I'll say 110k first week, 180k first month, 410k LTD. USA only.

It'll be a frontloaded game with short legs.

Better than the PSP games.

not as much as MW2 :D

Hope you guys realize that the game is selling so well it is actually 'sold out' on Amazon.com and is in back order phase. This info might be useful for the guys predicting less than 100k for week.

Not to mention the game is the 7th best selling game at Gamestop.com right now.

Product said: Hope you guys realize that the game is selling so well it is actually 'sold out' on Amazon.com and is in back order phase. This info might be useful for the guys predicting less than 100k for week.

but that doesn't tell you how much the supplier shipped to amazon

obviously, their going to have less copies of MH3 shipped to the warehouse compared to halo 3. I'm not saying this game isn't going to sell 1 mil its first week, all I'm saying is that if Amazon has say 500 copies that's not really useful

but I guess your right it is kinda helpful

None of you guys think this game will have long term legs?

Maybe I'm just being hopeful but once this drops in price I can see it becoming the game Mom's get for their boys who are tried of the more kiddie games (as opposed in investing in an HD system) and also for some older folks with a lot of time on their hands, some of the WoW crowd perhaps giving it a very long shelf life.

thelifatree said: Product said: Hope you guys realize that the game is selling so well it is actually 'sold out' on Amazon.com and is in back order phase. This info might be useful for the guys predicting less than 100k for week. but that doesn't tell you how much the supplier shipped to amazon   obviously, their going to have less copies of MH3 shipped to the warehouse compared to halo 3. I'm not saying this game isn't going to sell 1 mil its first week, all I'm saying is that if Amazon has say 500 copies that's not really useful   but I guess your right it is kinda helpful

That's true, but to see all 10 Amazon warehouses (there isn't just one) in the US out of stock of a video game can't be seen as anything but a good thing for sales. Not to mention what I said about it being on the Gamestop best sellers. I say above 100k first week. Won't go over 200k for the month, but next month I see it doing good sales as well. It will be in the top 20 NPD this month, but how far up it goes will depend on the supply and demand obviously.

This is what blows my mind.  I mean, what compelling argument could people have for Tri underselling the PSP games?  Tri is getting a bigger marketing blitz, a free (disc) demo, is on a machine that can actually sell games outside Japan and even benefits from Nintendo distribution/promotion in EU/AU.

And yet, like half the estimates in here put it at or below PSP figures? :/

I know it doesn't say much, but it is presently no. 6 in Gamestop's best seller list at http://www.gamestop.com/browse/search.aspx?N=0 , even above the Wii - when was the last time a Wii game got there? Let's hope that is yet another good sign.

Hmm...
The game is getting marvelous reactions from gamers here on VGC and everyone is saying "sold out here" and "sold out there."

If it does somehow debut to something lower than 100k, or the first two weeks don't manage 175k in America, I will be devastated haha

Look at who's making those predictions though...  They don't want it to do well for whatever reason - I'd reckon because it's on Wii, it's not on PS3, or both.