CGI-Quality said:
wholikeswood said:
CGI-Quality said:
wholikeswood said:
CGI-Quality said:
It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.
God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill. |
1.1mil is too conservative, considering Prologue did almost 700k in its first week without including digital downloads. 
GOW3 managed 1.1mil in its first week, and Kratos doesn't command anywhere near the same power as the GT franchise. Moreover, GT5 will release in the holidays vs GOW3 releasing in March.
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Indeed. But just as with Final Fantasy XIII vs Final Fantasy XII in Japan, GT5 could perform lower Week 1 than GT4 did. I'm not sayiny that's for certain, but if GT5 is going to do 2-2.5mill (as GT4 did) America is really going to need to back it up.
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Yakuza 4 - first week = 380k
MGS4 - first week = 480k
Gran Turismo is undeniably larger than either. GT5 will probably open to at least 550k first week over there.
I just can't see how you can logically stand by a potential opening week of 1.1mil when Japan alone will contribute approximately half of that.
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Nothing is for certain, of course, and my prediction may end up FAR too low, which is fine, it wouldn't be the first time.
But right now, I'm curious about America.
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That's fair enough - I completely agree and accept that racing as a videogame genre has lost a great deal of popularity in America.
That said, how curious about America are you?
It's just, if we take ~600k for Japan and, for example's sake, ~1mil in Europe and then we say that not a single copy of GT5 leaves the shelves in America in the first week... we still hit ~1.6mil - that's higher than the top end of your prediction and we're not even including America...
