Judging by the footage of SOCOM 4 it has alot better graphics and is more mainstream now.. + hardcore fanbase = 4mil sales LTD + possible first hardcore game with move = 4.5-5m LTD

But move can make hardcore fans turnaway too. :D but 4mil is very very high mark.. i think 2 mil look alright thats also if its advertise properly... FPSes r too many n i think loyal fanbase is more of a myth for SOCOM now.. u can have loyal fanbase only if u r churning out a title a year of same quality.. 

My guess is they will forecast 14 millions units shipped and will adjust the forecast depending on the holydays.

14 millions is doable as they starting the 2011 financial year with PS3 low on stock at most US retailers. So to ship 14 millions units they most likely only have to sell 12.5 to 13 million units...

How does MAG show anything about Socom's genre or struggles? One is an online only FPS while the other is a full offline campaign + online TPS.

Socom Confrontation was also not made by Zipper and was online only. Socom 4 will be a full fledged title made by Zipper as well as be the first true installment of the series on the PS3.

There is also the chance that the newly created MAG fanbase, since I highly doubt all MAG players are part of the old Socom faithful, will probably flock over to Socom 4 along with the old Socom faithful.

Just saying, declining sales of a series that had 3 games on the previous console doesn't guarantee anything.

Well the PS2 had 4 Socom games, but Combined Assault came out the year the PS3 was unveiled.

But I'm confident Socom 4 will hit 2-3 million units within the FY.

Well this year is around 13 mil and a good increase on lasts, so 15 mil sounds very likely.

U also forgot to mention FF13 verses (which will be very big) and at around about that time we should see another Uncharted & GOW game released.

My Gamestop friend said that they have Socom 4 as releasing January 11th, 2011.

If that's true then my prediction is likely screwed. That would only give it 2 and a half months.

GT5 will sell 5m 1st year 1.7-8m ltd. socom is a guaranteed 4m life sales.

4 million for Sony is possible. Depending if it releases this year.