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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 - Reclaiming number one in 08/09'

Erik Aston said:

SNES/Genesis... Although its looked at as this great glory period and is even seemingly considered the paradigm of console wars... In fact, that was a rare case where both companies involved blew it.

SEGA was trying to get their own Mario... They finally got Sonic a few years into Genesis' cycle... But this was not a smart move... It proved impossible for them to establish multiple mega-franchises in the face of Nintendo's franchises... They played Nintendo's game, and lost. It was somewhat smart to go after an older audience than Nintendo... They correctly thought that if they could get the young teens, that the younger kids would want what the older kids were playing... But this was too little of a differentiation.

And it was the last smart move SEGA made... They started this big back-and-forth "console war" with Nintendo, that was destructive for both companies. Once they started releasing weird attachments for their console, it was over... And it didn't help that they just didn't manage their money well...

SNES... A case of poor timing... 3D and CD were ready in 1993 or 94 if Nintendo had been willing to ride out NES, which was still dominating Genesis... Instead, Nintendo thought they had to compete with system power, and they followed SEGA right after that same teen audience with their marketing... Essentially two companies fighting over the same pie, which used to belong to one company. Nintendo ended up with a 60% share of the WW market, but their profits diminished greatly, despite Game Boy. A winning console, caught in an awkward middle ground in-between where technology dictated the generational change should belong... Owning merely the 91-94 timeframe before PlayStation came out...

 

Hard fought console wars are destructive to the industry... We just went through 2 straight generations where 2 companies made tons of cash... Sony got an early lead, and after losing, Nintendo was smart enough to focus on handhelds... And on the bottom line... Both companies made healthy profits, with different niches... Leading up to this console war, there was more hype about MS vs. Sony than there ever was about Sony vs. Ninty... And people should have known this was a bad sign... Its no surprise that both Sony and MS are burning billions now...

I mean, people should realize that its destructive when we use the term "war" to describe it...

 

Long and short... Yeah, PS3 is dead in the water..

 

About the 3d and CD being ready in 1993 or 1994, Nintendo didnt put CD in their system in 1996 why do you think they would in 1994?



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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Wii Spiderman 3 is NOT the same game.

The game I want most is White Knight Story. 



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

I think you've gotta look at it a couple ways:
The PS3 is steadily increasing, whereas the 360 has been a little stagnant the past couple months. Will it even out with the 360 as better PS3 games come out? Maybe...
The Wii is also steadily increasing, and will probably (in my opinion) outsell both the PS3 and 360 in the long run. Microsoft will continue to make money from their Live service, and Sony will make money from Blu-ray sales. But in the next few years, will they actually break even, and start making a profit? I guess that's the real question.
Nintendo started developing the Wii right after they released the gamecube. Have Microsoft and Sony already started looking into the future? Will they try to out-innovate Nintendo for their next console? Virtual Reality? Motion Sensing? Or will Sony just try to push Blu-ray and Microsoft pushes their Live service? We know that they are atleast researching their next console right now, or major add-ons for their current consoles.
In the past, when sony had tons of profit on the line (betamax, memory sticks) they have failed. Will they fail again, or have they learned their lesson?
Keep in mind that Nintendo has been profitable for the past 30 years, with only a few exceptions. Since about 2003 their profits have gone up and up. They made a 1.0 billion dollars profit this fiscal year (march 06 to march 07). That's like, alot of money (1,000,000,000 dollars). Sony loses $200 per console, and they've sold 3.5 million so far. 200 times 3.5 million = 700 million in Losses. Since they get $2-3 per Blu-ray sale in licensing, they need to sell 233 million blu-ray movies to break even so far. Of course that doesn't take into account game sales, or the Sony movie publishing branch, which probably gets a bigger chunk of profit.
This is all based on fuzzy math, but Sony seems to be digging themselves into a hole that only Blu-ray can get them out of.


Kwaad said:

Wii Spiderman 3 is NOT the same game.

The game I want most is White Knight Story.


 According to the developers, is very close to the other versions. The difference is control and graphics.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Kwaad said:

 

The game I want most is White Knight Story.


 i just want more info on the damn thing.



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The only possibility for PS3 to reclaim number one in 08/09 is price cut by this year (at least down to the level of Xbox360) and sell it as a cheapest Blu-ray player !

 

 



z64dan said:
I think you've gotta look at it a couple ways:
The PS3 is steadily increasing, whereas the 360 has been a little stagnant the past couple months. Will it even out with the 360 as better PS3 games come out? Maybe...
The Wii is also steadily increasing, and will probably (in my opinion) outsell both the PS3 and 360 in the long run. Microsoft will continue to make money from their Live service, and Sony will make money from Blu-ray sales. But in the next few years, will they actually break even, and start making a profit? I guess that's the real question.
Nintendo started developing the Wii right after they released the gamecube. Have Microsoft and Sony already started looking into the future? Will they try to out-innovate Nintendo for their next console? Virtual Reality? Motion Sensing? Or will Sony just try to push Blu-ray and Microsoft pushes their Live service? We know that they are atleast researching their next console right now, or major add-ons for their current consoles.
In the past, when sony had tons of profit on the line (betamax, memory sticks) they have failed. Will they fail again, or have they learned their lesson?
Keep in mind that Nintendo has been profitable for the past 30 years, with only a few exceptions. Since about 2003 their profits have gone up and up. They made a 1.0 billion dollars profit this fiscal year (march 06 to march 07). That's like, alot of money (1,000,000,000 dollars). Sony loses $200 per console, and they've sold 3.5 million so far. 200 times 3.5 million = 700 million in Losses. Since they get $2-3 per Blu-ray sale in licensing, they need to sell 233 million blu-ray movies to break even so far. Of course that doesn't take into account game sales, or the Sony movie publishing branch, which probably gets a bigger chunk of profit.
This is all based on fuzzy math, but Sony seems to be digging themselves into a hole that only Blu-ray can get them out of.

PS3 sales steadily increasing?  I'm not sure you're looking at the same numbers i am but PS3 sales are down to 15k in Japan per week.  in America the latest we know is in Feb it sold 133,750.  In Europe we know the sales are going down fast, but we have yet to see where they will settle down at. 

360 sales may not be strong in other territories but it still nearly doubled PS3 in North America in February.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Hus said:
DoesWhatNintenDont said:


I just really wanted to underline the fact that no console has ever fallen to last place, to rise like a phoenix and take over as number one.


Thing is Ps3 is not last.


 -Hus-

            Bro, you're good for a laugh. XD

 



"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )

PSN ID: DeviantPathways

Wii Number: 0081 3044 1559 2355

 

My view is this.

Too many variables still to know for sure, but.

ps2 became strong when it hit the 200$ price point,  So the ps3 will also when it hits 300$.  Until then it will not gain on the wii.  Basically due to the price point in the lifespan of the blue ray, they have delayed the 300$ price point by 2 years.  So it will be at 300$ approx 2 years later than the ps2 was at 200$.  

 360 is designed after the gamecube - at least component pricing wise, thus it can lower in cost at the same rate as the gamecube did.  This will prove to fend off ps3 price decreases until the ps3 hits 300$, in approx 3-4 years.

Exclisives will slide to the 360 and wii due to supply base and developer profitibility, until ps3 picks up steam.  Mabey end of 2008 will the ps3 match the 360.

 

Wii will replace the ps2's base and get as many or more excusives as the ps2 had due to its userbase, you can have awesome exclusives with the only downside being the graphics which not enough of the gaming population have the hardware to matter on HD yet.

When ps3 hits 300$ HD TV's may have penetrated 40-50% of homes and thus become viable enough to take over as people's main console.

 Main consoles are determined by what people can afford and by how many AAA titles are made for it.  More will be made for a console with cheaper costs and a greater userbase = higher profits.

Wii will 2 to 1 the 360 and ps3 until the 360 is 300$ for the premium, 200$ core, and 360 will match WII in sales when it is only 50$ more than the discounted wii (150$ vs 200$) approx.

ps3 will take probably 2-3 years (6-7 total to possibly catch the wii)  assuming it has a 100$ drop per year for 3 years.  If it does not, it will never catch the wii because the wii will hit ps1/ps2 level of sales.  All it needs is greater production, and AAA titles.    Graphics hinder AAA titles, not enhance them.   Higher costs = less AAA titles.   Gameplay beats graphics, all WII needs is AAA gameplay and the rest will fall into place.  Thus ps3 needs 300$ price point before it can compete.  

Everyone knows the ps3 is better hardware, just no one cares about hardware until its reasonable.

Price point and AAA titles are all that matter,   Price 1st,  AAA titles 2nd.  

All the upcoming ps3 games,  Fine, million system sellers, but its not cummulitave million system sellers. 

Alot of the million will be sharing the same million with the other games.   After the 1st Million system seller hits, the rest will sell 100k worldwide tops.  Everyone else will wait for the next price drop.

I personally hope the ps3 drops to 300$, as I predict, this will ensure we get games AAA's that use the superior hardware.  But that wont be for a few years.  hardware max never happens till approx year 3 of a system. 



Hus said:
Kwaad said:

 

The game I want most is White Knight Story.


i just want more info on the damn thing.


 I dont really care. It looks like a good RPG. And I like the art on it.



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!