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Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

placidcasual on 27 May 2010

Honest question.With a 4.99 m difference what do people think the difference in consoles actually working is?



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supercat on 27 May 2010
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.


But now we have new developments which make a 10-year plan look quite attractive:

 

-slowdown of die reductions, moore's law is coming to a close, fast, and soon the die reductions won't be that much of a deal.  With chips staying the same size and not shrinking much, there is little need to move onto something more powerful. 

 

-The Ps2 had a 10-year cycle.

 

Your thoughts are brilliant, tell us more.



makingmusic476 on 27 May 2010
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.

We've also never seen a third place console that is likely to top 50 million when all is said and done.  Combine that with the idea that this generation will last a bit longer than usual (with new consoles not hitting til 2012-2013), and I could see the ps3 legging it out another three years on top of that.

I think the ps3 will end up being supported for pretty close to ten years, but for entirely different reasons than initially planned by Sony.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 27 May 2010
Reasonable said:
Snake612 said:
It really depends on where the hardware sales are compared to 360's hardware sales.

I admire your caution!


same respect!



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theprof00 on 27 May 2010
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:

By the numbers, PS3 was behind the 360 by 5 million units as of last week (using these numbers too becuase they are easier :P). Here is the break down of how many more they would have to sell a week to beat the 360.

Years # sold per week (over 360 sales)
1 96,153.87
2 48,076.92
3 32,051.28
4 24,038.46
5

19,230.76

As you can see, it would have to sell a lot more then it usually does to pull these. It's doable I guess, but the system are usually so close that it would take 3-5 years to do this not including if the 360 beats the PS3 on any week. This is all based on the assumption that PS3 outsells the 360 every week for x number of years.

not counting the 1.3M ps3 outsold 360 last xmas.

were ps3 to do the same this year, which it is trending towards,

it would take

1 year : 66k per week

2 year : 33k per week

3 year : 22k per week

 

The most sony can ask for is a +2M gap close this christmas, taking the lead by xmas 2011, during which they will have both reached 60M or whatever.

 

Last year, the system has a good price drop and a new model. I doubt it will be the same as this year, esspecially as we are seeing decling sales. Where did you get those numbers though?

We are seeing a decline in both consoles sales, but 360 is dropping faster to the point where, despite the drop from last years xmas, it will still be that gap. Additionally, Sony increased its projections to 15M, whereas 360s was around 10M + extra three months IIRC.

I used the last ten weeks of sales to determine the gap.

The numbers you gave are incorrect. If it sells 66k over the 360 for a year, then it would be at 3,432,000. If you were to include the Christmas season (which we'll say is 6 weeks out of the year) , then it would need to sell 1,964,000 at Chrismas(5,000,000-3,036,000). I think your numbers are a little low.

Two assumptions people are making that I think are incorrect

  • That the PS3 will sell with the same numbers or higher next Christmas. Last Christmas, the system had a price cut and a new model. Sales should have been up. It is most likely going to go down.
  • GT5 will be a system seller. As far as I have seen, there have been no system sellers on the PS3 (there was a study posted here on VGChartz about it, check out the news section). It's doubtful this game will boost hardware sales, or at least not the numbers some people are saying.

ah you're right, I divided by the wrong number..but in the bigger scope, I stand by my statement that it will be xmas 2011 at the earliest.



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Kasz216 on 27 May 2010
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.

Intellevision?



Smashchu2 on 27 May 2010
supercat said:
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.


But now we have new developments which make a 10-year plan look quite attractive:

 

-slowdown of die reductions, moore's law is coming to a close, fast, and soon the die reductions won't be that much of a deal.  With chips staying the same size and not shrinking much, there is little need to move onto something more powerful. 

 

-The Ps2 had a 10-year cycle.

 

Your thoughts are brilliant, tell us more.

I think you misunderstand sales here.

The 10 year life cycle that Sony talks about is marketing smoke and mirrors. They said that becuase they thought that demand would be so high that the system would last 10 years and they were prepaired for that. The other two systems lasted 10 years because they were in high demand and still had games come out for them, but even then, they sold at very low ammounts and were drawfed by their newer versions. The PS3 can not have a 10 year life cycle becuase they system isn't selling well enough now. Consoles are a momentum based market, meaning they are defined early on. Sony has not got the steam to keep the system appealing for 10 years.

Rule #1 of business. The customer runs your business. A 10 year life cycle is only possible if customers buy your system for 10 years. The systems that will have a 10 year life cycle are the Wii and the DS.



kowhoho on 27 May 2010

What does it matter if this generation ends before the PS3 gets to 2nd? People aren't concerned with how much the PS2 sold as of the end of ITS generation, but with it's lifetime sales. Why should the competition between the 360 and the PS3 be observed through this lens if nothing else is?

It will overtake the 360, with time.



I survived the Apocalyps3

joeorc on 28 May 2010
Smashchu2 said:
supercat said:
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.


But now we have new developments which make a 10-year plan look quite attractive:

 

-slowdown of die reductions, moore's law is coming to a close, fast, and soon the die reductions won't be that much of a deal.  With chips staying the same size and not shrinking much, there is little need to move onto something more powerful. 

 

-The Ps2 had a 10-year cycle.

 

Your thoughts are brilliant, tell us more.

I think you misunderstand sales here.

The 10 year life cycle that Sony talks about is marketing smoke and mirrors. They said that becuase they thought that demand would be so high that the system would last 10 years and they were prepaired for that. The other two systems lasted 10 years because they were in high demand and still had games come out for them, but even then, they sold at very low ammounts and were drawfed by their newer versions. The PS3 can not have a 10 year life cycle becuase they system isn't selling well enough now. Consoles are a momentum based market, meaning they are defined early on. Sony has not got the steam to keep the system appealing for 10 years.

Rule #1 of business. The customer runs your business. A 10 year life cycle is only possible if customers buy your system for 10 years. The systems that will have a 10 year life cycle are the Wii and the DS.

how has PS3 not been in demand?

except when the price was very high!

the key has been and alway's was the price!, it was just too d@mn high for people, and now that the price has dropped the demand is still high for the system,and yet there is people on forums that like to post that still say i am not going to buy one until it hit's $200.00 or less, like that's some kind of negative you seem to be trying to make it out that the demand is not anywhere it should be.I do not think that is the Case at all since the PS3 is not even at the $200.00 price point or less.

for one Sony support's their product's far longer on the market than many other companies have showed to drop the production of the product.

I think your trying to say that right now that the PS3 is not in high demand.Which you may have people that will disagree with you but I do not agree with that at all. the consumer has buying power only to the product's that the company's that create the product's after the companies release the product. If the product was not released in the first place the Consumer cannot purchase the product anyway.

Yes consumer's can make or break a product after it get's released, but also if the company keep's the product on the shelf, if they want to keep spending the Money to do so they can, it's not wise to do it but they can.

 

already the xbox360 and the Wii have hit that Price point of $200.00 or less

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

supercat on 28 May 2010
Smashchu2 said:
supercat said:
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.


But now we have new developments which make a 10-year plan look quite attractive:

 

-slowdown of die reductions, moore's law is coming to a close, fast, and soon the die reductions won't be that much of a deal.  With chips staying the same size and not shrinking much, there is little need to move onto something more powerful. 

 

-The Ps2 had a 10-year cycle.

 

Your thoughts are brilliant, tell us more.

I think you misunderstand sales here.

The 10 year life cycle that Sony talks about is marketing smoke and mirrors. They said that becuase they thought that demand would be so high that the system would last 10 years and they were prepaired for that. The other two systems lasted 10 years because they were in high demand and still had games come out for them, but even then, they sold at very low ammounts and were drawfed by their newer versions. The PS3 can not have a 10 year life cycle becuase they system isn't selling well enough now. Consoles are a momentum based market, meaning they are defined early on. Sony has not got the steam to keep the system appealing for 10 years.

Rule #1 of business. The customer runs your business. A 10 year life cycle is only possible if customers buy your system for 10 years. The systems that will have a 10 year life cycle are the Wii and the DS.

 

If it really matters I think that the 360 will be passed up and place third by sometime next year, but that the 360 will also be around 10 years.  If you want to make the point that the 10 year plan is all PR, great and I have to agree but it is also true.  So I guess it depends on which way you look at it.