wholikeswood on 10 April 2010
| CGI-Quality said: It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen. God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill. |
1.1mil is too conservative, considering Prologue did almost 700k in its first week without including digital downloads. 
GOW3 managed 1.1mil in its first week, and Kratos doesn't command anywhere near the same power as the GT franchise. Moreover, GT5 will release in the holidays vs GOW3 releasing in March.
@ Bayuum: it's worth considering several things...
- it's the first full Gran Turismo of this generation and that always a huge plus (CGI pointed out two good examples, and there plenty more, where a franchise's first release on a new generation defies expectations)
- install base isn't all that important - it's the first 20-30 million that contribute most of the purchases of hardcore or flagship franchises; think of it as a graph where the line suddenly curves steeply upwards - the install base might take off sharply from 40mil to 100mil, but this doesn't affect the sales of a title like Gran Turismo proportionately... not even close
- the simple fact that Prologue has sold ~4.5 million copies (inc. digital downloads) in 2 years... that's an expensive demo achieving an 8% attach rate... crazy...
