I'm not quite sure. It doesn't look be to be showing amazing legs in EMEAA. It seems likely that it won't sell as much as D/P there. In fact, it shouldn't get anywhere close.
EMEAA sales:
Diamond/Pearl:
Week 1: 483k
Week 2: 342k (29% dropoff)
Week 3: 236k (31% dropoff)
Black/White:
Week 1: 742k
Week 2: 408k (45% dropoff)
Week 3: 226k (45% dropoff)
That alone doesn't look too good. It would be hinting at similar sales to Diamond/Pearl, perhaps a tad lower. However, add in this.
Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 1658k in its first 10 weeks in EMEAA. It will a bit shy of 3 million lifetime.
Diamond/Pearl sold 1852k in its first 10 weeks. It sold 5 million lifetime.
Diamond/Pearl sold a lot more than Heart Gold/Soul Silver simply because it was out so long as the only DS Pokemon. Black/White doesn't have that advantage, nor did Heart Gold/Soul Silver.
I'd say around 4 million in EMEAa is a fair guess for Black/White. 3.5-4.5 million.
It's also not going to outsell Diamond/Pearl's sales in Japan. Diamond/Pearl sold 6 million in Japan, Black and White is at 5.2 million, but has only sold 150k so far this year. It's going to end somewhere around 6 million there too, probably a bit shy of it, unless a bundle of some short spikes it up.
So, in order for Black/White to sell 20 million, it would need to sell 10 million in Americas. That's not going to happen. There's virtually no chance of Black and White selling 20 million.
Estimating Americas isn't really possible at the current moment, with just one week of data. It's going to have to be above 770k for me to think Black/White has a chance of outselling Diamond/Pearl.
