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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can pkmn black and white reach 20 million?

MrT-Tar on 08 August 2010
morenoingrato said:
Smeags said:
morenoingrato said:
Smeags said:

Well, what's interesting is that this game will be somewhat of a launch title for the 3DS. While still being a traditional DS game, it is releasing pretty close to where the 3DS is estimated to launch as well. So I imagine that there will be plenty of people with a 3DS, and Pokemon Black/White playing on it (smart move with backwards compatibility).

So despite DS being in the twilight of its career, Pokemon Black/White is shaping up to be a monster of sales.

looking at ds sales it's a strange definition of "twilight of its carrer"

but it is true


I know, I was really careful about choosing the right words for it, because the handheld is still selling more units than any other piece of hardware. Simply incredible!

Still, this E3 showed us that it's 3DS' time to shine. Other than Super Scribblenauts, Sonic Colors, and Pokmeon Black/White... there's not too much out there.

pokemon is a huge deal, super scrribblenauts and sonic are also strong.

Don't forget about proffesot layton, which is a million seller too

and Golden Sun, probably a million seller




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restored_lost on 08 August 2010


"even a dead god still dreams"

 

spooky96 on 24 March 2011

the game would hardly reach 17M , pokemon B/W won't outsell D/P.



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Gojimaster on 24 March 2011
Smeags said:
morenoingrato said:

looking at ds sales it's a strange definition of "twilight of its carrer"

but it is true


I know, I was really careful about choosing the right words for it, because the handheld is still selling more units than any other piece of hardware. Simply incredible!

Still, this E3 showed us that it's 3DS' time to shine. Other than Super Scribblenauts, Sonic Colors, and Pokmeon Black/White... there's not too much out there.


What?  The DS has been having a lot of great releases in the last 6 months in addition to what you said:  Radiant Historia, Golden Sun Dark Dawn, Ghost Trick, Dragon Quest VI, Okamiden, 999, Etrian Odyssey III, and a whole bunch of other games that will release in 2011 such as new Ace Attorney and Professor Layton games. 



 

Most anticipated games of 2011:

Uncharted 3,Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rocksmith

Modern Warfare 3, Super Mario 3D

 

Pineapple on 24 March 2011

I'm not quite sure. It doesn't look be to be showing amazing legs in EMEAA. It seems likely that it won't sell as much as D/P there. In fact, it shouldn't get anywhere close.

EMEAA sales:

Diamond/Pearl:
Week 1: 483k
Week 2: 342k (29% dropoff)
Week 3: 236k  (31% dropoff)

Black/White:
Week 1: 742k 
Week 2: 408k (45% dropoff)
Week 3: 226k  (45% dropoff)

That alone doesn't look too good. It would be hinting at similar sales to Diamond/Pearl, perhaps a tad lower. However, add in this.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 1658k in its first 10 weeks in EMEAA. It will a bit shy of 3 million lifetime. 
Diamond/Pearl sold 1852k in its first 10 weeks. It sold 5 million lifetime.

Diamond/Pearl sold a lot more than Heart Gold/Soul Silver simply because it was out so long as the only DS Pokemon. Black/White doesn't have that advantage, nor did Heart Gold/Soul Silver.

I'd say around 4 million in EMEAa is a fair guess for Black/White. 3.5-4.5 million.

 

It's also not going to outsell Diamond/Pearl's sales in Japan. Diamond/Pearl sold 6 million in Japan, Black and White is at 5.2 million, but has only sold 150k so far this year. It's going to end somewhere around 6 million there too, probably a bit shy of it, unless a bundle of some short spikes it up.

So, in order for Black/White to sell 20 million, it would need to sell 10 million in Americas. That's not going to happen. There's virtually no chance of Black and White selling 20 million.  

Estimating Americas isn't really possible at the current moment, with just one week of data. It's going to have to be above 770k for me to think Black/White has a chance of outselling Diamond/Pearl.  



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arcane_chaos on 26 March 2011
MrT-Tar said:
morenoingrato said:
Smeags said:
morenoingrato said:
Smeags said:

Well, what's interesting is that this game will be somewhat of a launch title for the 3DS. While still being a traditional DS game, it is releasing pretty close to where the 3DS is estimated to launch as well. So I imagine that there will be plenty of people with a 3DS, and Pokemon Black/White playing on it (smart move with backwards compatibility).

So despite DS being in the twilight of its career, Pokemon Black/White is shaping up to be a monster of sales.

looking at ds sales it's a strange definition of "twilight of its carrer"

but it is true


I know, I was really careful about choosing the right words for it, because the handheld is still selling more units than any other piece of hardware. Simply incredible!

Still, this E3 showed us that it's 3DS' time to shine. Other than Super Scribblenauts, Sonic Colors, and Pokmeon Black/White... there's not too much out there.

pokemon is a huge deal, super scrribblenauts and sonic are also strong.

Don't forget about proffesot layton, which is a million seller too

and Golden Sun, probably a million seller

yes!!! it's good to know someone else has faith in GS:DD reaching 1 million!!!!!



menx64 on 26 March 2011

yes, 15-20 million is really likely IMO...



Menx64

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SpartenOmega117 on 26 March 2011

i think it will. great DS game on top of a great 3ds launch game. Plus nintendo is advertising it like crazy here. I think it will reach more than 10 million lifetime in U.S.



ArcticGabe on 26 March 2011

no, but with grey might be