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Could GT5 the lowest selling GT game?

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Considering the userbase, the developing time, the competition & substitution...could GT5 be the lowest selling GT game of the franchise?



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The user base argument is completely invalid and irrelevant. I don't understand what development time has to do with sales. Competition has always sold the way it has been doing recently in the past. Its not like there is an upswing of peopple jumping on board with those games.

That being said, yes, it COULD be the lowest selling game in the series. But not for the reasons you list.



well it could be...

10m is the norm though for GT... we shall see.

there is a lot more choice in the racing genre these days thats for sure.



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It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.

God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill.



                                                                                                                                            

Just had a look at GT4's numbers for Week 1 (we don't have the complete figures for GT3 or GT2's first week) and it did 2.5mill Week 1. If GT5 DID do the 1.1-1.5mill Week 1 as i predicted, it would be a pretty low opening for the franchise. I stand by it though, even if the PS3 is a different beast from it's predecessors.

With strong marketing & critical acclaim, it's possible to outdo that prediction, however.



                                                                                                                                            

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I can see two possible reasons for this to happen

1) GT5 ends up being crappy. Unlikely.
2) the global population of racing sims fans has decreased since the last instament of the game. Possible, I guess



CGI-Quality said:
It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.

God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill.

As far as MGS and GOW go, they were never huge franchises in the first place, there was always room for growth, I don't think the GOWIII/MGS4 selling more argument holds any water as far as GT5 is concerned, imo of course

Logically, of course it should be the lowest selling, I know we hear about userbase not mattering, and it most cases it doesnt, but if you had a PS2/PS1, you HAD to have a GT game, I don't think PS3 has the same fans in it's userbase anymore, there were a lot of casual PS2 people that bought GT.

 

I reckon it'll do 8 -10, Halo and MW2 have proved a game can do those sales on that kind of userbase, the only reason I don't think it'll do as well as previous games, is that I just don't think racing games are that big anymore.



 

CGI-Quality said:
It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.

God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill.

1.1mil is too conservative, considering Prologue did almost 700k in its first week without including digital downloads.

GOW3 managed 1.1mil in its first week, and Kratos doesn't command anywhere near the same power as the GT franchise. Moreover, GT5 will release in the holidays vs GOW3 releasing in March.

@ Bayuum: it's worth considering several things...

  • it's the first full Gran Turismo of this generation and that always a huge plus (CGI pointed out two good examples, and there plenty more, where a franchise's first release on a new generation defies expectations)
  • install base isn't all that important - it's the first 20-30 million that contribute most of the purchases of hardcore or flagship franchises; think of it as a graph where the line suddenly curves steeply upwards - the install base might take off sharply from 40mil to 100mil, but this doesn't affect the sales of a title like Gran Turismo proportionately... not even close
  • the simple fact that Prologue has sold ~4.5 million copies (inc. digital downloads) in 2 years... that's an expensive demo achieving an 8% attach rate... crazy...


Seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.

God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill.

As far as MGS and GOW go, they were never huge franchises in the first place, there was always room for growth, I don't think the GOWIII?MGS4 selling more argument holds any water as far as GT5 is concerned, imo of course

Logically, of course it should be the lowest selling, I know we here about userbase not mattering, and it most cases it doesnt, but if you had a PS2/PS1, you HAD to have a GT game, I don't think PS3 has the same fans in it's userbase anymore, there were a lot of casual PS2 people that bought GT.

 

I reckon it'll do 8 -10, Halo and MW2 have proved a game can do those sales on that kind of userbase, the only reason I don't think it'll do as well as previous games, is that I just don't think racing games are that big anymore.

MGS1 & 2 sold higher numbers than any other in the series though. It had already lost sales by Snake Eater. God of War is the one that makes more sense, in conjunction with your reasoning.



                                                                                                                                            

yes, the game would need to play catchup for years to get to the other gt games