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Forums - Politics Discussion - Europeon Debt Crisis: There isn't another option EXCEPT austerity.

SamuelRSmith said:
richardhutnik said:

All individuals in congress get elected based on what pork they bring back to their district.  This is true even for Dr. No, Ron Paul, who would earmark everything his distrct wanted.

The reality is that the GOP tends to run more on shrinking the size of the government.  The reality of this shrinking is that people will support smaller government support for everyone else, except themselves, and government controls on everyone they don't like, and less for themselves.  

What you do see, on the Democratic presidential side is periodically commissions being run by the president to see if they can cut waste.  Al Gore headed up one under Clinton.  It is just done, not campaigned on.

I'm going to guess that this is more of a continuation of my post, rather than a post against it?

Continuation in the sense I was speaking about how the GOP works normally.  GOP has little interest in cutting anything either, because of how congress works.  Shrinking government is a mantra they like to chant, which they really don't follow up on.  They are more interested in dropping bombs and getting into wars, than making actual cuts, as is seen with why Ron Paul gets stuck around 10% vote and has like no shot of getting the nomination, or even anyone who is like Ron Paul (see Gary Johnson).

Reality is people like their government, so long as it doesn't gets in their way and gives them goodies.  Politicians run on this and get elected.  So, I get back to a pragmatic reality that it isn't really ending up doable to shrink government.  And shrink government has aspects to it, and it is important ask how.  By shrinking government do you mean:

1. Reducing the number of rules on the books and making it simplier.

2. Reducing the amount of taxes the government takes in.

3. Reducing the amount of spending it does, and funding of areas of society.

4. Reducing the amount of people working in government.

5. Reducing the amount of enforcement of rules on the books.

6. Reducing the amount of rulesmaking made by unelected people in government.

This is not discussed, particularly around the GOP, when discussing what is meant by shrinking government.  It is more of a nebulous comment thrown out there that sounds cools and gets votes in the primaries.  But, when you get to specifics, say you cut anywhere, and you get an uproar, and it costs votes.  

Then, throw on top of this the role lawmakers make.  They end up passing more laws, and say they are really addressing problems.  In other words, they create more rules for the game to be played in, as if more rules are some sort of magic solution.  Then you may not get it funded correctly, or enforced properly either.  You will often here, in the more laws front, have industry groups writing the laws, the lawmakers don't read it, and pass it, because lobbyists tell them to do it.   I will say, as someone who creates games, and works with rules regularly to come up with systems that work from a gameplay standpoint, merely adding laws isn't a guarantee to anything, and the best games have less laws, but clear ones.

So, I would suggest anyone seriously interested in discussing shrinking government needs to discuss what they mean by this.  Government can be smaller in a lot of ways.  Doesn't mean all ways are the best answer though.  Also, one needs to study the impact cutting government involvement can have in areas.  There is no guarantee that removing government magically solves anything.



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Kasz216 said:

Lately there have been more and more articles in the US complaining about Europeon Austerity and how it will destroy the country.

It makes me wonder what other option there actually is.   The europeon Debt Crisis is happening because a number of countries didn't cut spending when they could and are rapidly approaching (or already reached) the point where they can't pay off their debts.

Some people are saying that instead they need to keep spending up, possibly even increase it and hope to outgrow the debt.

Which seems impossible just based on the fact that they weren't outgrowing their debt even when the economy was good.


The only real way to get out of it, is to try and spur growth while NOT increasing debt.  In otherwords, Austerity, and then a bit beyond normal austerity to provide pro-growth changes.


In otherwords cut more then you need to and put that extra money elsewhere.

By definition austerity cuts growth...

I'm not saying that governments should keep spending like crazy but any measure that reduce growth noticeably actually makes debt worse despite the reduce spending...

It's not difficult to do the maths...

 

Lets say country A deficit is 100% of GDP, it's running a deficit at 8% and 2% growth.

Next year the deficit will be 105.8% of GDP. So a deficit increase of roughly 6% of GDP.

 

Lets say country B deficit is 100% of GDP, it's running a deficit of 4% and negative 2% growth.

Next year the deficit will be 106.1% of GDP... Deficit increased a little more and due to the negative growth the amount of people needed social help actually increased in the country, making next year government finances look dire...

 

I'm not saying they shoudn't cut debt, but when you cut so far that it negatively affects growth it actually make things worse, which is what others countries have asked Greece and Spain to do.........

 

The new Deal is what got the US out of the Great Depression, not Austerity....



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Mr Khan said:
Kasz216 said:
I mean, actually the biggest problem the US faces right now is that the US companies have made some huge profits but aren't reinvesting that. While it's fun to just blame the big faceless corporations, a better question is... wh

Uncertanity to make a profit/uncertantity about costs of obama's healthcare plan/uncertanity of their tax rates.

Plenty of money is sitting out of the economy because of this.

To use a simple example. Say you own a shoe making company, and the government puts in a stimulus for shoes. Are you going to reinvest that money in your buisness, knowing that shoe demand is based soley on goverment spending that can't keep up for every, that soon you'll have to pay an indeterminate amount extra per employee, that your bank may have to keep more money on hand, therefore woudln't even give you a loan right now if you asked?

For the US, there is no real answer but time, for stuff like the Obama healthcare law to either go it's course and it's price be known, or for it to just disappear.

Really, that's the only answer for most financial problems but whatever. (With deficit spending only existing in times of trouble to provide for those in need, not companies that aren't going to reinvest until all the uncertainty is gone anyway.)

That's why the US "recovery" has essentially been a jobless one with little to no help to the average person.

Forcing a higher taxation rate on idle money could kick that around. I would argue for regulations that reward companies for growth and punish companies for providing executives with excessive pay-rises or simply sitting on huge warchests for so long. If the carrot of economic growth through spending because of companies' petty political concerns cannot be used, then the stick must be employed: spend the money well or i'll just take it from you and spend it how i want.

Personally I'm all for something being done to tax the cash companies are holding in foreign accounts...

As a shareholder of Apple and Google, that money actually does not benefit me, Apple,  Google and the others don't want to pay the tax so they don't bring the cash back and they can't put that cash to work or redistribute that cash to shareholders, it's a loose-loose situation and despite what all mighty Apple board says, it does not benefit me as an Apple shareholder........

 

They should change it back so that profits earned in foreign countries get taxed when they happen, not when the money is sent back so that i can get my hand on some of that money.

Besides huge companies sitting on huge pile cash rarely creates growth, it leads to costly merger-acquisitions on the end which most of the time end up destroying jobs and shareholder's money ( mercedex-chrysler, aol-time warner,....).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Kasz216 said:
routsounmanman said:
Kasz216 said:

Lately there have been more and more articles in the US complaining about Europeon Austerity and how it will destroy the country.

It makes me wonder what other option there actually is.   The europeon Debt Crisis is happening because a number of countries didn't cut spending when they could and are rapidly approaching (or already reached) the point where they can't pay off their debts.

Some people are saying that instead they need to keep spending up, possibly even increase it and hope to outgrow the debt.

Which seems impossible just based on the fact that they weren't outgrowing their debt even when the economy was good.


The only real way to get out of it, is to try and spur growth while NOT increasing debt.  In otherwords, Austerity, and then a bit beyond normal austerity to provide pro-growth changes.


In otherwords cut more then you need to and put that extra money elsewhere.

I really think that the Euro was the stupidest idea of the 21st century, Europe must leave it back and go back to national currency. And many countries drowning in debt is not just because of excessive spending, it's also due to the Euro strangling their economies.

While countries like Germany benefit greatly from the Euro as the other participating countries keep its value low and keeping their exports competitive, others like Greece, Spain, Portugal that have been relying on devaluing their currency to stay competitive, ended up choked, thus the debt bubble.

Another plan I can think of, is a Marshal plan to any country now in trouble, much like Germany and other countries got after WWII. But that's very doubtful with the current political scheme.

One thing's for sure, austerity brings recession, which in turn grows deficits and debt, a deadly spiral. Greece will never recover from the debt, even after a long due PSI, and after we fall, Portugal, Ireland and Spain will follow...

A) Greece was in a Death spiral before austerity.  Even when it was having growth, it's growth was growing faster.

B) Who's going to pay for this Marshal Plan?  Germany doesn't have the cash to bail out Greece, Italy, Spain, and likely even France.

A) Then why didn't the EU do something about it? It certainly could force our hand. And what do you think is the cause of this spiral? What was the spark that lit the Greek crisis? If the Euro's the cause as I think, shouldn't Greece leave the Eurozone?

B) I know it's not viable, and even if it was, nobody would do it. People in Europe are already angry about lending money to Greece, let alone give it away for free.

PS: Although not entirely correct, it has some good insights on what's going on here in Greece and other PIIGS" countries: http://9gag.com/gag/2681884



Ail said:
Kasz216 said:

Lately there have been more and more articles in the US complaining about Europeon Austerity and how it will destroy the country.

It makes me wonder what other option there actually is.   The europeon Debt Crisis is happening because a number of countries didn't cut spending when they could and are rapidly approaching (or already reached) the point where they can't pay off their debts.

Some people are saying that instead they need to keep spending up, possibly even increase it and hope to outgrow the debt.

Which seems impossible just based on the fact that they weren't outgrowing their debt even when the economy was good.


The only real way to get out of it, is to try and spur growth while NOT increasing debt.  In otherwords, Austerity, and then a bit beyond normal austerity to provide pro-growth changes.


In otherwords cut more then you need to and put that extra money elsewhere.

By definition austerity cuts growth...

I'm not saying that governments should keep spending like crazy but any measure that reduce growth noticeably actually makes debt worse despite the reduce spending...

It's not difficult to do the maths...

 

Lets say country A deficit is 100% of GDP, it's running a deficit at 8% and 2% growth.

Next year the deficit will be 105.8% of GDP. So a deficit increase of roughly 6% of GDP.

 

Lets say country B deficit is 100% of GDP, it's running a deficit of 4% and negative 2% growth.

Next year the deficit will be 106.1% of GDP... Deficit increased a little more and due to the negative growth the amount of people needed social help actually increased in the country, making next year government finances look dire...

 

I'm not saying they shoudn't cut debt, but when you cut so far that it negatively affects growth it actually make things worse, which is what others countries have asked Greece and Spain to do.........

 

The new Deal is what got the US out of the Great Depression, not Austerity....


A) That's only if you count government spending as growth through crude silly GDP calculations.   I mean, why don't we just spend 1000 trillion dollars a year over budget then?

If you really need a big overwhelming calcualation  C+I (X-M) would be better suited to be used for anything more then pure academic curiosity.

B) The New Deal did not get the US out of the Great Depression... practically no Economist believes that.  Not even modern Kenysians... they argue WW2 got us out of the war and WW2 should be counted as Government Stimulus since war greatly increases government spending.

That the new deal got us out of the Great Depression is roughly analagous to "Christopher Columus discovered the new world." 



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routsounmanman said:
Kasz216 said:
routsounmanman said:
Kasz216 said:

Lately there have been more and more articles in the US complaining about Europeon Austerity and how it will destroy the country.

It makes me wonder what other option there actually is.   The europeon Debt Crisis is happening because a number of countries didn't cut spending when they could and are rapidly approaching (or already reached) the point where they can't pay off their debts.

Some people are saying that instead they need to keep spending up, possibly even increase it and hope to outgrow the debt.

Which seems impossible just based on the fact that they weren't outgrowing their debt even when the economy was good.


The only real way to get out of it, is to try and spur growth while NOT increasing debt.  In otherwords, Austerity, and then a bit beyond normal austerity to provide pro-growth changes.


In otherwords cut more then you need to and put that extra money elsewhere.

I really think that the Euro was the stupidest idea of the 21st century, Europe must leave it back and go back to national currency. And many countries drowning in debt is not just because of excessive spending, it's also due to the Euro strangling their economies.

While countries like Germany benefit greatly from the Euro as the other participating countries keep its value low and keeping their exports competitive, others like Greece, Spain, Portugal that have been relying on devaluing their currency to stay competitive, ended up choked, thus the debt bubble.

Another plan I can think of, is a Marshal plan to any country now in trouble, much like Germany and other countries got after WWII. But that's very doubtful with the current political scheme.

One thing's for sure, austerity brings recession, which in turn grows deficits and debt, a deadly spiral. Greece will never recover from the debt, even after a long due PSI, and after we fall, Portugal, Ireland and Spain will follow...

A) Greece was in a Death spiral before austerity.  Even when it was having growth, it's growth was growing faster.

B) Who's going to pay for this Marshal Plan?  Germany doesn't have the cash to bail out Greece, Italy, Spain, and likely even France.

A) Then why didn't the EU do something about it? It certainly could force our hand. And what do you think is the cause of this spiral? What was the spark that lit the Greek crisis? If the Euro's the cause as I think, shouldn't Greece leave the Eurozone?

B) I know it's not viable, and even if it was, nobody would do it. People in Europe are already angry about lending money to Greece, let alone give it away for free.

PS: Although not entirely correct, it has some good insights on what's going on here in Greece and other PIIGS" countries: http://9gag.com/gag/2681884

A) The Euro wasn't the cause.  The cause was incompetant politcians who used shoddy book keeping to pretend they were following the fiscal rules set out by the EU.    Had the Greeks not kept in politicians who pretty much everybody knew was awful for so long, there would be no issue.

Well ok, there still would of been an issue, since Austerity would of been needed BEFORE the whole thing crashed but it would of been a LOT less painful.

The more you consume in the present, the less you can consume in the future because of interest.   Greece acted like a nation of children replacing instant gratification for long term gain.

 

B)  If it was viable, i'm sure somebody would do it, with some sort of restrictions.  Germany could technically bail out greece.... but then if Italy or Spain were to fall, well everyone would be fucked.



Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said:
or... they could just "forget" all the debt.


If I borrowed a few hundred pounds off you, what would you do if I just forgot to pay you back?


Well.... if I earn over 1 trillion euros a year. i wont be too bothered. 

Greece's debt is something like $500 billion. That's a lot more than £100, especially when the highest GDP in the entire world is only ~30 times that.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Ail said:

The new Deal is what got the US out of the Great Depression, not Austerity....


Not true. The depression didn't end until after World War II, when the US's Government spending was cut by 60%, and taxes by 30%.



Kasz216 said:
routsounmanman said:
Kasz216 said:
routsounmanman said:
Kasz216 said:

Lately there have been more and more articles in the US complaining about Europeon Austerity and how it will destroy the country.

It makes me wonder what other option there actually is.   The europeon Debt Crisis is happening because a number of countries didn't cut spending when they could and are rapidly approaching (or already reached) the point where they can't pay off their debts.

Some people are saying that instead they need to keep spending up, possibly even increase it and hope to outgrow the debt.

Which seems impossible just based on the fact that they weren't outgrowing their debt even when the economy was good.


The only real way to get out of it, is to try and spur growth while NOT increasing debt.  In otherwords, Austerity, and then a bit beyond normal austerity to provide pro-growth changes.


In otherwords cut more then you need to and put that extra money elsewhere.

I really think that the Euro was the stupidest idea of the 21st century, Europe must leave it back and go back to national currency. And many countries drowning in debt is not just because of excessive spending, it's also due to the Euro strangling their economies.

While countries like Germany benefit greatly from the Euro as the other participating countries keep its value low and keeping their exports competitive, others like Greece, Spain, Portugal that have been relying on devaluing their currency to stay competitive, ended up choked, thus the debt bubble.

Another plan I can think of, is a Marshal plan to any country now in trouble, much like Germany and other countries got after WWII. But that's very doubtful with the current political scheme.

One thing's for sure, austerity brings recession, which in turn grows deficits and debt, a deadly spiral. Greece will never recover from the debt, even after a long due PSI, and after we fall, Portugal, Ireland and Spain will follow...

A) Greece was in a Death spiral before austerity.  Even when it was having growth, it's growth was growing faster.

B) Who's going to pay for this Marshal Plan?  Germany doesn't have the cash to bail out Greece, Italy, Spain, and likely even France.

A) Then why didn't the EU do something about it? It certainly could force our hand. And what do you think is the cause of this spiral? What was the spark that lit the Greek crisis? If the Euro's the cause as I think, shouldn't Greece leave the Eurozone?

B) I know it's not viable, and even if it was, nobody would do it. People in Europe are already angry about lending money to Greece, let alone give it away for free.

PS: Although not entirely correct, it has some good insights on what's going on here in Greece and other PIIGS" countries: http://9gag.com/gag/2681884

A) The Euro wasn't the cause.  The cause was incompetant politcians who used shoddy book keeping to pretend they were following the fiscal rules set out by the EU.    Had the Greeks not kept in politicians who pretty much everybody knew was awful for so long, there would be no issue.

Well ok, there still would of been an issue, since Austerity would of been needed BEFORE the whole thing crashed but it would of been a LOT less painful.

The more you consume in the present, the less you can consume in the future because of interest.   Greece acted like a nation of children replacing instant gratification for long term gain.

 

B)  If it was viable, i'm sure somebody would do it, with some sort of restrictions.  Germany could technically bail out greece.... but then if Italy or Spain were to fall, well everyone would be fucked.

A) Completely agree with this one; Still, they are still on power, making matter even worse. And have you watched what the EU (Barozo, and others) "hint us" to vote for in the upcoming elections? The very same people that brought us to this mess!

Gallops here show that the 2 parties won't get more that 15% each, down from 45%! Yet, they have recently started talking about defaulting, chaos, even war if we don't vote them.

And lastly, don't forget what the latest memorandum bids us, as our corrupt politicians have signed it; any future government that rises, is forced to pass auterity measures or face default;again;in the land that gave birth to Democracy. It's sad, really...



richardhutnik said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Kasz216 said:

That's really the annoying part of the whole debate.  Democrats have shit they want to cut, they just for whatever reason aren't saying "hey lets cut this stuff."  Likely due to purely political motivations.

There are 3 reasons for this:

1) Many Democrats, including the President, simply do not believe/understand the financial crisis. If you're a suscribed Keynesian, which most politicians (on both sides of the isle) are, then, really, there is no argument for cuts.

2) Democrats, like all politicians, have one priority: getting re-elected, this usurps all other responsibilities. While Republicans, for the most part, are elected by those who favour smaller Government (although Republicans don't deliever on this promise, most voters don't look past the rhetoric), Democrats are not. This means that some Republicans will vote for cuts that they do not believe in (as pointed out in number 1), and some Democrats will vote against cuts that they do believe it.

3) Democrats and Republicans need to keep up an image of being different parties. They're not - on 90% of the policies, including all the most important, they are fundamentally the same . So they need to blow up that remaining 10% of difference to almost cartoonish levels. This means that the Republicans are the party of "cuts" (reducing the level of increase in the future...), and the Democrats are the party of "tax" (and with every new dollar collected in tax, a new loophole or subsidy put in...) - and they absolutely, 100%, can not stray from those positions.

I'm aware that you're probably away of these points, this post is more of a PSA, than anything else.

All individuals in congress get elected based on what pork they bring back to their district.  This is true even for Dr. No, Ron Paul, who would earmark everything his distrct wanted.

The reality is that the GOP tends to run more on shrinking the size of the government.  The reality of this shrinking is that people will support smaller government support for everyone else, except themselves, and government controls on everyone they don't like, and less for themselves.  

What you do see, on the Democratic presidential side is periodically commissions being run by the president to see if they can cut waste.  Al Gore headed up one under Clinton.  It is just done, not campaigned on.

You misunderstand earmarking.  Earmarking is not necessarily a bad thing.  If the money is not allocated for certain districts or projects, than the money all goes to the Executive branch who get to spend it.  So, in that situtation, you would actually want MORE earmarks, because it would mean those taxpayer funds are going back to the people rather than being used by the government.

And Ron Paul does earmark.  In fact, he wants everything to be earmarked, because that means states and local communities get the money instead of areas within the federal bureaucracy.  If Paul had his way, there would be nothing to earmark because there would be no money left over from basic government functions.  Taxes would be much lower, there wouldn't be an income tax, and what little revenue that came in would come from tolls and excises from usage fees and not from the IRS.  So, to suggest that Paul is no different than any other politician and just gets elected to bring money into his district is a gross distortion, and you do yourself a disservice by not looking further into it.