If they aim to copy the features that Sony announced, such as load times being near nonexistent and ray tracing HW, in both SKUs, my guess is the Lockhart is going to be $399. This means that the PS5 is going to be just $100 more for a system that is 3x the power, if leaks are accurate. And with PS5 being B/C with the PS4, I see most people who gamed on the PS4, sticking with the PS5, since they can sell their PS4s and get a system that plays both last gen and next gen games. In this case, I really don't see the Lockhart selling any better than the XBO. There were times when the XBO was on sale for $50+ less than the PS4, yet that still didn't change its fortunes, or even cause it to outsell the PS4 in the XBO's strongest market, the US. And that was against a system that was ~40% more powerful. This would be one that is 200% more powerful if the 4Tflops leak is accurate. God help them if Sony takes a bigger hit and sell for $449. Or if by some magic they still hit that $399 price.
The only way I think MS can sell the Lockhart at $299 is if they either take a huge loss, which MS has shown this gen they really don't have much interest in, or it lacks quite a few features that Sony is making standard next gen for consoles, i.e. ray tracing HW and a SSD to practically eliminate load times, as well as 4K (at least 4K CB for the more graphic intensive games.) At that point, you are correct, and people are going to start wondering what's lacking in the Lockhart to make it that low. Of course, that will be the general consumer audience. The core gamers that make up the majority of early adopters will already know the deal with the Lockhart and will avoid it like the plague. They will want a real jump over this gen, not a half-step that seems almost pointless.
Well a $399 and $499 MS strategy could make sense, like the $299 and $399 PS4 strategy this gen. That would allow consumers who wanted a better SKU but not something too expensive, to move up to PS5 or Anaconda at $499. It does leave the door open for PS to subsidize PS5 and potentially drop it $50-$100, but you would likely assume that MS would have anticipated this and would just make sure to keep a $100 gap between Lockhart and PS5 at all times.
The big problem XB1 had by the time it had worthy price cuts and better looking hardware, is that it's name was tarnished by then. PS4 already had the momentum and there was little MS could do at that point. The bundles in addition to the price cut's that didn't help much further prove that. Once a new gen starts though, assuming XB1X and maybe even XB1S get scrapped, a quality low priced SKU with the games to back it up, will have another chance to shake things up next gen.
I've always thought the 4TF $299 model just didn't make sense. If XB1X is 6TF I find it hard to believe that Lockhart would be any less than that. Now if it has all the bells and whistles, then maybe 4TF was necessary to keep the price down below $399, which shouldn't matter all that much if it's clearly marketed as a 1080p/60 unit. If Lockhart ends up below $399, I don't see any logic in making Anaconda more than $499. Too much gap will also make PS5 more appealing.
Now if PS5 can hit $499 at it's leaked specs, then you could also guess that Lockhart at $399 could very well be more than 6TF. The better the performance Lockhart was at that price, the tougher it would be for PS5 at $499. However, the closer Lockhart would be to PS5, the less room either company probably may have to drop the price, so if PS bites the bullet and takes another $50 hit, MS may not have the wiggle room to move Lockhart down $50 as well to keep the $100 gap.
Adding just the third console to the mix really complicates things, because this can play out in so many different ways with that combo. The advantage PS has is that unless 'XB2's' launch much later than PS5, PS should be able to sit back and watch MS to announce first, and can plan around it like they did with Pro. They can't completely change the console, but they can make adjustments so PS5 can fit in wherever they think works best for them.
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