When Android starts seriously selling software, people will talk about how some folks would rather buy Android games than DS games. Besides volume of sales, the other difference between Android and iPhone is that Android allows emulators, and they're some of the top performers on the platform.

I think we'll start talking about Android/iPhone taking a bite out of handhelds when the 3DS launches, and it doesn't sell as well as some would hope.

2-3 years from now, the focus will all be on mobiles and not on the 3DS/PSP2. It makes little sense to develop on these platforms, as a top-tier game on a mobile will make a lot more money, and cost quite a bit less...And has a better long-tail for sales.

A great example would be Robo Defense for Android. Its been the #1 game on Android since it debuted last May. Not only has it stayed at #1, the per-month sales of the game has actually increased 2 or 3 fold since it debuted...So sales for a year-old game are still increasing. Not bad for a game that probably cost one or two developers a few months of time to make.

Well, you're right - I'm a verizon customer, and in the interests of staying on the best network, a droid phones are a clear winner...

Apple used to be open minded?? I'm only 27, I'm apparently not old enough to have seen that.

3DS won't fail, probably will sell worse than DS (DS is a monster, plus 3DS will be sold in a market with more competition) but will be succesfull as any other Nintendo platform. The DS is selling crazy even with Android and iPhone, this shows there's still room for hanhelds, especially in japan. Anyway I would say that Nintendo should start thinking to enter in the phone market, maybe with Android like a partner...that would guarantee life for many years, and many new customers too.

Well based on the sheer amount of Android OS phones apple selling 21% to 28% is pretty damn impressive considering the BOGO on so many of them and the network limitations you speak to. So im not sure how many people are "rebuying" Iphone models in Q1 as another poster mentioned for the inflated Iphone sales numbers, but i sure as shit would be "upgrading" now to a 3gs after the leak of the 4G and the imminent OS4 coming this summer.

If/When Apple branches out it will quite literally crush the Android ratio. Android OS is to the PSP and the Iphone is to the DS. Everyone knows what theyre getting with an Iphone. It works, works well and people love it. The Droid OS is so continuously evolving its not clear to most people which phones have it, how it works and what it is and does.

Once OS4 drops this summer, and the imminent Verizon Iphone and possible Sprint Iphone announcement its going to get ugly for smartphones i do believe.

Apple and th eIphone have been handcuffed by the ATT deal, theyve still dominated, once thats gone its going to be gross.

AT&T resigned a deal with Apple, exclusivity has been extended.

It is a big "if/when" talking about the iPhone branching out to other networks. From my understanding, Apple and AT&T signed a 5-year exclusivity agreement. If this is the case, they are in year 3 of the contract, meaning that they may branch out in 2012. By then, I would imagine that Android will grow even stronger, hampering the supposed impact of the iPhone finally branching out.

The main achilles heel of the iPhone is form factors. No matter what happens, an iPhone will always be an iPhone. Apple will never fragment their phone base by adding in a lot of other things. This is good on one hand, as it is a very closed environment for developers and phone sales. On the other, many people dislike texting on a virtual keyboard - something Apple has stood steadfast on. If you look at top phone sales on a monthly or yearly basis, the iPhone is no where near the top. For example, the Razr line has sold almost twice as many phones in a similar timeframe, and the EnV series has done remarkably well, too. Those are two form factors (flip and hinge) that the iPhone will never, ever have.

That is really the caveat of all caveats with the iPhone, much like Apple and other computers of the 80s vs. Microsoft OS-based PCs in the 80s and 90s. One model is very stoic, albiet very good, and the other is very diverse allowing anyone to build off of it. Argue as you will, featurephones and dumbphones make up a massive portion of the market. As these phones become better, and turn into smartphones, they won't run iTunes. Ever. Simply because Apple is running the whole show for good and bad.

5 years from now, Apple will be facing a weakning market share due to the huge handset pool of other handsets that leverage application stores and OSes like Android. iPhones are great, I get that, but not every AT&T customer owns one. For that very reason, there is a maximum feasible limit on people that are willing to pay for an iPhone, all the while they may prefer to buy other phones that suit their mobile style better.

I don't mean 'fail' in the way of a Saturn or PSP-Go style failure. I mean failure relative to the DS. I expect the 3DS to sell worse than the DS by decent margins - maybe 60-70 million units during its lifetime.

The whole thing about the debate between Smartphones and handhelds is that smartphones as a gaming platform is still a very new concept. The two major gaming platforms for mobile are Android and the iPhone, while the reality is that RIM, Symbian and WinMo control about 75% of the smartphone market share, and all of them are pretty crappy gaming platforms (in terms of breadth of catalogue and centralized OS install base). The thing is, there were more smartphones sold last year than Nintendo DS's sold. Ever. This year, there will be more smartphones sold than PSP and DS lifetime sales, combined. When these phones begin to have better centralized market places (the 75% I mentioned), the sales will be massive. Ungodly. Huge. That is when smart phones really compete with the DS and other handhelds, because nearly everyone has a cell phone. What happens when every cellphone is as good as a current DS, if not better?

I've been stating this for over a year, and so far, I've been right about the growth of the market. If your interested in 'my' timeline for the phone/handheld war, here is how I see it:

• 2010. 3DS launches to very strong sales. Smartphones ship ~225m units during 2010. iPhone and Android continue to absorb market share from WinMo and Symbian. RIM begins to put App World with each BlackBerry device, making it a decent platform for game distribution. $1 billion in iTunes/iPad gaming revenue. $125m in other centralized app sales (Android/WinMo/BB App World/Ovi)
• 2011. PSP2 maybe launches. 3DS sales don't materialize into sales as strong as invisioned. DS looks to be blamed. 275-300m smartphones sold during year. Featurephones and dumbphones become smarter, as Android becomes the #1 smartphone OS in world, responsible for approximately 30-40% of new installs during year. iTunes gaming hits $1.5b in revenue for year. $750m in other centralized app sales (Android/WinMo/BB App World/Ovi). Featurephones begin to have centralized OSes like Android
• 2012. 3DS and PSP2 see respectable sales, but neither looks to be as strong as their predicessors. Analysts begin to look to mobiles as the reason for the drop. All major gaming companies consider iTunes/Android as equals to the 3DS and PSP2. Smartphones break 400m units sold during year, as they are nearly 50% of all cell phones sold. Dumbphones begin to have centralized OSes like Android. Lines between smartphones and other phones begin to fade. Gaming on smartphones grows to $2b on iTunes, $2.5b on other OSes.
• 2013. Mobile gaming truly begins to surpass handheld gaming. Developers begin to launch exclusive AAA titles on mobiles, and certain OSes begin to acquire rights to exclusives ala the Nintendo-Sony wars of the 90s and MS-Sony-Nintendo wars of last-gen. Mobile gaming breaks $8b on smartphones as smartphones consist of 75% of all sales. PSP2 chokes. Sony moves mobile gaming to smartphones, due to its extensive lineup of smartphones.
• 2014. Nintendo changes strategies on next handheld iteration. Mobile gaming comprises a significant amount of all portable gaming, as Nintendo begins channels on other devices and partners with mobile operators to build Nintendo-specific mobiles, and integrates their technology, looking starting a new arms race between Nintendo and Android/iTunes. Smartphones comprise 85%+ of market, and $12b in gaming revenue.
• 2015. Nintendo launches new channels and branded mobile device to start a bitter mobile war. 4-way race between Nintendo, Playstation-powered Android devices, iPhones, and possible otherOS left out in cold (PalmOS by HP, BlackBerry, Symbian, ect). iPhone loses market share in the race, as it begins to fall in disfavor among mobile users. 

All IMO, but I think we'll see something like this. In the end, its my opinion that unless the 3DS offers some sort of radical technology, its doomed to this scenario, as my Android smartphone gets far more game time than my DS ever did....And I am far and away from being the only person on VGC, or any other gaming forum that has made this switch. It was totally painless, which is the scary thing, as there is a huge difference between PC/Console which many people like to equate the handheld wars to.....The problem is that Nintendo handhelds are very similar to smartphones...Unless that changes in some radical way, consumers will have a difficult time 2-3 years from now differentiating between a 3DS for $200 or using the phone in their back pocket.