a big jump, but in their case they will try to lose as little money as possible. Yes, the currency of the Yen is hurting them, but don't forget that people bought PS3s at $499 and that thought they have always had the most expensive console this gen, they have sold almost as machines as Microsoft. They could launch it at $399 or $449 for a profit or very small loss and still be successful.

That's why we heard rumors of 8-core CPUs for the nextbox with an HD7xxx series GPU for the nextbox while we hear about APUs with an aditional GPU in Xfire.

I also belive MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation


That's the most important question of this new generation!



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DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
Nem said:
DanneSandin said:

The Wii U has been released and thus begun the next gen of gaming. But what will the next gen look like? How will Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo shape gaming the next few years? Shall we dare to make some predictions now, even though we're just DAYS into the new generation?!

Here is my thoughts of current events that may foretell what's to come.

Sony has just received junk status by rating agency Fitch.

Sony's financial situation is dire indeed; their credit rating has been cut several times this year alone, effecting their possibilities of getting further loans AND getting higher interests on their loans.

Recent rumors have it that Microsoft will release TWO different Xbox's next gen.

Apparently Microsoft will be releasing two different kinds of Xbox's when the next gen gets a-rolling; one Xbox will focus on Xbox360's core entertainment services with casual games, and the other Xbox will focus on more core games.

What I'm thinking right now is that PS4 will be closer to Wii U in regards of power, as a direct result of Sony's financial trouble; they can't afford to lose too much money, so they might just opt to actually MAKE money of the PS4 right out the gates. Microsoft on the other hand is in a splendid position to make a beast of a console; they could simply sell the "casual Xbox entertainment system" (henceforth dubbed XES) at a profit, and then in return use this profit to sell the Xbox720 (the core gaming system) at an even greater loss, uping the specs and the power.

And how will this reflect on the next gen, then? IF all of this would come to be true, I see 2 possible out comes; A) IF X3ox sells like crazy, and far out sells BOTH PS4 and Wii U, it will receive the bulk of ALL 3rd party games and "winning" next gen. B) IF PS4 and Wii U sell decent numbers 3rd party developers will make games/ports for these consoles, which in turn, will mean that no 3rd party multiplat game will use x3ox's full power, thus making the x3ox's excess of power utterly useless... and costly. And it's point B) that makes me think that Microsoft WON'T make a beastly powerful console...

Never the less, I see the XES bringing in quite a nice profit if it's done right.

What do the rest of you think??


I completely agree. I have been saying that for a while but everyone just laughs at me cause they didnt have the foresight.

That is why i always said the Wii U has a real chance of winning next gen.

Sony cant play microsoft's game this gen, their only chance is to glue to Nintendo making their combined sales the large majority of the market and leaving microsoft to be the outsider. Imagine rougly Wii sales + PS3 sales vs 360 sales. With similar specs, developers will bring their games to the first two as the main market and then might port it to the more powerful Xbox.

But, Microsoft arent dumb like Sony execs. They want to launch with kinect and that costs money. The difference is, they can take the losses. For Microsoft the scenarios are: Similar in power to the others with kinect at a competitive price, resulting in all going fair game. But, Microsoft is more devious than that. They will make a more powerful machine and they will see it at a lower price than the PS4. That is their trump card and strength. They can take losses. If Microsoft goes for a price war, they will push Sony out of the market, BUT if the PS4 glues to the Wii U, they would always have the majority of the market together unless indeed Microsoft manages to make a very enticing offer.

With all this, the Wii U at a competitive price, with the other consoles gluing to it roughly in terms of power and having released one year earlier and having powerful nintendo franchises has a really good chance of taking the prize home.

I am very curious to see how things pan out. I was planning to get a Playstation 4 next gen because i want to play online (and im not paying microsoft to do it). Given the PS4 is starting to sound like a risky purchase, the Wii U appears in good position to me. I would still rather go back to Sony for PSN+ and free online gaming.

 

I forgot to mention: If Sony keeps showing their tactless aproach and indeed launch a powerful system at a high price, they will most probably be ratted out of the market by microsoft most effectively, with their much cheaper but just as powerful system. Without money, theres nothing Sony can do about it. Lets hope they have learned.

I'm gonna go a head and quote myself from the post above yours:

I also believe MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation

And, if MS releases a xbox lite which they make money of from, and target at another audience so that it won't compete with xbox720, MS will not even lose too much money...

To sum things up; great minds think alike ;)



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
JEMC said:
DanneSandin said:
JEMC said:

I agree with kain_kusanagi that Msoft will go the extra mile with the nextbox. If only because they have the money for it and because that's what they did with the xbox360 and worked wonders for them. They have gone from selling 22 millions to sell 70, earning a lot of money and being the "hardcore" console of choice in the US. Why do they have to change?

Sony will also try to make a big jump, but in their case they will try to lose as little money as possible. Yes, the currency of the Yen is hurting them, but don't forget that people bought PS3s at $499 and that thought they have always had the most expensive console this gen, they have sold almost as machines as Microsoft. They could launch it at $399 or $449 for a profit or very small loss and still be successful.

That's why we heard rumors of 8-core CPUs for the nextbox with an HD7xxx series GPU for the nextbox while we hear about APUs with an aditional GPU in Xfire.

I also belive MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation

It's not as simple as userbase = support. If it was, Wii would have a much. much bigger library. It's also about the audience, which is the reason Nintendo has stated several times that they want to regain the harcores with WiiU.

Now, think about what you just said... Perhaps I explained myself poorly, so that you didn't understand, so I'll try to explain easier. Wii's userbase: 100 million. HD-twins userbase 140 million. Now, which install base had most games? And what if (this is just hypothetically) Wii U and PS4 userbase were 100 million and x3ox userbase were 50 million? WiiStation would get the support.

And don't forget that if the nextbox is much more powerful, devs will be able to port their PS4/WiiU games to it easily as the hardware will compensate the lack of optimization. No, if the nextbox (or the PS4 although it is less likely) are much more powerful, they will also get the games, but they won't take advantage of that power.

Yes, if x3ox is much more powerful it'll receive the same game - no doubt. But if WiiStation's combined userbase is bigger than that of x3ox it'll be the leading platform to develop for. And this means that the ports x3ox gets won't use the consoles full power, meaning that MS has thrown away a lot of money for nothing.

But that's what 1st party games/studios are for.

Yes, and it's here where Nintendo is better than any other console maker.

Oh, and I'm afraid that PS4 will be too powerful to put it in the same ballpark as WiiU. They won't include a Gamepad like controller.

Considering the high yen and Sony's finances I'd say there's a risk PS4 won't be too powerful...

I think it will be something like  nextbox > PS4 >> WiiU, or WiiU = 1, PS4 = 2xWiiU, Nextbox = 1.5xPS4.

I agree that Wii U will be weakest, but I'm not sure if that'll be a bad thing. It all depends on the power of PS720





I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
KeptoKnight said:
DanneSandin said:
JEMC said:

I agree with kain_kusanagi that Msoft will go the extra mile with the nextbox. If only because they have the money for it and because that's what they did with the xbox360 and worked wonders for them. They have gone from selling 22 millions to sell 70, earning a lot of money and being the "hardcore" console of choice in the US. Why do they have to change?

Sony will also try to make a big jump, but in their case they will try to lose as little money as possible. Yes, the currency of the Yen is hurting them, but don't forget that people bought PS3s at $499 and that thought they have always had the most expensive console this gen, they have sold almost as machines as Microsoft. They could launch it at $399 or $449 for a profit or very small loss and still be successful.

That's why we heard rumors of 8-core CPUs for the nextbox with an HD7xxx series GPU for the nextbox while we hear about APUs with an aditional GPU in Xfire.

I also belive MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation


That's the most important question of this new generation!

Yes, and how will the install bases look like?!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

KeptoKnight on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:
KeptoKnight said:
DanneSandin said:
JEMC said:

I agree with kain_kusanagi that Msoft will go the extra mile with the nextbox. If only because they have the money for it and because that's what they did with the xbox360 and worked wonders for them. They have gone from selling 22 millions to sell 70, earning a lot of money and being the "hardcore" console of choice in the US. Why do they have to change?

Sony will also try to make a big jump, but in their case they will try to lose as little money as possible. Yes, the currency of the Yen is hurting them, but don't forget that people bought PS3s at $499 and that thought they have always had the most expensive console this gen, they have sold almost as machines as Microsoft. They could launch it at $399 or $449 for a profit or very small loss and still be successful.

That's why we heard rumors of 8-core CPUs for the nextbox with an HD7xxx series GPU for the nextbox while we hear about APUs with an aditional GPU in Xfire.

I also belive MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation


That's the most important question of this new generation!

Yes, and how will the install bases look like?!

This -----> WiiStation Vs XboX. I'll put money on it. Power is a thing of the past. =(



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DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
KeptoKnight said:
DanneSandin said:
KeptoKnight said:


That's the most important question of this new generation!

Yes, and how will the install bases look like?!

This -----> WiiStation Vs XboX. I'll put money on it. Power is a thing of the past. =(

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that'll be the case as well :P



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Jay520 on 22 November 2012

Let's hope Sony doesn't focus so much on power like they did with the PS4. They should go back and use power strategies from the PS1/PS2 days. This would save them money which they desperately need. It would also cause higher sales as it lowers the price for consumers. The most powerful console has never won a generation, and I doubt that's going to change next generation, especially with the rising costs for developers to actually utilize that power. I don't see any console being excessively more powerful than the other console. If it is, then I don't see any possible scenario where that console will win the generation.



HappySqurriel on 22 November 2012

Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.



DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
Jay520 said:
Let's hope Sony doesn't focus so much on power like they did with the PS4. They should go back and use power strategies from the PS1/PS2 days. This would save them money which they desperately need. It would also cause higher sales as it lowers the price for consumers. The most powerful console has never won a generation, and I doubt that's going to change next generation, especially with the rising costs for developers to actually utilize that power. I don't see any console being excessively more powerful than the other console. If it is, then I don't see any possible scenario where that console will win the generation.

I agree, but I don't know what kind of strategy Sony could use to win next gen. 3rd party exclusive is a by gone era; and that's what made the PS1&2 so very, very successful! No 3rd party exclusives=fail for sony. Well, fail is perhaps a bit too harsh, but it's what makes and breaks them, as made obvious by the Xbox360. IMO.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

sethnintendo on 22 November 2012

I'm hoping for Microsoft to flop like the Surface is about to and Sony to improve. Right now I would rather see Sony do better in the home console industry than Microsoft. I use Windows OS for desktop but that is about the only thing I will ever use from Microsoft. Some reason I just don't like the company and I view them worse for the industry than Sony.