Will this November's NPD break the YoY software decline In America

enrageorange

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enrageorange on 28 September 2012

So far this year, every single month software has been down YoY according to NPD. Will this November be able to change that streak.

Last year's November NPD, total software = $1.74billion
Top 10 software

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (360, PS3, WII, PC)** Activision Blizzard 8.99 million
2. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (360, PS3, PC)** Bethesda Softworks - 2.8 million
3. Battlefield 3 (360, PS3, PC)** Electronic Arts
4. Assassin's Creed: Revelations (360, PS3, PC) Ubisoft - ~1.26 million
5. Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360) Ubisoft
6. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2)** Electronic Arts
7. Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (PS3)** Sony - 700k
8. Saints Row: The Third (360, PS3, PC)** THQ
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (WII) ** Nintendo
10. Batman: Arkham City (360, PS3, PC)** Warner Bros. Interactive

Big games this year.

Black Ops 2 should sell at least somewhat close to MW3 numbers. 8mil+
Halo 4 should handily outsell Skyrim. Halo 3 and Halo Reach managed around 4mil opening months and they launched September. Halo 4 is launching right in the middle of the holidays so I think 4.5mil+ is very possible, assuming it ends up selling about as well as Halo Reach.
Assassin's Creed III should be massive in America. I think it will sell 2mil+ first month considering all the hype and that it will have a full month of sales. (Coming out October 30th which NPD counts towards November)
Madden NFL 13 is tracking ahead of 12 according to EA, at least for now.
First holiday month for Just Dance 4, New Super Mario Bros 3ds, and Pokemon Black/White 2. Possible that they will each have near 1mil sales for november.
Wii U launch title sales could add a couple of million sales.
Need for Speed Most Wanted could repeat Hot Pursuit's strong performance and will have a full month of sales.
NBA 2k13 should have a very good November considering there is no lockout this year.
Hitmen Absolution, WWE 13, LittlebigPlanet Karting, Playstation All Stars, Paper Mario 3ds, Harvest Moon 3ds, Sports Champion 2 are all coming out November/Last day of October and should each sell between 100k-600k.
Resident Evil 6, Medal of Honor Warband, Forza Horizon, and Dance Central 3 could all potentially have decent second months.

So will November end the decline of software sales in America at least for a month? I personally think it will, but just barely.

Last year there were more "big" games that came out. But this year should have a much bigger number 2 and a lot more decent selling games, so I think software will be up YoY. Hardware is another story. I think the decline will continue even factoring in Wii U launch.

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superchunk on 28 September 2012

November NPD will be higher due to Wii U's launch and the games associated with that.

The year multiplats you have listed won't be much different than 2011 versions overall. So really its the the influx of new hardware that will supercharge the software sales.