Should I take the interest in this thread as a demonstration of how much people care about Blu-Ray? :P

BluRay will sell decently within 2-3 years, I think. It might reach DVD levels one day, but I see that as a very far away and aloof possibility.
As soon as prices reach acceptable levels, both for players and movies, it should be able to compete.
The real strength of BluRay though, is it's appeal to PC users, and that's where it will shatter DVD's completely when prices lower I think.
Who could resist 200 GB's of storage space for 10$? I can't, when the time comes, that is...

NJ5,

"1- Competition from downloadable content (which may become more and more relevant in the coming years)"

this in the main point to focus
since, I believe, we are far to see the dl content being mainstreaming, I think the BR has a window where it can succeed

Over a timeframe I feel comfortable making a prediction (3 to 5 years) Blu-Ray will remain a luxury product ... The reason for this is that it took 6 to 7 years before DVD became the dominant format, until 2010 most households will not have HDTVs, and it will take years before people who have upgraded to HDTVs to see the benefit of Blu-Ray movies over standard DVDs.

The wildcard is digital downloads, which could be done on a limited scale in most major centers today and will (probably) be viable on a larger scale in these centers by 2010; I don't believe these would "Kill" Blu-Ray being that there will always be a market for physical discs, and many people do not live in an area where they could get access to internet that could handle these downloads.

It will be niche/luxury until these happen:
1. War with HD-DVD ends
2. Cost drops (will start to happen when it beats HD-DVD)
3. HDTVs common
While it is an excellent idea to get higher-quality discs that can hold more data, I'm fine with DVD. Maybe I'll get it when I buy a HDTV.

All good points, but it is in the industry's best interests to make you re-buy all your favourite films, so they will ensure it achieves significant market penetration eventually.

When prices of BD are as low as DVD, why wouldn't everyone jump on board? I didn't get on the DVD bandwagon until they became as cheap as VHS.

 Exactly.

Well, DVD's today are far cheaper than VHS ever was so it could take a very long time for Blu-Ray to become as inexpensive as DVD. On top of that people have to have the understanding that the quality of Blu-Ray is better and the equipment to see the difference. There is also a lot of benefits DVD has because of how common it is that will take years for Blu-Ray to match; people often ignore the value of being able to walk into your local videostore and being able to rent thousands of movies.

Basically, it just takes time for people to know/care about a new format and for it to offer the benefits people want. I personally think it is realistic to expect Blu-Ray to be a minor format until after 2011, and depending on how well downloads catch on it may not achieve the level of acceptance that DVD did.

Wish i could download 50Gb movies at 10Mbps it only takes 11 hours to get a 50Gb at that rate.
Problem is i cant in fact i only manage ~480Kbps so it would take me 200hours to get 50Gb and
so i think the Disk market is still going to continue untill everyone is getting ADSL2 or faster speeds, no boubt it's a huge potential market but there is plenty of life left in disc sales.

Also it's funny people spend more money leaving their computer running in electricity and ISP costs ,and storage costs to download a possibly bootleg movie which they can legitimatly hire or Buy for less money time and effort.
Also the legitimate version comes in full quality with a nice cover etc and knowing that at least some of their money spent may actually end up in producing a sequal as well.

Since the cost to manufacture-produce a blu-ray is only around 1-2(AUD) dollars and will drop rappidly this represents under 5% of the current sales price, and the shops seem to charge $10 extra for a blue ray (~$40) title vs DVD (~$30), i can easily see blu-ray disks being sold for under $5(AUD) apiece in a few years and still being profitable just like cheap DVD's are.

Image quality you get is awesome - you wont notice unless you have a 1080P display but i am now used to this level of quality. And dont mind paying a little more for it.
As people get used to Digital TV broadcasts in 1080 they will notice it more when they go back to standard definition DVD's so i think it's probably going to do fine , true wont eliminate DVD but i can see it taking half the new release DVD market within 4 years.

1080p is cinema quality( many movies are actually shot in 1080p or 2K format) , and significantly better image quality.than 480 or 576.

About downloading contents: the vast majority of people has access only to narrow band or little more, I've had ADSL for more than 4 years, the base top speed for entry level flat contracts has grown from 1 to 6 Mbps, but th quality of my line hasn't and I'm still at a real top speed that's between 1.6 and 2 Mbps and only downloading from my provider's servers, mail, news, etc. I can download low quality contents in an acceptable time, but full DVD quality is already quite slow and HD definitely out of question. And thi isn't going to change in the near future, as the ex italian monopolist, that still has the vast majority of the lines, as Mr. "Mortadella" Prodi privatized it in a way that can only be explained as idiot or criminal or both, is burdened by enormous debt, due to the bad  habit developed in the past, when the state fueled it with public money, so they are literally letting rot the lines.

So, like lots of people, if I'll become interested in HD, I'll probably have to buy physical media, not download.