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The game will sell more than 200k ... DMC4 did that ammount and it was far less popular than MGS4 in every way . MGS4 at this point , untill FFXIII will be released is the biggest game for the PS3 in Japan . Also , maybe everyone forgot , but PO actually sold more in Japan than in the US or Others , so maybe the market had changed a bit since Snake Eater IMO ...

Im expecting low-end 300k first week sales , and 600k LT in Japan . High - end I would say 450k-500k first week to 800-850k LT :)