Over a timeframe I feel comfortable making a prediction (3 to 5 years) Blu-Ray will remain a luxury product ... The reason for this is that it took 6 to 7 years before DVD became the dominant format, until 2010 most households will not have HDTVs, and it will take years before people who have upgraded to HDTVs to see the benefit of Blu-Ray movies over standard DVDs.
The wildcard is digital downloads, which could be done on a limited scale in most major centers today and will (probably) be viable on a larger scale in these centers by 2010; I don't believe these would "Kill" Blu-Ray being that there will always be a market for physical discs, and many people do not live in an area where they could get access to internet that could handle these downloads.
