I haven't read the entire thread yet (willl after this post) but there are a few things you would have to consider.

1. What would Nintendo have done if they didn't make Wii? Would they have made a system that competed with the big guys, powerwise? Or would they have opted out of consoles, stuck with the DS, and become a TP, consolewise? I personally would have bought a similar console from them, but I think it would end up seling worse than Gamecube (due to still-weak online support), while Xbox would do significantly better--I believe, out of people who only have a Wii this gen, 1/3 would get a 360, 1/4 would get a PS3, a few would buy this new console, and a good percentage wouldn't buy anything (the casuals they're targeting, for instance).

2. As for the market itself, it would absolutely be in decline. No company would be in the black, we wouldn't have made any progress in getting new people to play games, and the industry would just be stagnating in general. Nintendo has given devs the chance to make games where they don't need to make a significant risk (like spending $20 million on a game) in order to make some sort of profit. If they didn't make Wii, there is no way this could happen.

WOW!  That is a very interesting question that I never thought of--what would they do with their classic IPs, console-wise, if they only made handhelds?  Personally, I believe that they would be more inclined to sell them to MS, who would be more than happy to pay $250 million each for Mario and Zelda, $150 million for Metroid, etc.  The reason I say this is because they are looking for any way they can to increase their casual appeal, and having Mario in their stable would skyrocket their 'stats' in this area, and all the Nintendo fans who don't have a 360 right now would definitely be getting one.  I don't think the games would be as good, however--they would still be very fun, because they'd likely be developed by Rare, but they wouldn't have a Miyamoto level of quality.  Either that, or they themselves would still develop the games, but MS would have to pay them for each one.

Also, they wouldn't sell them to Sony, because they hate each other's guts.  The two companies have completely opposite views when it comes to gaming.  Sony likes to make expensive powerhouses, Ninty likes to make cheap funboxes.  Sony relies on TP support, whereas Nintendo lives on excellent first-party games.  I don't know what that has to do with anything, but they wouldn't sell their classic IPs to Sony--the two just have totally different outlooks on gaming.

WOW!  That is a very interesting question that I never thought of--what would they do with their classic IPs, console-wise, if they only made handhelds?  Personally, I believe that they would be more inclined to sell them to MS, who would be more than happy to pay $250 million each for Mario and Zelda, $150 million for Metroid, etc.  The reason I say this is because they are looking for any way they can to increase their casual appeal, and having Mario in their stable would skyrocket their 'stats' in this area, and all the Nintendo fans who don't have a 360 right now would definitely be getting one.  I don't think the games would be as good, however--they would still be very fun, because they'd likely be developed by Rare, but they wouldn't have a Miyamoto level of quality.  Either that, or they themselves would still develop the games, but MS would have to pay them for each one.

Also, they wouldn't sell them to Sony, because they hate each other's guts.  The two companies have completely opposite views when it comes to gaming.  Sony likes to make expensive powerhouses, Ninty likes to make cheap funboxes.  Sony relies on TP support, whereas Nintendo lives on excellent first-party games.  I don't know what that has to do with anything, but they wouldn't sell their classic IPs to Sony--the two just have totally different outlooks on gaming.

"all the Nintendo fans who don't have a 360 right now would definitely be getting one."

I wouldn't, for example. I would rather leave gaming rather than buy a Microsoft product.

I think what would 'happen' is that the games market would reduce by 10 million buyers who wouldn't switch from Nintendo, and Nintendo wouldn't sell their IP unless actually bankrupt anyway.

@Game_boy:

Sorry, I didn't mean it that way. What I meant was, there are a lot of people who would buy Mario or Zelda no matter what. Some wouldn't buy them if not made by Nintendo, but I think it's fair to say that it would definitely give MS a boost, saleswise.

And when I said 'sell their IPs', I meant that they would licencse them out to other companies to make console versions while they kept the handheld versions for themselves, or they would basically become a TP consolewise (developing and publishing the games themselves, for someone else's console).


God I hope none of this ever happens, though.

 Yes, that sounds likely to me (not that Nintendo will ever be in that position).

I was planning on giving up videogames in 2005. The 360 launched, and I was less than impressed. I knew games would get better, but the excitement just wasn't there for me anymore.

Anticipation for the Wii kept me around. Unable to find a Wii, or a PS3, I eventually bought a 360 (at the time, Gears of War hype was unavoidable). Turns out, the 360 was a great purchase. With Zelda on the 'Cube, I didn't really want a Wii anymore. When the 360 lost it's luster, Wii fever came back. I got a Wii. If the Wii wasn't out, I probably wouldn't be gaming anymore.

if wii didn't exist, i wouldn't have bought a new console

i don't have as much time for games anymore and console gaming had taken a huge back burner to other things in my life

i still don't get to play as much as i'd like, but i love my time with my wii

i'm not even sure i woulda bought the n256 if they had come out with an hd system with normal controls

my interest in gaming had just waned over recent years but the motion controls brought me back

If Sony nevere entered the console business, what would the market look like?

This is kind of an obsolete thread. It's like asking "What if there never had been a Playstation".. :p